Musharraf plays his last
ace By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - President General Pervez
Musharraf's second coup was his ace card to extend
his stay in power. Washington's tacit approval for
the implementation of "extraordinary powers" was
conditional on increased endeavors against
militancy in Pakistan in support of the US-led
"war on terror". But with Musharraf having played
his last card, anything could happen.
Musharraf's declaration of an emergency on
Saturday, which, according to Pakistani Minister
for Parliamentary Affairs Sher
Afghan, is a blend of
emergency and martial law, is primarily aimed at
preventing the Supreme Court from invalidating
Musharraf's October 6 victory in presidential
polls.
Following the declaration, troops
entered the Supreme Court building in Islamabad
and "escorted" Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry
out, his services "terminated". Chaudhry, who,
along with six other judges had declared the
emergency null and void, announced he would
continue his struggle. The president of the
Pakistan Supreme Court Bar Association Aitzaz
Ahsan and other members of the lawyers' body were
also arrested. Scores of lawyers were arrested in
Karachi on Monday during a protest rally outside
the High Court.
However, Musharraf,
playing to audiences in the West, has done his
best to paint the emergency as a declaration of
war against Islamic militancy, especially in the
tribal areas, where the army is already fully
engaged. For instance, speaking on national
television on Sunday, Musharraf "appealed" to the
West to understand the necessity for imposing the
emergency.
The crisis in Pakistan
coincides with a fresh Taliban offensive in
southwest and northwest Afghanistan, in addition
to the main battle in the southeast. The Western
command in Afghanistan sees Pakistan's North
Waziristan and South Waziristan on the border with
Afghanistan as the epicenter of these major
Taliban maneuvers.
As a result, Washington
had little choice but to give Musharraf the green
light for his emergency as it desperately needs
his help.
Musharraf has placed scores of
judges under house arrest, implying that they had
sided with the militancy in releasing over 60
"dangerous terrorists", besides reopening the Lal
Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad. The hardline
mosque had been closed since troops stormed it in
July to flush out militants.
Many
political opponents and human-rights activists
have been arrested, while a list of journalists to
be detained was due to be finalized on Monday. The
electronic media have also been disrupted.
More than 50 defiant judges are likely to
become the flagbearers of a new struggle against
the authorities, despite their house arrest.
Cricketer-turn-politician Imran Khan, who
emerged as the most prominent voice of civil
society in earlier struggles of the judiciary, has
apparently escaped house arrest. He is underground
at present and is negotiating with the bar
councils for a powerful joint struggle to mobilize
the masses on the streets.
Musharraf is
likely to announce a schedule for national
elections by Thursday - they were due to take
place in January. Former premier Benazir Bhutto,
earmarked in a US-initiated plan for a
powersharing deal with Musharraf, has returned
from a trip to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates,
where she had previously lived in exile. She
traveled there last Thursday and apparently
returned at the instigation of the US to support
Musharraf in a transition of power. The thorny
issue of Musharraf, the army's chief of staff,
giving up his uniform has been put on the back
burner.
Back on the border In
the bigger picture, on Sunday fresh troops (all
non-Pashtun) were mobilized for a new operation in
North-West Frontier Province. At the same time,
militants in South Waziristan released 211
soldiers they had been holding captive for several
weeks after receiving assurances of a staggered
army withdrawal from the area. Tribal elders are
the guarantors of the deal.
This deal
places the decision-makers in military
headquarters in Rawalpindi in a bind as Musharraf,
having received Washington's "blessing" for now,
should be waging war, not making deals with
militants.
Whether Musharraf survives this
new storm is one issue, but what is really at
stake is the future of the "war on terror" in the
region.
Should militants and the political
opposition - temporarily after the same goal -
force out Musharraf, fighting the US war in
Pakistan would be very heavy baggage for his
successors.
Syed Saleem Shahzad
is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He
can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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