Page 2 of
2 Playing South Asia's World War III
game By Chan Akya
almost guarantee substantial
support for fundamentalism arising from the
(likely) economic decline in years to come.
Beijing's support Then again,
nothing in South Asia moves independently. The
outcome of the game in Pakistan will likely be
decided in other capitals around the region, most
importantly Beijing and New Delhi. This time
though, it is inaction rather than action that will
lead
the way forward.
Beijing is pleased with
Musharraf, and has been eager to buttress both his
military and political standing. Unlike the US,
Beijing has been careful to stay on the side of
Pakistan through thick and thin, in a series of
cooperative agreements that have been in force
since the early 1970s.
That said,
Beijing's strategic objective of restricting
India's military might is completely obsolete now
given the vast capabilities gap that has grown
with the latter, effectively meaning that no
Chinese planner takes India's military threats
seriously. In contrast, the Indian market is
hugely attractive to Chinese companies looking for
a place to sell their goods away from the
recession-headed US market. Additionally, a number
of raw materials and semi-finished goods are being
sourced by China from India. Thus, the strategic
objectives in Beijing have changed, to ensure
greater economic if not political cooperation.
As a thorn in the flesh of the US, a road
to the Middle East and a trusted military ally,
Pakistan is almost indispensable for China. That
alone guarantees that Musharraf will attract
support from Beijing in coming months, but only so
long as relations with India aren't damaged.
Essentially, China is hamstrung on any
intervention in the current crisis - it has no
options in the Pakistan game.
Delhi
belly That leaves New Delhi. Normally,
India would play a "negative" role in any crisis
in Pakistan, due mainly to the historic animosity
to India shown by all the important players in
Pakistan - Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif, not to
mention any of the coterie of Islamic
fundamentalists. In effect, the leader seen as
kowtowing to India is most likely to lose out in
Pakistan's power struggle.
Additionally,
my opinion of the current Indian government has
always been low, driven by the absolute lack of
strategic thinking in the corridors of power - a
frequent problem with the Congress party. However,
recent events in India itself will help change
this. As I wrote in a recent article [3], the
government at the center looks set to fall due to
the machinations of India's communists, who are
busy re-enacting their age-old class warfare with
the US. The rejection of the nuclear deal with the
US, announced in a major policy reversal this
week, will likely lead to new national elections
within the next six months. Before that though,
expect news from the economy to get worse - lower
growth and higher inflation for starters.
In an environment of distrust between the
Congress party and the communists, it is likely
that the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
gains, especially given the recent wave of
anti-incumbent elections across the country.
Lacking leaders with national recognition, the BJP
is now led by a motley collection of regional
leaders, including some particularly unsavory
characters who were accused of causing anti-Muslim
riots.
I expect that any government formed
out of this messy situation will be another
coalition, albeit one that would exclude the
communists. With many regional parties to the
fore, and mounting problems with inflation and
infrastructure, it is unlikely that any government
in India will focus on anything but its own
survival. Thus, even as strategic objectives may
dictate otherwise, India too will not play the
Pakistan game.
Slide to
anarchy All this leaves us to conclude that
the biggest players in the new game in Pakistan
will be the Islamic fundamentalists who appear set
against both Musharraf and Bhutto, and the
neo-conservatives in Washington who would like any
alternative to the Islamists to emerge.
There is no easy way to solve the
sub-optimal results, and with the middle classes
apparently uniting under the banner of Pakistan's
lawyers, it becomes more likely that a violent
change of government occurs at some point. In
turn, this unfolds a key scenario in the slide to
World War III that I discussed in an article [4]
last summer, namely the acquisition of Pakistan's
nuclear weapons by Islamic fundamentalists. The
rest, as they say, will be history.
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