The general pulls a fast
one By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - A few days after President
General Pervez Musharraf declared a state of
emergency on November 10, Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the secret
service agency, met with leaders of the opposition
parties to decide on a roadmap for a caretaker
administration leading to general parliamentary
elections in January and then to a post-election
government.
The opposition parties,
including the six-party religious alliance, the
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, and the ruling Pakistan Muslim
League, finalized a seat
adjustment mechanism through which these leading
parties would receive significant representation
in the next government.
At the same time,
the ISI had a separate meeting with the Pakistan
People's Party and assured its leader, Benazir
Bhutto, that she would head a caretaker
administration as prime minister.
As a
result of these meetings, the opposition response
to the declaration of the state of emergency was
relatively muted - most reaction came from the
legal profession, outraged at the sacking of
Supreme Court judges, as well as the chief
justice, and the suspension of the constitution.
But this week, the day that Pakistan
finalized the details of a visit by US Deputy
Secretary of State John Negroponte, starting on
Friday, it also announced an interim government -
and without Bhutto. Mohammedmian Soomro, chairman
of Pakistan's Senate since 2003, was appointed
interim prime minister to prepare for the
parliamentary elections.
The message from
the government to Bhutto was that it wanted a
"non-controversial" premier. Bhutto's reaction was
immediate and cutting - she called on Musharraf to
step down as president, something she had not done
before. But again the reaction of her supporters
and those of other opposition groups was muted and
they were unable to mobilize a significant show of
strength on the streets.
Even Imran Khan,
the leader of one of the smaller opposition
parties, Tehrik-e-Insaf, was handed over to the
authorities by students of one of the parties
close to his.
So at the time of
Negroponte's visit, there are unlikely to be any
opposition rallies, and he will be advised that
the only players in the ring are militants,
including the Taliban, and the Pakistani military
headed by Musharraf. And Negroponte will be told
that the military is quite capable of dealing with
this threat.
In other words, the
US-inspired plan for Musharraf to form a political
alliance with Bhutto is off the table - for now at
least. Lulled by Musharraf's intrigues, Bhutto has
not been able to stitch together an alliance of
opposition parties.
In the meantime,
perhaps as a show for Negroponte, Musharraf has
switched on the "war on terror" in the Swat Valley
in North-West Frontier Province. Over the past few
days there has been a surge in military operations
in the area against militants, including the
Pakistani Taliban.
Musharraf can flick the
off switch at any time, subject to the demands of
the militants. They have already been granted
their call for sharia law in the Swat Valley, but
the real issue is the withdrawal of Pakistani
troops from the key areas from which supplies are
sent to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Either
way, Negroponte knows that he will be dealing with
Musharraf, who for now has effectively sidelined
the opposition.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau
Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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