Pakistan put in its real
place By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Despite President General Pervez
Musharraf's international support falling fast
after his imposition of virtual martial law by
suspending the constitution and imposing a state
of emergency, and despite visiting US Deputy
Secretary of State John Negroponte's pleas for a
return to political normalcy, the stark reality is
that the only issue that matters for Washington is
Pakistan's ability to fight the "war on terror" -
and that under Musharraf.
The political
baggage of pro-American politicians like former
premier Benazir Bhutto could
compromise the "war on terror", while and White
House still does not see the very pro-Western Vice
Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani,
as being able to independently deliver on this
front. Therefore, Negroponte's two meetings with
Kiani and a 30-minute telephone conversation with
Bhutto at the weekend only emphasize the concerted
efforts to bring all liberal and democratic forces
into line for the fight against terror.
The George W Bush administration is
banking on Musharraf being the only person who has
what it takes to fight the "war on terror", no
matter the cost.
Since returning from
exile last month, Bhutto, after being hailed as an
ally of Musharraf, has turned against the general,
even talking to "hardliners" like Qazi Hussain
Ahmed of the Jamaat-i-Islami, as well as to
opposition figure Imran Khan about a political
alliance against Musharraf. Bhutto has temporarily
shelved her pro-American rhetoric.
On the
military front, Kiani is considered more
pro-American than Musharraf, but while Washington
analyzes him as an excellent soldier who performs
under a good commander, he is not considered a
very astute planner capable of taking independent
military decisions that could have political
repercussions.
Kiani, a former head of the
powerful Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), is
expected to take over leadership of the army when
Musharraf finally quits that post. He is not
considered to have performed particularly well at
the politically-charged ISI, and during the crisis
at the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in
Islamabad this year, the operation to storm the
mosque was commanded by the 10th corps of the
Pakistani army and its intelligence units, and not
by paramilitary forces and the ISI.
All
this leaves only Musharraf. Although he has drawn
flak from the US from time to time for not being
hard and energetic enough in cracking down on
militancy and foreign al-Qaeda elements, he has
allowed several US air strikes in Pakistan.
Thousands of people have been held without trail,
some of them handed over to the US, and when the
courts challenged him, he silenced them them, as
in the current state of emergency.
Simply
put, even his strongest critics, like US Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice, accept that the "war on
terror" could be a serious casualty as a result of
any regime change in Pakistan in the current
circumstances.
Boiling on the
border In the longer term, though, the
fight against terror could prove to be costly for
Pakistan.
The flashpoint has moved from
the North Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal
areas on the border with Afghanistan to the Swat
Valley in North-West Frontier Province, where the
army has mobilized tanks, artillery and an
additional division (up to 20,000 soldiers). The
director general of military operations of the
armed forces announced at the weekend that a
massive operation could be begin any time.
The Pakistani Taliban in adjacent tribal
areas have made it clear they will not stay
silent. Talking to the BBC Pashtu service, Maulana
Faqir Muhammad of Bajaur Agency claimed he could
raise a militia (lashkar) of 10,000 men
from the Bajaur, Mohmand and Dir areas to fight
against the army.
The army has failed in a
month-long operation to wrest the Swat Valley from
militants loyal to Mullah Fazlullah, who now
controls the majority of districts after driving
out the Pakistani administration and police. The
Swat Valley is only a two-hour drive from Peshawar
and four hours from the capital, Islamabad.
In anticipation of strong reaction in the
capital to stepped-up military efforts, a number
of senior politicians have applied for
bullet-proof cars and special security protection.
Acutely aware of the dangers involved in
further stoking the fires in Swat Valley, the ISI
has moved the founder of the powerful
Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammedi (Movement for
the Enforcement of Islamic Laws), Maualana Sufi
Muhammed, from jail to a hospital. Sufi Muhammed,
the father-in-law of Mullah Fazlullah, opposes the
latter's attempts to impose sharia law across
Pakistan. Sufi Muhammed is seen as the best hope
of cooling things down in the valley.
Washington, however, wants Mullah
Fazlullah's network, a precious Taliban asset in
Pakistan, eliminated altogether as it feeds the
Taliban struggle in Afghanistan with money, men
and resources.
The US is not bothered
about political niceties - and this is what it
expects from Musharraf.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau
Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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