KARACHI - Since seizing power in a
bloodless coup in 1999, Pakistan's President
General Pervez Musharraf has promised more than
once that he would shed his uniform. Now he is set
to finally keep his word, likely as early as next
week.
Attorney General Malik Abdul Qayyum
said on Tuesday that Musharraf will resign as
chief of army staff once the Supreme Court
validates his victory in the presidential election
of October 6. He will then be formally sworn in as
a civilian president and
prepare for national
elections scheduled for January 8.
The
October presidential election had been challenged
in court, leading to hundreds of members of the
judiciary being removed and the imposition of
emergency rule. The new members of the Supreme
Court - appointed by Musharraf - have now
dismissed all petitions against the result.
The government has freed more than 3,000
people jailed since the November 3 emergency
declaration and plans to release 2,000 others
soon, an Interior Ministry spokesman said on
Tuesday.
There is, however, a disturbing
irony in the course of events leading up to
Musharraf's reinvention as a civilian president.
While the United States is finally satisfied that
Musharraf has followed Washington's dotted lines
in the "war on terror", history will record that
over the past few years the region has seen the
emergence of the neo-Taliban not only in
Afghanistan but in Pakistan as well.
In
this context, Musharraf's visit to Saudi Arabia
this week is an attempt to relay though King
Abdullah to the George W Bush administration that
what is good for the US is not necessarily good
for Pakistan, that is, Bush's attempts to dictate
the course of national politics have in fact had
counterproductive results.
Thus, while
Bush this week lauded Musharraf as having "done
more for democracy in Pakistan than any modern
leader has", it is pertinent to consider the
downside in earning such praise.
A war
path fraught with danger Washington
tightened the noose around Islamabad early this
year with tough demands that Pakistan stop
cross-border infiltration of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda.
The US established benchmarks on
progress in this regard, which were pegged to the
continued delivery of American military and
economic aid to Pakistan, worth billions of
dollars. From April, high-level US officials
visited Pakistan on a regular basis to keep up the
pressure for the implementation of political and
military programs that would block the rise of the
Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Washington pointed
out that the Taliban's "precious assets" were
pouring out from the radical Lal Masjid (Red
Mosque) in Islamabad to join the militancy in the
North and South Waziristan tribal areas and
beyond.
An operational plan was handed
over to Islamabad and it was implemented on July 3
when the Lal Masjid was stormed, leading to the
deaths of scores of militants. The army was
redeployed in the tribal areas and strong
contingents of military and paramilitary troops
were sent into the Swat Valley in North-West
Frontier Province (NWFP).
Washington was
adamant that Pakistan stick to the plan and made
it clear that if Musharraf wavered, North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) forces from Afghanistan
would take matters into their own hands and pursue
targets deep inside Pakistan.
On the
political front, Musharraf was forced to strike a
deal with former premier Benazir Bhutto. All
corruption cases against her were withdrawn and
she was allowed to return to Pakistan after years
of self-exile to promote an anti-religious
alliance.
From July, the White House has
had no complaints over Islamabad's commitment in
both letter and spirit. The Lal Masjid was
"sanitized" and the Waziristans were bombed in
October on the basis of intelligence shared with
NATO.
A grand jirga (council) was
organized in Kabul to explore ways of engaging the
Taliban in peace dialogue, followed by talks
directly with the Taliban in Quetta, Pakistan.
For the first time in years, the US was
not having to urge Pakistan to "do more", yet
paradoxically the situation on the ground was
spiraling out of control.
Between July and
November, NATO's casualties have been the worst
since US-led forces invaded Afghanistan in 2001 to
oust the Taliban. A late Taliban offensive has
seen them recover large swathes of territory. For
the first time, they are united under one
leadership with clear objectives.
At the
same time, NWFP has virtually been lost. It has
always been a tribal hotspot, but while the Soviet
occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s radicalized
NWFP to some extent, Islamabad's writ was never
challenged. Indeed, in the nation's 60-year
history, Pakistan has always successfully
suppressed armed rebellions in the province. Now,
for the first time, Pakistan's authority over NWFP
has all but ended.
As a result, the
Taliban's cross-border activities have increased
an estimated 10-fold compared to previous years
and the previously calm - but still very scenic -
Swat Valley has fallen into the hands of radical
clerics.
These indeed are the unintended
consequences or blowback of the "war on terror"
that Pakistan has prosecuted at the behest of the
US. Similarly, the political road map involving
Bhutto lies in tatters. Bhutto will now have no
dealings with Musharraf and has already accused
parties backing him of trying to rig the ballots
ahead of January's polls - even hinting that she
and other opposition parties might boycott the
elections.
As Musharraf hangs up his
uniform for the last time, these are the realities
he faces - Pakistan's burning tribal areas and a
volatile political arena centered on an embittered
opposition.
But at least Bush is happy.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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