Strings attached to Sharif's return By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - There was a day when former premier Nawaz Sharif was part of
Pakistan's ruling military oligarchy. He tried to be independent and a
strongman, and consequently was removed from power in a bloodless coup by now
President General Pervez Musharraf on October 12, 1999.
However, after serving a year in jail and then going into exile in Saudi Arabia
to avoid charges of treason and hijacking, he has once again dealt with the
military and finalized a deal with the director general of Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant
General Nadeem Taj, in Saudi Arabia. As a result, they both returned to
Pakistan - on flights half an hour apart - on Sunday.
Sharif returned to the country two months ago, but was hustled straight back
onto a plane to Saudi Arabia. This time there was no such drama as the
circumstances have changed.
According to Asia Times Online contacts, a retired military brigadier and the
publisher of a large media group were involved in backroom negotiations between
the military, Sharif and Saudi Arabia which resulted in him being given the
go-ahead to return to Pakistan provided "he did not make trouble".
Musharraf is expected to be sworn in as a civilian president this week, which
means he will step down as chief of the army staff in preparation for national
elections in January.
According to the contacts, following the elections, Shabaz Sharif, the younger
brother of Nawaz, has been earmarked to lead a unity government comprising
liberal democratic forces, but under the umbrella of the military.
Initially, former premier Benazir Bhutto had been chosen for this job and she,
too, returned from exile, only to fall out with the United States-inspired plan
and Musharraf himself.
It is not yet clear what part Nawaz Sharif, considered a conservative and
traditionalist and an acceptable face for Pakistan's religious forces, will
play in this new political dispensation.
Just a day before his return, two devastating suicide attacks killed at least
16 people in the garrison town of Rawalpindi adjoining Islamabad. One attacker
targeted a vehicle carrying ISI personnel, the other a gate at the military's
general headquarters (GHQ).
The attacks serve as a strong hint to the Pakistani army to reverse its
intervention in the Taliban's fight against foreign forces in Afghanistan. The
attacks, impeccable sources at GHQ reveal, were based on precise intelligence.
However, the sources refused to name the victims or their ranks.
Mounting US pressure has forced Pakistan this year to do more in the fight
against Taliban and al-Qaeda forces in the country, leading to head-on
confrontation. As a result, Pakistan's channels of communication with militants
have been choked and the situation is reaching a point of no return in the
battle between the Pakistani Taliban and the Pakistani army.
The deal with Sharif has both internal and external aspects. The Pakistani
military is concerned that the "war on terror" is spilling far too much into
the country. The Pakistani Taliban already have a strong presence in the tribal
areas and in North-West Frontier Province.
Pakistan's leading security think-tank, the National Defense University, has
floated the idea that Afghanistan and Pakistan could be prevented from falling
into the clutches of extremism by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
forces withdrawing from Afghanistan and being replaced by troops from the
Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC).
Ironically, four Muslim countries with the strongest armies in the OIC are
non-Arab - Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Bangladesh. If a decision is taken
to send in the OIC, these four countries would be at the helm.
With the insurgency in Afghanistan spiraling out of control with every passing
day, Washington is giving an ear to this suggestion. But the biggest problem
would be for Muslim countries to find leaders to speak to the insurgents in a
spirit of mutual trust.
Otherwise, OIC forces could be just as much of a problem as NATO's. For
instance, if the militants declare the troops infidels, it would only add to
the hopelessness of the situation.
Apparently, the deal brokered by Saudi Arabia to allow Nawaz Sharif back into
Pakistan aims to bring his brother Shabaz into the spotlight. Nawaz Sharif had
personal interactions with Osama bin Laden (The
pawns who pay as powers play, Asia Times Online, June 22, 2005) many
times when both were planning to dislodge Bhutto's government in the late
1980s.
In Pakistan's charged environment, anything is worth a try, including this old
wine in a new bottle - it's worked before.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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