Strange bedfellows emerge in
Pakistan By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The runup to Pakistan's general
elections next month - seen by many as the
opportunity for a vital transformation of society
- has been characterized by the breakup of
opposition alliances and the emergence of an
eclectic yet potentially powerful
anti-establishment bloc which includes civil
society, militants and al-Qaeda.
One of
the key members of the Alliance for the
Restoration of Democracy, the Pakistan People's
Party of Benazir Bhutto, has
struck a
deal with President Pervez Musharraf; the Alliance
for All Parties Democratic Movement has been
rocked by the decision of Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan
Muslim League (PML-N) to contest the polls after
first backing a boycott; the six-party religious
alliance Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has been
jolted by the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) deciding to
remain steadfast with civil society and boycott
the elections.
On the face of it, the sole
beneficiary of these developments is the military
oligarchs as the mainstream religious and liberal
political parties will now contest the elections
on its terms, that is, in the absence of a
constitution, which legitimizes the military
anointed system.
This leaves the breakaway
and anti-status quo forces free to push their own
agendas and possibly rise to the fore by gaining
mass support. These include the flag bearers of
civil society, militants and the radical
Jamaat-i-Islami, and even al-Qaeda.
In an
important development, Baitullah Mehsud, the top
Pakistan Taliban leader, has warned candidates not
to contest the polls in the South Waziristan
tribal area, even though the pro-Taliban Pashtun
tribal-based Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) led by
Maulana Fazlur Rahman is the largest party in the
whole tribal belt, especially in North Waziristan
and South Waziristan.
So, with this call,
the militants now stand side-by-side with those
members of civil society - lawyers, sacked judges,
doctors and journalists - demanding that the
elections be boycotted, although for entirely
different reasons.
Indeed, the
significance of Mehsud's warning is that it is not
simply about the elections; it represents the
broader drive on the part of militants to
consolidate the establishment of an "Islamic
Emirates" beyond the Waziristans, where in large
parts Islamabad's rule is effectively
non-existent.
In the minds of the
militants, they envisage Afghanistan and the
Pashtun regions of Pakistan as part of their
Islamic Emirates, and once they seize this region,
they will march for the establishment of a global
caliphate.
In this regard, there have been
some developments.
Parts of the Durand
Line, the poorly marked 2,640-kilometer border
drawn in 1893 between Afghanistan and what is now
Pakistan, have in the past only been recognizable
by the Pakistan flags flown from buildings in
border villages. Technically, some of these
villages fell in Afghanistan, but the villagers
chose to be considered part of Pakistan.
However, following repeated Pakistani
military operations in the area against militants,
many of the Pakistani flags have come down. Friday
prayers in militant-controlled regions have been
suspended as the region has been declared darul
harb (enemy country) . And this year, the
Shura of the Mujahideen has decided to celebrate
Eidul Adha (one of two Muslim festivals that
follows the traditions of the Prophet Araham)
according to Mecca (on December 19) and not
according to the Pakistan government's Eid
(December 21).
This anti-establishment
theater has been built up mostly in political
isolation and now even Rahman's JUI has distanced
itself from the militants, with both sides
considering themselves rivals.
But
ironically, the JI, the leading urban-based
Islamic party which draws its support from
Western-educated people and which has little
representation in the tribal areas, now aims to
become the voice of the militants, which means
winning the hearts and minds of Pakistan's
Pashtuns.
"This is the first time we have
taken a decision based on our own convictions.
While we were in the MMA, our politics was
overshadowed by the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam, which
was taking us nowhere," Merajul Huda, a member of
the central executive committee of the JI and
deputy provincial chief of Sindh province, told
Asia Times Online.
"We were really in a
fix. We always tried to become the voice of the
people and tried to resign from Parliament on the
issue of the Waziristan [military] operations, but
the Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam never agreed. We tried to
resign when the anti-Islamic women's protection
bill was approved by the assembly, but the
Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam again refused to let us
resign," said Merajul.
"When Nawab Akber
Bugti [former chief minister of Balochistan
province] was killed in an extra-judicial killing,
we tried to resign. But once again the
Jamiat-i-Ulema said that he was an atheist and we
should not sacrifice our seats for a non-believer.
"We tried to convince them that it was
more an issue of civil rights than of beliefs, but
they tried their level best to stay in the
corridors of power. Now we are free and we will do
our style of politics. Even on pure religious
issues like the Lal Masjid [Red Mosque] operation,
Jamiat stood with the government," Merajul said,
referring to the military storming of the militant
mosque in Islamabad in July.
Unlike the
pro-Taliban JUI, which draws its support from
madrassas (seminaries)and traditional
tribal structures, the JI is a modern political
party which derives its strength from campuses,
trade unions and professional bodies.
The
Islami Jamait-i-Talaba, the student wing of the
JI, is the largest student union in the country
and considered a nursery of the national
leadership coming from the middle classes. The JI
also has a sizeable presence among lawyers,
doctors and engineers and has a large labor body,
the National Labor Federation. The JI has a
history of organizing effective street agitations.
"We faced some defections with our
decision to boycott [the January elections]. One
of our ex-members of Parliament has joined Nawaz
Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League and a few other
defections are expected, but we will stand by the
decision to boycott as we will gain from it. You
will see that the establishment will not allow
Sharif's PML to win the elections, and as a result
Sharif will be a loser. Meanwhile, we will
aggressively take up issues, whether it is
military operations in the tribal areas or
operation in Balochistan or the restoration of
judiciary," Meraj said. Musharraf sacked most of
the judiciary recently as he feared the courts
would invalidate his victory in presidential
elections.
Former premier Sharif, recently
returned from exile, is the founder of the All
Parties Democratic Alliance and was the driving
force behind the move for an opposition boycott of
the elections. This placed him as a leader of
civil society. But then he changed his mind and
said his PML-N would contest, so he has lost
significant support. Sharif himself has been
barred by the Election Commission from standing
over criminal charges related to his time in
government in 1999.
Adding to the
political drama, Asia Times Online contacts claim
that al-Qaeda will do its best to cause
disruptions through armed opposition.
Battlelines have now been clearly
established. On the one side is the military
establishment, which has under its wing most
mainstream political forces. On the other side are
the militants, the JI and several fringe parties
and civil society - and al-Qaeda. Strange, but
potentially powerful bedfellows.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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