US wants Pakistan to bite the
bullet By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - After more than six years,
Pakistan finds itself in probably the most
difficult position it has been in since signing on
as a partner in the US-led "war on terror".
The political turmoil created by the
recent assassination of former premier Benazir
Bhutto and the consolidation of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda in the country just months ahead of
another Taliban spring offensive in Afghanistan
have made Washington decidedly
anxious that Islamabad do
something decisive about the situation. But while
Pakistan wants to remain on side with the US, and
the West, by taking appropriate action against
militancy, this carries with it the grave danger
of exacerbating the situation, and opening up the
country to further terror.
A senior
Pakistani security official elaborated for Asia
Times Online, "We have actually been thrown into a
deep quagmire where we are not left with many
options. The CIA's presence in Pakistan has made
it impossible for Pakistan to handle the Taliban
problem independently and through dialogue. On the
other hand, there is no military solution on the
horizon against the Taliban and another [Pakistani
army] operation against militants would cause more
than serious repercussions."
The official,
speaking on condition of anonymity as his job does
not allow him to speak on the record, continued,
"Now we are at a crossroad and we feel threatened
that if this problem escalates it may give Western
powers and their regional allies a chance to
justify an attack on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
Therefore, we are walking a tightrope where, on
the one hand our strategic ties with the West are
at risk if we don't adhere to their demands, but
on the other hand our own internal security is at
risk.
"Nevertheless," he added, "nations
do take steps on a priority basis for their
internal security."
Reports from the US at
the weekend indicate that the George W Bush
administration wants to expand the authority of
the CIA and the military to conduct more
aggressive covert operations in Pakistan.
While a Pakistani Foreign Ministry
spokesman has officially dismissed the notion as
fanciful, this does not rule out the likelihood of
heavy CIA involvement on targets identified
through intelligence on both sides of the border.
The overriding goal will be to cut the
supply lines of the Taliban and al-Qaeda between
Pakistan and Afghanistan by squeezing them between
coalition forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan
forces across the border.
The boundaries
of the operation have been set on the basis of two
facts. These are al-Qaeda's bases and the
Taliban's supply lines from Pakistan into the
three southeastern Afghan provinces of Paktia,
Paktika and Khost and Helmand in the southwest.
Al-Qaeda bases have been located in Bajaur Agency
and North Waziristan while the Taliban's supply
lines have primarily been traced from South
Waziristan.
Pakistan's strategic quarters,
though, are extremely concerned over the possible
consequences of such a pincer operation, planned
at a time when general elections have already been
pushed back from this month to next and could be
delayed even further.
Compounding the
problem is the fact that the Pakistani military is
fast losing all of its gains in the Swat Valley in
North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). In response
to rising militancy in the valley, fueled by
Mullah Fazlullah, over the past few months the
army has cracked down, forcing the militants to
retreat into the tribal areas.
Al-Qaeda
responded by activating its network through
Maulana Faqir Muhammad, the local strongman of
Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Faqir, from Bajaur Agency, sent men and arms into
the valley, while Punjabi and Uzbek fighters from
the South Waziristan and North Waziristan tribal
areas joined hands with the militants. As a
result, the militants have fought back strongly
against the Pakistani army, which could pull back
in the coming days.
The Bush
administration is raising the military stakes at a
time when Pakistan is under fire from Washington
for not making adequate efforts in the "war on
terror". This disenchantment was captured by
Chester Bowles, a "liberal lion" of the Democratic
Party, who wrote in the New York Times recently,
"American military assistance to Pakistan in the
last 15 years will, I believe, be listed by
historians as among our most costly blunders."
The Washington Post also recently quoted
Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of
the foreign assistance sub-committee of the
Senate, as saying, "What is amazing to me about
our policy is that Pakistan is brimming with a
smart, educated, moderate center. As long as we
are pumping our money into security assistance and
putting all our eggs in the basket with [President
Pervez] Musharraf, we are making a critical
mistake."
There are recurrent calls in
Washington that Pakistan's multi-billion dollar
military aid package be reviewed or even stopped
if its performance is not found satisfactory.
Pakistani intelligence, however, is
acutely aware that militants are likely to unleash
attacks in the softer underbelly of the nation
should the Pakistani army (or the US Army) launch
new, vigorous attacks in the tribal areas. Cities
such as the port hub of Karachi, the capital
Islamabad and Peshawar in NWFP would be prime
targets.
The best that Pakistan can do is
attempt to walk a middle path, as it has done so
often in the past, even though both the militants
and Washington are demanding that Islamabad
complies 100% with their demands.
The
difficulties of this position are well illustrated
by an incident on Sunday in which al-Qaeda-backed
militants shot dead eight tribal leaders involved
in efforts to broker a ceasefire between security
forces and Pakistani Taliban commanders in the
northwest. The men, who were scheduled to meet
each other on Monday, were killed in separate
attacks in South Waziristan.
Part of
Musharraf's problem is that while he is
Washington's ally in Pakistan, he is also the
representative of the military oligarchy. Further,
his political survival has become heavily
dependent on slain Bhutto's Pakistan People's
Party (PPP). New PPP head, Bhutto's widower Asif
Zardari, is in contact with US officials and is in
tune with the "war on terror" and supports
Musharraf in this respect. But this PPP support
could be withdrawn at any time should it be
perceived that Musharraf is straying from the US
agenda.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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