US homes in on militants in
Pakistan By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
KARACHI - Another piece of the
United States' regional jigsaw is in place with
the completion of a military base in Afghanistan's
Kunar province, just three kilometers from Bajaur
Agency in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal
Areas.
Pakistani intelligence quarters
have confirmed to Asia Times Online that the base,
on a mountain top in Ghakhi Pass overlooking
Pakistan, is now operational. (This correspondent
visited the area last July and could clearly see
construction underway. See A fight to the death on Pakistan's
border Asia Times Online, July 17,
2007.)
The new US base is expected to
serve as the center of
clandestine special forces'
operations in the border region. The George W Bush
administration is itching to take more positive
action - including inside Pakistan - against
Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda militants
increasingly active in the area and bolstering the
insurgency in Afghanistan.
Pakistani
President Pervez Musharraf has officially rejected
US proposals to expand the US presence in
Pakistan, either through unilateral covert Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) operations or by joint
operations with Pakistani security forces, but
this is not necessarily the end of the matter,
especially as the situation in Afghanistan
deteriorates. According to reports, Mike
McConnell, the director of US national
intelligence, and CIA director General Michael
Hayden visited Pakistan this month to meet with
Musharraf.
A senior Pakistani security
official explained to Asia Times Online, "American
special forces have carried out clandestine
operations in the past, and Pakistan was not
informed. The Taliban and al-Qaeda also did not
realize what was happening with the
quick-as-a-wink hit-and-run operations in the
tribal areas. Pakistani intelligence only knew of
the operations after they happened. They included
the killing of high-value Taliban and al-Qaeda
commanders and high-value arrests," the official
said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"However, with the new Kunar base,
American special forces will carry out extended
operations, which means a limited war against
Taliban and al-Qaeda assets in the tribal areas.
These clandestine operations can be done with or
without Pakistan's consent."
In response,
the initial militant action is expected to be the
relocation of its key leadership away from the
immediate danger area. Efforts to disrupt the
vital supply lines of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO)from Pakistan into Afghanistan
will be stepped up. A further option is to
increase terror operations inside Pakistan as a
warning that the militants should be left alone.
The Taliban leadership is aware of the
danger posed by the new American base. Several
powerful attacks were mounted while it was under
construction, but they only managed to cause
delays.
The pressing problem is to find a
new safe haven for the high profile al-Qaeda
leadership. The area on both sides of the border -
the Chitral - is characterized by inhospitable
jungles and mazes of mountains and rivers,
stretching from Noorestan and Kunar provinces in
Afghanistan to the Bajaur Valley. Al-Qaeda leader
Osama bin Laden is known to have stayed in the
area. It is now a question of finding a safer
location for him - if he is still in the area -
and his colleagues.
US intelligence
spotted bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
twice in Bajaur Agency and attacked the area with
Predator drones. Zawahiri was unscathed, but
several militants and civilians were killed. Local
Taliban sources tell Asia Times Online that
Zawahiri had been moving in the area for more than
30 hours before he was spotted and targeted.
Apparently, he was to meet with bin Laden.
Going after NATO's arteries When
Pakistani militants occupied Pakistan's strategic
tunnel, which connects Peshawar, the capital of
North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) to the
cantonment town of Kohat in NWFP, the aim was to
attack military convoys. These, the Taliban
realized, were transporting supplies to Kohat air
base, from where they were being flown to the
American base in Khost in Afghanistan.
This move has effectively opened a new
front in Kohat and Darra Adam Khel - the biggest
arms and ammunition-manufacturing area in the
region. There were four attacks last week.
Another senior security official told Asia
Times Online, "Pakistan has conceded to many of
the [Pakistani] Taliban's demands for peace, such
as the release of fellow tribesmen. But if they
demand something like the closure of NATO's supply
lines from Pakistan, it is beyond Pakistan's
orbit. The Americans sought Pakistan's cooperation
[in the "war on terror"] , in return they pledged
billions of dollars in aid. But they wanted steady
supply lines for NATO forces in Afghanistan," the
official said.
"Pakistan has stretched
itself to the limit for the sake of peace in the
country, it has even struck deals with al-Qaeda
for it to stop attacking Pakistan. But if they
[al-Qaeda and militants] don't appreciate
Pakistan's interests and compulsions, then, like
[US President George W] Bush said after 9/11,
defeat is not an option. This is 2008, and we have
the world's most modern army and equipment. This
is not the time of British India, when only a
regiment could fight against tribals, and defeat
them. We can spare far more force and if we want
to, we can destroy them," the official said.
Change in militants' tactics Last week, militants used improvised explosive
devices near Peshawar to blow up a military
convoy. This is the first such incident of its
kind near a city against the Pakistani army.
Previously, such events only happened in the
tribal areas.
This indicates that while
the tribesmen might be facing a modern army,
rather than the thin British force of years ago,
the army now faces an urban guerrilla battle, not
one limited to remote mountains.
Clearly,
the militants, linked to a particular branch of
al-Qaeda called the Tafkiris, are preparing for an
Iraq-style guerrilla battle against Pakistan. The
Tafkiris - who class as infidels all
non-practicing Muslims - include Tahir Yuldashev,
leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan,
Sheikh Essa, Pakistani Baitullah Mehsud and some
factions of banned Pakistani militant
organizations.
The overriding objective of
the Tafkiris goes beyond simple terror attacks.
They aim to force Islamabad to either follow their
dictates or become ensnared in the conflict
against NATO. Better. Pakistan would stand neutral
in this regional war theater. (See Military brains plot Pakistan's
downfall Asia Times Online, September
26, 2007.)
Last Saturday, Pakistani
security forces unearthed a militant cell
operating from the military city of Rawalpindi and
recovered a huge cache of weapons. It is believed
militants were planning devastating attacks on
military installations. However, massive terrors
operations in the federal capital of Islamabad are
the biggest fear. Some believe these might be just
round the corner.
But the real danger is
the aim to drive a wedge between Islamabad and the
NATO-Washington nexus, which would leave Pakistan
potentially fatally exposed to the militants.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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