US plays matchmaker to Pakistan,
Israel By M K Bhadrakumar
Geopolitics around Pakistan are taking
dramatic turns. Details are emerging of a meeting
between Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
A
spin has been given that Musharraf and Barak had a
"chance encounter" in a hotel lobby in Paris. It
stretches credulity. Israeli media since revealed
that Musharraf placed his hand on Barak's shoulder
as the latter praised the Pakistani leader for his
role in the "war on terror". The following day,
Barak had an hour-long meeting with Musharraf at
the latter's invitation.
In all
probability, Israel's close ally on Capitol Hill
in Washington DC, the resourceful US Senator
Joseph Lieberman, who visited
Pakistan as a state guest in
early January, put together the Musharraf-Barak
meeting.
Lieberman's native ingenuity is
legion. Recently, the conservative Democratic
Connecticut senator explained to the Jerusalem
Post newspaper his unorthodox decision to endorse
the Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
By using a very orthodox metaphor, the one-time
Democratic vice presidential nominee apparently
explained: "The rabbis say in the Talmud that a
lot of rabbinic law is to put a fence around the
Torah so you don't get near to violating it."
Pakistan's threat
perceptions Both Pakistan and Israel have
reason to upgrade the level of their interaction.
A good clue is available from Lieberman's
itinerary in Islamabad, which included two unusual
appointments for a visiting US senator. Lieberman
had separate meetings with Pakistani army chief
General Parvez Kiani and the director general of
the Strategic Planning Division (SPD) , Lieutenant
General (retired) Khalid Ahmad Kidwai.
Following these meetings on January 9,
Lieberman paid handsome compliment to the SPD's
professional capability in managing the command
and control system for the security of Pakistan's
nuclear arsenal. "I am deeply impressed by the
professionalism of the team headed by the general
[Kidwai] to secure the nuclear assets of
Pakistan," he said. The SPD went out of the way to
give a detailed briefing to Lieberman.
The
Pakistani intention was clear - Lieberman would
transmit the impressions of his visit to Israel.
Islamabad has been visibly edgy about the
orchestrated media campaign in recent weeks that
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal might fall into the
hands of jihadi elements. Anyone could tell from a
mile that the campaign stank. Pakistan was being
threatened that it was about to be stripped of its
crown jewels. It was hardly justified and was
manifestly an attempt at blackmail.
First
of all, as a BBC analyst put it in a commentary on
this theater of the absurd, "Few believe Islamists
could take power in Pakistan." Second, Pakistan's
nuclear potential poses no more serious risks than
the nuclear potentials of India or Israel or
Russia or the US. Besides, Pakistan hasn't been
tardy at all in constantly improving the security
of its nuclear weapons. Finally, unless some
superior foreign power succeeds in systematically
degrading the Pakistani army, its capacity to be
the custodian of the country's national security
is never in doubt.
But Islamabad has felt
the need to factor in what has come to be known as
the "Osirak contingency". In their masterly work
Deception: Pakistan, the United States and the
Global Nuclear Weapons Conspiracy, authors
Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark have named
top-level Indian sources, who previously served in
key positions in the government, as admitting that
Delhi closely worked with Israel on more than one
occasion over plans to attack Pakistan's nuclear
installations.
Of course, an apocalyptic
conflagration of such a kind is simply unthinkable
in today's circumstances when all three - Israel,
Pakistan and India - are full nuclear powers, but
like any military establishment would do,
Rawalpindi, the site of the headquarters of the
Pakistan armed forces, is bound to plan against a
worst-case scenario. Furthermore, there is always
a new angle in a future context - Israel could
harbor misgivings that fissile materials out of
Pakistan's nuclear facilities might find their way
to Iran.
Evidently, Islamabad decided it
was useful to level with Israel so that
misconceptions did not arise. In diplomatic
parlance, Musharraf's meeting with Barak has been
a timely CBM (confidence-building measure).
India-Pakistan strategic parity
But that is only the tip of the iceberg.
It underscores the geopolitical turbulence that is
steadily enveloping the South Asian region. Much
of the turbulence is being commonly attributed to
the concerns of the international community over
radical Islam and terrorism in the region or over
the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons or of the
specter of the Pakistani state withering away into
anarchy under the sheer weight of its current
political difficulties. But the factors underlying
the volatility go deeper than that.
What
is becoming apparent is that a series of maneuvers
by regional powers is gradually building up in the
coming period. Arguably, the heightened tensions
around Pakistan are as much a symptom of these
geopolitical maneuvers as of an intrinsic nature.
Democracy deficit, political assassination, ruling
elites, misgovernance, corruption, popular
alienation, poverty and economic disparity,
religious fanaticism - these are common to almost
all countries of the South Asian region. Pakistan
is certainly not an exception.
At the
epicenter of the geopolitical turbulence in the
region lies the rapidly expanding strategic
partnership between the United States and India.
The developing US-India strategic axis is
triggering a large-scale realignment among
regional powers, especially involving Pakistan.
As a leading commentator of the official
Russian news agency put it recently, "Not without
help from the great powers, India has gone so far
ahead in the sphere of arms that it is pursuing
its national interests from the Persian Gulf to
the Malacca archipelago. Islamabad justifiably
believes that the United States is ready to
support India's claims to the status of a world
power in exchange for its efforts to deter China
and Iran ... [while] Pakistan still remains the
main partner of the United States and Western
Europe in the region's anti-terrorist coalition."
That a Moscow commentator should have made
such a sharp, pithy observation becomes
extraordinary by itself. He adds, "What should
Pakistan do in this situation? ... Pakistan is
using its potentialities to the utmost. In the
past, its nuclear potential was a major deterrent,
but today it is no longer playing this role. A
contribution to the change was made by the United
States - its nuclear romance with India is more
than obvious."
Last Friday, Pakistan
test-launched its medium-range Shaheen-1
rail-based solid fuel ballistic missile, which can
deliver nuclear warheads at a distance of up to
700 kilometers. Indian experts say it is a
modification of the Chinese M9 solid fuel tactical
missile. They allege China may have helped
Pakistan develop Shaheen-1 missiles.
This
has been Pakistan's second test of tactical
missiles in the past month and a half. On December
11, it test-launched its Babur cruise missile, a
land-based liquid fuel missile with a range of up
to 700km. Indeed, Pakistan is strictly observing
the schedule of tests it has agreed with India
within the framework of a bilateral agreement, and
there has been no deviation in the type or range
of missiles.
India is aware that
Pakistan's nuclear weapons are aimed against it,
but it doesn't make any ruckus about it, as that
might needlessly draw international attention to
the region as a "nuclear flashpoint", which it
isn't. On the contrary, both India and Pakistan
are equally busy developing their missile
potentials and have in place bilateral agreement
preventing the risk of accidents with nuclear
weapons.
Curiously, at times it even seems
there is an almost tacit bilateral commitment
between the two countries to the principle of
parallel testing. But, having said that, there is
no doubt that India is pulling incrementally ahead
of Pakistan in regard of the missile systems'
characteristics.
US-India military ties
India is embarking on a massive armament
program in cooperation with the US. The Times of
India newspaper reported on Tuesday, "After joint
combat exercises to develop 'interoperability',
the Indo-US military tango is now firmly waltzing
into the arms purchase arena as well." India has
just concluded a billion-dollar deal for the
purchase of six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft
from the US. Negotiations are reportedly in an
advanced stage with Boeing company for a US$2
billion deal for the purchase of eight P-8i
long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft with
anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
On
the horizon, as the Indian daily put it, "The US
is obviously desperate to grab a big piece of
action" out of India's projected $30 billion worth
arms purchases in the 2007-2012 period. Actually,
there is no need for Washington to be so
"desperate". Delhi is more than willing to play
its designated role as a pivotal country in the
US's global strategy.
It has scheduled "at
least five joint combat exercises" with the US for
2008. For the first time, India will also be
jointly exercising with the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
is scheduled to visit India on February 25-26. The
American ambassador in India publicly reaffirmed
on Monday that there is a "definite desire" in
Washington to conclude the nuclear cooperation
agreement with India on George W Bush's watch.
It is symptomatic of the strategic
equations shaping up in the region that Gates will
be skipping Pakistan during his tour of the
region. Yet, it was only last week that Gates
devoted an entire press conference, lasting over
an hour, to "the emergence of this fairly
considerable security challenge" in Pakistan,
while offering, "We [US ] remain ready, willing
and capable to assist the Pakistanis and to
partner with them, to provide additional training,
to conduct joint operations, should they desire to
do so."
From Islamabad's perspective, the
"de-hyphenated" policy on the part of the US
toward Pakistan and India has virtually come to
mean that Washington is focusing on the Pakistani
military role as an efficient, well-trained and
well-equipped border militia in the tribal tracts
with Afghanistan. On top of it, despite robust
refusal by Islamabad, Washington is pressing hard
for the deployment of US troops on Pakistani soil
and for beefing up the American intelligence
presence within Pakistan.
On any single
day, Pakistani media reflect a bitter sense of
betrayal. Ahmed Quraishi, a top TV commentator,
wrote recently in The News: "After 9/11,
Pakistan's crucial assistance helped the United
States secure a huge American footprint in Central
Asia. That was a dream come true for American
strategic planners. In return, Pakistan got
nothing but instability, derision and broken
promises. A feasible Pakistan-American cooperation
in the region has to work both ways, securing the
interests of both parties. Yet it never did after
9/11 despite every reason it should have."
In this situation, we may expect Pakistan
will begin to seek support in its relations with
India from other countries with modern weapons,
apart from China or the US. It may happen that
Pakistan may turn to Russia for this purpose. In
fact, a strong likelihood is that Pakistan-Russia
relations may be getting ready for an historic
makeover. The desperate US efforts to kiss and
make up with Uzbekistan suggest that Washington
apprehends a Russian thrust toward Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
Moscow will also be watching
with uneasiness that India in its zest to
consolidate an elevated status in the US's
regional policy has shown readiness to calibrate
its traditional policies with regard to Russia and
Central Asia.
As India gives formal shape
to its contacts with NATO and openly participates
in the US's missile defense program, the
trajectory of US-India strategic cooperation will
begin to impact on Russian interests, unless, of
course, Delhi takes corrective measures, for
which, however, political will becomes necessary.
Washington is, in any case, resolute in steering
its strategic cooperation with India precisely in
such a direction that it leads to an all-round
rollback of Russian influence in South Asia.
All this adds up to mean that the US-India
strategic partnership need not be the end of the
world for Pakistan. An altogether new strategic
equation may develop in the region between Russia,
China and Pakistan. With the regional security
environment in such a flux, Musharraf's message to
Barak would have been direct: Pakistan is in no
way threatening Israel's security directly or in
league with a third country, and Pakistan expects
Israel to reciprocate. Coming from one
soldier-turned-politician to another, that is not
too much to ask. Barak would have understood.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
over 29 years, with postings including India's
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
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