Russian turbulence for Indian
airbase By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - It does seem that India will
have to downsize its big-power dreams in Central
Asia. Its plan to deploy aircraft at the base at
Ayni in Tajikistan is facing opposition from an
unexpected quarter - Russia.
Ayni, located
10 kilometers from the Tajik capital Dushanbe, was
used by the Soviets during the 1980s to support
their military operations in Afghanistan.
Following their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the
Soviets left Ayni and the base fell into a
dilapidated condition.
In 2002, India
undertook renovation of the base under a bilateral
defense agreement with the Tajiks. It spent over
US$1.1 million
renovating the base:
extending and re-laying its runway, and
constructing three aircraft hangars, an
air-traffic control tower and the base's perimeter
fencing.
But India's interest in
renovating Ayni is not just about making the base
usable. It has been keen on setting up a military
outpost there.
Ayni's value to India stems
from Tajikistan's geographic location. The country
shares borders with China, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan
and Kyrgyzstan. A narrow strip of Afghan territory
- the Wakhan corridor - separates Tajikistan from
Pakistan. Besides, although Tajikistan is not a
producer of gas, it is close to countries that
are.
A base at Ayni would provide India
with a platform from which it could respond
rapidly in the event of threats to its interests
in the region. It may be recalled that when an
Indian Airlines flight from Kathmandu in Nepal to
Delhi was hijacked to Kandahar in Afghanistan in
December 1999, India was unable to respond
effectively.
An outpost at Ayni would
provide muscle to India's ambitions of extending
its strategic reach into Central Asia, a region
that is volatile and resource rich.
India's relationship with Tajikistan has
traditionally been warm. The two countries were on
the same side in the Afghan civil war in the late
1990s. Both were opposed to the Taliban and backed
the Northern Alliance. At Farkhor, southeast of
Dushanbe, India ran a 25-bed hospital for injured
fighters of the Northern Alliance in the late
1990s. And it was out of Tajikistan that India
channeled its assistance to the Northern Alliance,
which included, among other things, advice on
strategy and help in repairing the Northern
Alliance's Soviet-made aircraft.
After the
fall of the Taliban in late 2001, India was keen
to retain its foothold in Tajikistan. Hence, the
interest in renovating Ayni and setting up an
outpost there.
India initially planned to
deploy fixed-wing MiG-29 fighters at Ayni.
Subsequently it was said to be deploying only a
squadron of Mi-17 V1 helicopters. And then late
last year, reports indicated the Indians were
likely to be evicted from Ayni.
India
already has some 150 military personnel, mainly
engineers and support staff at Ayni. And while the
base is renovated, it is still not fully
operational.
Recently, India's Defense
Minister Arackaparambil Kurian Antony attributed
the delay to some "technical glitches". It is more
likely that Russian objections to India's presence
at Ayni were behind the delay.
The
Russians, it seems, are pressuring the Tajiks to
not only refuse India permission to deploy at Ayni
but also deny it access to the base.
The
Russian obstruction has come as a bit of a
surprise to India, especially since Moscow had
earlier given its nod. In fact, Russia, Tajikistan
and India had also informally agreed they would
share command and control over the base, holding
it by rotation. India and Russia had also agreed
to jointly maintain the base.
An Indian
military outpost at Ayni was expected to ruffle
feathers in Islamabad and Beijing, not Moscow,
given the decades of warm ties between India and
Russia. The Russian turnaround indicates how much
India's equation with the big powers has changed
in recent years.
The Russian rethink on
India's role at Ayni appears to have been prompted
by unease over India's new closeness to the
Americans.
The Russian pressure on the
Tajiks was aimed at signaling to Delhi that if
India wanted to reap the benefits of its long-term
closeness to Moscow, then it would have to
maintain a distance with the Americans. India
could not expect to have a strategic beachhead in
Central Asia if it pursued close ties with the
Americans.
The Russian move was also aimed
at putting pressure on India to decide in its
favor in a host of big-ticket defense deals that
are in the pipeline. India is expected to spend
about $40 billion in the next few years to replace
aging equipment and upgrade its military hardware
and the Russians are anxious that India, which has
in the past depended on Russia to meet its
military needs, will now turn to the US, France
and others.
The Russian move was aimed at
reminding India that it still needs the Russians
to realize its ambitions. A base in Central Asia
for instance, the Russians are underscoring, would
not be possible without their nod.
Over
the past few months, India is reported to have
raised the Ayni issue with the Russians alongside
several other irritants that have cropped up in
their relations. India is annoyed with Russia over
the delay in delivery of the aircraft carrier
Admiral Gorshkov and the steep hike in costs of
the Sukhoi fighter aircraft.
Indian
government officials insist that the outpost at
Ayni is still very much in the cards. At a recent
meeting with his Tajik counterpart Colonel-General
Khairullaev Sherali, India's Defense Minister
Antony is reported to have sorted out some issues
regarding India's role at Ayni. Ayni is still part
of India's gameplan in Central Asia - at least for
now.
However, India's presence at Ayni
will be a much scaled down version of what it
originally envisaged for itself.
Phunchok
Stobdan, Central Asia expert and senior fellow at
the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in
New Delhi, says that deployment of a squadron of
helicopters "now seems rather far-fetched". A
full-time stationing of troops at Ayni is doubtful
but "it is likely that Ayni would be available for
India's use in a contingency", he told Asia Times
Online.
The Russians would like any Indian
role at Ayni to be part of a multilateral approach
to crisis under the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, for instance, says Stobdan.
That would give it an anti-US color, which
is not the way India interprets its role in
Central Asia.
Sudha Ramachandran
is an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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