Taliban take a hit, but the fight
goes on By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - With the killing of Abu Laith
al-Libi this week, the Taliban have suffered their
biggest loss since being ousted from power in
2001, and they are left without their finest
military brain just two months before their spring
offensive.
All the same, while there will
undoubtedly be a short-term negative effect over
the loss of the talisman commander, the Taliban
have a groundswell of support in place that is
unlikely to be affected in the longer term.
According to reports, Libi, 41, a Libyan,
was killed on Monday in an attack by a US Predator
drone in Mir Ali, a town in Pakistan's
North Waziristan tribal area
near the border with Afghanistan.
The
US military placed Libi on its most wanted list in
2006, behind al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his
deputy Ayman al-
Zawahiri and Taliban leader Mullah
Omar. Libi had a reward of US$200,000 on his head
following his involvement in the February 2007
bombing at Bagram airbase in Afghanistan during a
visit by US Vice President Dick Cheney.
The Western press uniformly describe Libi
as al-Qaeda's number three, but it was not his
links to the group that made his name. He was the
de facto commander in chief of the Afghan
resistance against the occupation forces in
Afghanistan and he was the main engine behind all
of the Taliban's successful attacks, especially in
the east of the country.
The strongly
built Libi was a committed warrior for the cause
of jihad in Afghanistan. Even Pakistani military
officers acknowledged his guerrilla fighting
skills and his ability to rally his men; they
called him a "true mujahid".
On several
occasions, Pakistan security forces had him
cornered, but each time he managed to escape. He
would then send messages to army officers, saying
he could have caused havoc in their ranks but he
would never fight against a Muslim and preferred
to escape.
Taliban commander Mullah
Dadullah, now killed, claimed the attack on Bagram
last year, but Asia Times Online investigations at
the time found it was Libi who had planned the
attack. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) later confirmed this. Likewise, all major
operations claimed by Afghan commanders,
especially those led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, were
in fact to the credit of Libi.
The common
perception is that all Arabs fighting in
Afghanistan belong to al-Qaeda. This is not the
reality. Arabs are present in Afghanistan in
several groups, and not necessarily part of
al-Qaeda, as with Libi. He did cooperate with
al-Qaeda but always took independent decisions. He
was not known to be part of any international
terror operations as he was fully committed to the
fight against NATO in Afghanistan and to training
fighters in modern techniques of guerrilla
warfare.
Libi was the best instructor the
Taliban ever had. He had established Shankiari
training camp in Khost province which was
destroyed by NATO in 2006. He trained Afghans in
the use of anti-aircraft missiles, among many
other skills.
He was not a scholar like
Shiekh Essa, who incites people in the tribal
areas to rebel against the Pakistani government.
He was not a prophet of doom for the West, like
Zawahiri, who often calls for the destruction of
London and Washington.
Libi was a simple
warrior who fought a defensive war (resistance)
against NATO in Afghanistan and was fiercely
against carrying out attacks on Pakistan.
He was a battlefield ideologue who lived
with his men and fought in a foreign country, and
the results of his efforts reverberated around the
world.
The initial reaction is that Libi's
death could result in a strengthening of the
Takfiri ideologues in the Waziristan tribal areas.
They believe in war against any non-practicing
Muslims, which includes attacks on Pakistan. Libi
had acted as a restraining influence on them. But
for the Taliban, the focus remains fixed on
Afghanistan.
The show goes
on NATO's commander in eastern Afghanistan,
Major General David Rodriguez, recently said he
did not expect the Taliban to mount a spring
offensive this year as they wanted to focus their
efforts on destabilizing the Pakistani government.
This is not the case. Mullah Omar made it
clear by "sacking" Pakistani Taliban leader
Baitullah Mehsud - who wanted to concentrate on
Pakistan - that all efforts would be aimed at
Afghanistan.
If anything, Libi's death
could help ignite the spring offensive. Asia Times
Online has learned that a Taliban delegation from
the Afghan province of Helmand has arrived in
South Waziristan. The purpose is to build bridges
between various feuding factions and unite them
for the spring offensive.
Pressure will
even be brought to bear on Mehsud to shift to
Afghanistan for a few months to end hostilities
between the Pakistani security forces and his
Mehsud tribe, which is under siege in South
Waziristan.
Apart from Mehsud and a few
other groups, all jihadi groups in the tribal
areas have now struck peace deals with Pakistani
security and are regrouping for the spring
offensive.
By the end of last year,
leading jihadi groups such as the Harkatul
Mujahideen al-Aalmi, the Harkatul Ansaar, the
Harkat-i-Jehad-i-Islami, the Ansarus Sunnah and
the Ansarul Muslimoon had concentrated their human
and material resources in the Waziristans in
preparation for a renewed offensive in
Afghanistan.
Each of these organization
has independent weapons stockpiles, millions of
dollars in funds and hundreds of fighters, in
addition to secure supply lines for further funds.
The legend of the Faqir of Api (who
defeated the British Indian Army in Waziristan and
then the Pakistani army in the 1950s) is alive in
one of his descendents, Hafiz Gul Bahadur of North
Waziristan.
Gul was the deputy chief of
the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the chief was
Mehsud. But since the removal of Mehsud by Mullah
Omar, Gul has struck a ceasefire agreement with
the Pakistani security forces.
The former
chief of the Taliban in South Waziristan, Haji
Omar, a Wazir, has also separated from Baitullah
and now lives in North Waziristan. He has also
struck a deal with the security forces and his now
focussed on raising money and men for Afghanistan.
The Uzbeks, the largest group of
foreigners in the tribal areas and concentrated in
Mir Ali, have joined hands with the Afghan Taliban
after separating from Tahir Yuldashev, the leader
of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. This leaves
Mehsud and his followers isolated with members of
the banned militant outfit Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and
the Takfiri group within al-Qaeda led by Shiekh
Essa.
Meanwhile, Pakistani police in the
southern port city of Karachi have clarified that
Qasim Toori, who was reported to have been killed
in five-hour shootout between militants and
security forces on Tuesday, is in fact not dead.
Police say he is only injured and is in
their custody. He was said to be dead in an effort
to catch his whole network, which is believed to
be the main financial artery for Mehsud's network.
Thus, Mehsud, with his financial sources
curtailed and becoming increasingly isolated,
could be the big loser from Libi's death.
The Taliban have taken a hard hit, there
is no doubt about that, as Libi was a field
commander of exceptional talent. But the momentum
for the Taliban's spring offensive was already in
place before his death, and now it is gaining
pace.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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Zawahiri and Taliban leader Mullah
Omar. Libi had a reward of US$200,000 on his head
following his involvement in the February 2007
bombing at Bagram airbase in Afghanistan during a
visit by US Vice President Dick Cheney.
