PESHAWAR, North-West
Frontier Province - Despite last week's ceasefire
agreement between the Pakistani security forces
and the Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas, it
is clear that a major regional battle between
al-Qaeda and the Western coalition is still
pending, starting in Pakistan.
US Defense
Secretary Robert Gates, during a visit to Germany
on Sunday, did not mince his words in saying that
al-Qaeda and Taliban forces in Pakistan's
northwest frontier region pose a direct
threat
to the Islamabad government.
The remaining
issue is who strikes first, and against whom.
"Undoubtedly, we are under observation,
especially those who live in the cities," says a
Pakistani and a member of al-Qaeda's shura
(council) who spoke to this correspondent in
Peshawar.
"We can sense a big operation is
being planned against us in Pakistan's cities, but
perhaps the security agencies will not get the
chance to strike first," says the man, speaking
under the nom de plume of Abu Haris.
"Pakistan's fears are not without basis.
After Lal Masjid [Red Mosque operation in
Islamabad last year in which the radical mosque
was stormed], Sheikh [Osama bin Laden] personally
appointed an amir [chief] for Pakistan for
khuruj [revolt]. The decision got the
approval of the shura and then an
organization was set up in various Pakistani
cities," the al-Qaeda member says.
"They
were given resources and recently a new amir was
appointed [the change was due to some unavoidable
circumstances]. However, the greatest shock [for
us] was in Karachi, where members of Jundullah
[Army of God - a militant organization that
targets the Pakistan state] were arrested. But we
will recover and the arrests did not expose the
identities of others as we have worked a lot to
plug loopholes in our organization," Abu Haris
says. (See Shootout echoes across
Pakistan Asia Times Online, January 31,
2007.)
He says different people have
different tasks and although the cells do meet
together in the Waziristan tribal areas, they are
not aware of each other's locations or precise
tasks and operations.
Abu Haris believes
this approach has saved the organization from
being penetrated by intelligence agencies, which
is why the rate of arrests of al-Qaeda members has
dwindled in recent months.
Abu Haris is
assigned by al-Qaeda to Pakistan, which means the
cities, not the tribal areas. He says al-Qaeda has
not only revived the structure that was destroyed
after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, but
has greatly expanded its work.
Largely
known as an Arab organization, al-Qaeda has now
absorbed thousands of former members of Pakistani
jihadi organizations, given them representation in
the shura and delegated them operations in
Pakistan.
Abu Haris is an example of this.
He was a member of the banned Lashkar-i-Toiba,
which concentrated its operations on Kashmir, but
he is now a member of al-Qaeda's shura and
in charge of a cell operating in the Peshawar
Valley.
"The nature of operations and
policies is different in Afghanistan, entirely
different from those in the tribal areas, and now
we have a completely different approach in
Pakistani cities," Abu Haris said. The
post-ceasefire suicide bombing in the town of
Charsadda in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)
at the weekend illustrates this. At least 25
people were killed and more than 40 injured in an
attack on a rally of the Awami National Party - a
secular, ethnic Pashtun group - ahead of national
elections scheduled for February 18.
The plan of khuruj The
addition of former jihadis, who were trained by
Pakistani intelligence to fight in Indian-held
Kashmir, and some retired Pakistani army officers
to al-Qaeda's ranks has brought about a major
change in the group's operational approach.
Al-Qaeda began to concentrate more on
strategic matters and an intelligence and review
committee was formed. This is run by Pakistanis
based in Pakistani cities. One of their tasks is
to cull media sources for items on issues ranging
from United States and European Union policy to
matters concerning al-Qaeda. They then prepare
summary papers and analysis which is passed on to
members of the shura and high command.
For instance, recently the committee
analyzed the issue of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal,
which has been much in the spotlight amid Western
fears of it falling into militant hands. There has
even been talk of the US trying to take control of
it. However, the al-Qaeda assessment was that
staff at the nuclear facilities was "patriotic,
clean and better Muslims than the military
leadership" and that any intervention by the
Americans would be strongly resisted.
Al-Qaeda's shura makes all
decisions, including the religious and strategic
assessment of any project, for instance the
decision to stage a khuruj was approved by
Bin Laden last year.
The shura
discussed the religious justification of
khuruj and after long debate agreed it was
essential for Pakistan. The religious requirements
to launch khuruj include the appointment of
an "amir of khuruj".
According to
sharia law, khuruj against rulers can only
be launched when the chances of success are good.
"It [khuruj] will be different from
isolated attacks, rather it will be collective
actions of revolt throughout Pakistani cities.
This is what khuruj is by strategy and
according to the demands of sharia," Abu Haris
said.
All the same, al-Qaeda is aware it
doesn't have the following such as the Iranian
revolution had in 1979 when the Shah was swept out
of power. Al-Qaeda's strength in urban centers is
estimated at not much more than a few thousand.
All the same, Abu Haris is confident.
"Just a few steps would be enough to break the
binding forces of the country, and then it will
fall into our hands," he says. "For instance,
there are two major [oil] refineries in the
country. If we were to blow them, the country
would face a severe energy crisis. Everything
would come to a halt and riots would erupt. There
are already so many divisions in the country that
the riots would bring it to the verge of collapse.
"The Pakistani army would be incapable of
containing this. The 1965 war [with India] is
evidence. Pakistan opened up a front in Indian
Kashmir and in retaliation the Indians went for
large-scale war ... the fact is that the Pakistani
army was demoralized and desertions were rampant.
"We assess that any large-scale operation
would break the army and Pakistan, and this would
be a blessing for us. Of course, the Indians would
take advantage of the situation and that's why we
have a plan to immediately spread this war to the
whole region, including India and Afghanistan,"
Abu Haris explains, basing his arguments on
information from al-Qaeda's intelligence and
review committee.
Pakistan in
peril? Pakistan and al-Qaeda have had an
informal agreement that al-Qaeda will not be
targeted if it respects the sanctity of Pakistan.
Certainly, the Pakistani security forces - mostly
under US duress - have launched many operations in
the tribal areas, but the militants have generally
responded by only fighting against the security
forces.
However, the recent arrests in
Karachi stunned General Headquarters in Rawalpindi
as they came to appreciate the full extent of
al-Qaeda's plans for sabotage in the cities.
Pakistani intelligence agencies were aware
to some extent of the problem of militancy, but
preferred not to tackle it head-on lest it explode
in their faces.
Another incident also
jolted the Pakistani army. Intelligence had been
reporting for the past year of the presence of
militants in Dara Adam Khail, in NWFP, but the
army ignored the warnings. However, when militants
seized the strategic Peshawar-Kohat tunnel, which
cut off NWFP from the rest of the country, and
with it military supplies, the army was shocked.
Retired Brigadier Mehmood Shah, a former
secretary of FATA (the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas) , commented to a national TV
network, "I don't think that ordinary Taliban are
behind such a sophisticated military strategy,
which cuts off military supply lines. Only
national armies can plan such operations. I think
there is some external hand behind that
operation."
However, this assessment
ignores developments. The forms of militancy have
changed. It is nothing like the tribal rebellion
against British India when guerrilla war meant
firing on military convoys from behind rocks. The
touch of the military brains (see Military brains plot Pakistan's
downfall Asia Times Online, September
26, 2007) has brought sophistication to the
militancy.
In addition to mainstream
al-Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan
Taliban, many unnamed militant groups operate with
different agendas, and they are little-know to
Pakistani intelligence.
Many analysts
believe Pakistan has undergone a major shift in
its policies in the tribal areas and that last
week's ceasefire is a manifestation of this.
"It is an illusion to think Pakistan has
changed its policies. American pressure is so
immense that Pakistan just would not dare to
change its policies. They will definitely come
after us, but this time we will not give them the
chance of first strike," Abu Haris says.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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