South Asia's democratic
gambit By Chietigj Bajpaee
This year promises to be pivotal in South
Asia's transition to democracy. While India is
frequently touted as the "world's largest
democracy", its international neighborhood is one
of "democracy deficit".
However, a wave of
democratic transitions will sweep South Asia this
year as three countries - Bangladesh, Nepal,
Pakistan - will be reverting back to democratic
rule while two nations - Bhutan and the Maldives -
undergo the democratic process for the first time
in their histories. These transitions are fraught
with risks and could potentially be delayed.
Furthermore, as demonstrated by recent
developments in India and Sri Lanka, elections are
not a guarantee for accountability and democracy
is not always a
precursor for stability.
Democracy in abeyance
All
eyes will be on Pakistan's parliamentary elections
on February 18, which will be the first since
President Pervez Musharraf stepped down as chief
of army staff before being sworn in for a second
term as president last December.
It will
also occur in the presence of a reinvigorated
secular opposition following the return of Benazir
Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif last year. Despite
Bhutto's death and Sharif's ban from standing in
the elections due to pending criminal charges,
both of their parties - the Pakistan People's
Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) - are likely to perform well, fueled by
widespread support and sympathy votes from
Bhutto's assassination.
Nonetheless,
Bhutto's death has left a void in Pakistani
politics. Despite her legacy of corruption and two
terms of turbulent rule, Bhutto represented a
pro-Western, secular alternative to rule by the
military or mullahs. She also demonstrated the
potential to form a workable government following
discussions last year over a power-sharing
arrangement between herself and Musharraf, which
was apparently mediated by current army chief
General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.
Bhutto's
assassination has weakened the likelihood of a
power-sharing arrangement as Sharif maintains an
adversarial relationship with Musharraf while the
PPP distrusts the government's explanation for
Bhutto's death. The PPP also lacks credible
leadership under its new president: Bhutto's
19-year-old son Bilawal and co-chair Asif Zardari,
Bhutto's husband, who remains unpopular due to
long-standing corruption allegations. The
elections will most likely result in an unstable
government plagued by political gridlocks.
Furthermore, the fundamental problems
plaguing Pakistan's stability will not be resolved
by the election. Pakistan's judiciary remains a
puppet to the executive after the Supreme Court
was purged following the declaration of emergency
rule in November. Pakistan's press freedoms remain
curtailed. Concerns remain over the
"Talibanization" of the country as sectarian
clashes, campaign-related violence and terrorism
remain prevalent. Pakistan's periphery remains
unstable as relations with its neighbors India and
Afghanistan are poor - a situation which has
fueled the continued dominance of the military in
the political sphere. Finally, Pakistan's
neglected education system has propelled the rise
of Islamic extremism.
Bangladesh tries
again Meanwhile, Bangladesh is scheduled to
hold parliamentary elections by the end of this
year following the suspension of democracy in
January 2007. The military-backed caretaker
administration was initially welcomed following
the period of political instability that preceded
it.
However, the patience of the general
population is wearing thin as the mandate of the
interim government has been eroded by mass
detentions and the suspension of democracy. More
than 400,000 people have been detained since the
interim government was installed in January 2007.
There have been accusations of double standards in
the treatment of detainees, with corrupt business
and military officials allegedly being treated
with greater clemency than politicians or
protesting academics and students. Furthermore,
tensions could be stoked by spiraling inflation
fueled by rising commodity prices in the wake of a
series of natural disasters in 2007, notably
Cyclone Sidr in November 2007, as well as a
downturn in Bangladesh's textile sector.
Furthermore, with 150 politicians from
Bangladesh's two main political parties - the
Awami League and Bangladesh National Party - under
arrest including their leaders, Sheikh Hasina
Wajed and Khaleda Zia respectively, it is unclear
which candidates and what parties will stand in
the elections. The interim government has so far
failed to develop a "third front" in Bangladeshi
politics as efforts to develop a new party under
the leadership of Nobel Prize-winning economist
Mohammad Yunus failed to take off. Protests
against the government are likely to escalate in
the coming months, especially if a clear timetable
for Bangladesh's return to democracy is not
introduced.
Finally, Nepal will also be
reverting to democracy following 15 months of the
autocratic rule of King Gyanendra, which came to
an end in April 2006. Constituent assembly
elections are scheduled for April 10, after which
Parliament will draft a new constitution.
Determining the role of the monarchy under the new
political structure, addressing the grievances of
Madhesi groups in the southern Terai region,
sharing power between the seven-party alliance and
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), as well as
disarming the Maoists remain key issues in
ensuring Nepal's stable transition back to
democracy.
Democracy takes
root While not as prominent, democratic
transitions in Bhutan and the Maldives are of
equal or greater importance, given that these
countries will be undergoing the democratic
process for the first time in their histories.
After a series of mock elections, Bhutan held its
first Upper House (National Council) elections in
December. These are to be followed by the more
important Lower House (National Assembly)
elections on March 24.
Several risks
plague Bhutan's transition from absolute monarchy
to multi-party democracy, which began under former
King Jigme Singye Wangchuck and continue under his
son, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck. Voter
turnout has been low as widespread respect for the
monarchy has undermined enthusiasm for democratic
rule among some voters, as has the inexperience of
voters new to the democratic process.
Despite the monarchy assuming a ceremonial
role, the king is likely to retain significant
influence over the political process. Bhutan's
Nepalis, which comprise one-sixth of Bhutan's
population, have also been disenfranchised by
their refugee status. Finally, security concerns
threaten Bhutan's stable transition to democratic
rule, as illustrated by the string of bomb
explosions across Bhutan in January.
Concerns emanate from insurgent groups in
northeast India and radicalized elements of
Bhutan's Nepali refugee population, which are
represented by groups such as the Bhutan Tiger
Force, the Bhutan Maoists Party, the Communist
Party of Bhutan and the United Revolutionary Front
of Bhutan. Bhutan's transition to democracy is
likely to be incomplete and unsustainable until
the issue of the country's refugee population is
adequately addressed. Finally, an increasingly
open and democratic Bhutan is more likely to be
swayed by the ongoing strategic competition
between the region's two behemoths, China and
India. The alleged incursion of the Chinese
military into Bhutanese territory in the Dolam
Valley near India's vulnerable Silguri Corridor
resulted in the reported enhancement of the Indian
military presence along the tri-border border
region.
The tit-for-tat actions by the
Chinese and Indian militaries along their mutual
border is likely to incur a more active response
from Bhutan once it is under democratic rule.
Bhutan's traditionally subservient role to India
is also likely to come into question as it opens
up to foreign influences and the government
becomes more accountable and transparent.
Meanwhile, the Maldives is scheduled to
hold its first multi-party Lower House elections
this year. There is ongoing friction between the
government and opposition groups over the creation
of an interim government and draft constitution.
Political protests and campaign-related violence
are likely to escalate in the run-up to elections.
This comes amid a series of security threats to
the island nation; notably the bomb attack in the
capital Male in September last year.
Alleged links between the perpetrators of
the attack and foreign terrorist organizations
such as al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Toiba coupled with
the growth of Salafi Islam in the traditionally
moderate Sunni Islamic country signifies the
growth of Islamic extremism on the island. Coupled
with the assassination attempt on President
Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in January, growing drug
addiction and instances of police and government
corruption, the terrorist attack is indicative of
the deteriorating law and order situation in the
Indian Ocean archipelago.
Democracy
evolves South Asia's established
democracies are also undergoing a period of
transition and instability. In India, which touts
itself as the "world's largest democracy",
anti-incumbency has become the norm in electoral
politics as successive governments promise much
yet fail to deliver.
This has been
witnessed most recently in a string of state
elections where the ruling Congress Party has been
ousted by either sub-national parties or the Hindu
Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP
itself was ousted in national-level parliamentary
elections in 2004 when its "India Shining" motto
failed to resonate with the masses, leading to the
surprise win of the Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA).
The
performance of the ruling Congress party in a
string of state elections this year, notably in
Karnataka, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, will
determine whether national-level parliamentary
elections are held earlier than the scheduled date
of May 2009.
The inability of Congress to
address growing inequality and socio-economic
dislocations created by India's growing economy,
which was a core issue of its campaign platform,
has led to its growing unpopularity. This has been
demonstrated by the limited effectiveness of the
government's National Rural Employment Guarantee
Scheme and opposition to the conversion of
agricultural land for industrial development, as
seen most visibly in the violence in Nandigram,
West Bengal, last year. Corruption scandals and
communal tensions could also shift the balance of
electoral support, fueling a call for early
nationwide parliamentary elections.
Furthermore, despite a string of victories
by the BJP in a number of state elections last
year, most notably in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh
and Uttarakhand, it is not clear that the Indian
electorate is ready to revert to the ideology of
Hindutva or Hindu Nationalism espoused by the
party. This may open up a third front in Indian
politics comprised of India's left front and
sub-national parties. These parties may adopt
significantly different policies from Congress and
the BJP on national issues ranging from the
privatization of state-owned enterprises to
India's ongoing rapprochement with the United
States and the US-India nuclear agreement.
Meanwhile, the precarious coalition
government in Sri Lanka has exasperated the
long-running Tamil insurgency. Some have
speculated that political motivations have fueled
the government's decision to withdraw from the
2002 Norwegian-brokered ceasefire agreement in
January, as President Mahinda Rajapakse attempts
to win back the support of the hardline People's
Liberation Front (JVP) to bolster his coalition's
slim majority in parliament. The JVP left the
ruling Sri Lankan Freedom Party-led United
People's Freedom Alliance in 2005. However, it
remains an important player in Sri Lankan
politics, as illustrated by its support to the
government in passing the budget in December.
Furthermore, Sri Lanka's failure to meet
the needs of its ethnic minorities, notably its
Muslim and Tamil population, as displayed by the
long-running insurgency for a separate Tamil
homeland, have illustrated its failure as a
democracy.
The government is pursuing an
increasingly hard-line position as demonstrated by
Rajpakse's pledge to defeat the Liberation Tigers
of the Tamil Eelam (LTTE) within the first six
months of this year, the government's withdrawal
from the ceasefire agreement, the military's
attacks on civilian targets in LTTE-held areas in
the north, as well as engaging in forced
detentions and relocations of ethnic Tamils and
curbing press freedoms. These policies are likely
to further alienate and radicalize Sri Lanka's
Tamil population and deter the possibility of
forging a political solution to the Tamil
question.
Strengthening
institutions The instabilities plaguing
politics in South Asia are illustrative of the
fact that elections are not a guarantee of
political stability or accountable government.
Instead, democratic development should focus on
strengthening institutions rather than
personalities, and garnering votes through policy
platforms rather than feudal patronage.
Politics in South Asia remains centered on
the cult of personalities and family dynasties.
The continued prominence in the political sphere
of the Bhutto family in Pakistan, Nehru-Gandhi
family in India, the Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga
family in Sri Lanka, the Mujibur Rehman-Sheikh
Hasina and Ziaur Rahman-Khaleda Zia families in
Bangladesh, as well as the recent elevation of
Sujata Koirala, daughter of Prime Minister Girija
Prasad Koirala to a cabinet rank in Nepal
demonstrates the dominance of hereditary politics
in South Asia.
In the end, irrespective of
when elections are held or who rules, the
long-term sustainability of South Asia's
democracies rests on their ability to emerge as a
secular, progressive states ruled by strong
institutions rather than strong individuals that
are internally at peace with their ethnic and
religious minorities and externally at peace with
their neighbors. This is pivotal not only for the
evolution of a stable democracy, but also for
regional stability.
Chietigj
Bajpaee is a research analyst for Asia in the
Country Intelligence Group at Global Insight.
Prior to this, he was a Research Associate at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS) in Washington, DC, a research assistant at
the London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS) and a risk analyst for a
New York-based risk management company. The views
expressed here are his own. He can be contacted at
cbajpaee@hotmail.com.
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