Pakistan sifts through election
aftermath By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
As the fallout from Pakistan's
general elections comes into focus, one enormous
question mark has emerged: who will be included in
the new government? Some major domestic political
players have made hasty, if strategic, retreats
from the government-making process and have
adopted policies of wait and see.
Meanwhile, Washington has moved to mend
bridges between embattled President Pervez
Musharraf and the opposition camps in order to
preserve its interests in the regional "war on
terror". Analysts believe that if Islamabad is
gripped by further political turmoil, and if
Musharraf exits the corridors of power, the US-led
operation could flounder.
"We shall prefer
to sit in the opposition and would rather provide
support for the issues of
national interest instead of making any bid to be
a part of any set-up," Senator Mushahid Hussain
Syed, secretary general of the former ruling
Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam (PML-Q), told
Asia Times Online. "I think there are a lot of
issues where any future set-up needs our support,
especially in the 'war on terror', and we would
provide our support while sitting in the
opposition benches."
The ruling PML-Q, the
main ally of Musharraf, emerged from elections in
third place - with 41 national assembly seats out
of a possible 272. Independent sources maintain
that PML-Q's strategy to distance itself from the
new government is the result of backroom
maneuvering by US officials which lasted all of
Tuesday. Washington was reportedly surprised by
the election results and pondering how to preserve
the US-led terror campaign amid new political
developments.
Indeed, the results have
made for some strange bedfellows in the new
parliament. For example, former premier Nawaz
Sharif and Musharraf - a longtime Western ally -
could be together in opposition, but working
against each other, and their disagreements, along
with the inclusion of an as-yet-undecided incoming
president, could leave the "war on terror"
hamstrung. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz
(PML-N) secured the second largest number of
national assembly seats with 67. The Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) was the winner with 87
assembly seats.
Before the vote,
well-placed Pakistani security sources told Asia
Times Online that the Pakistani and US militaries
were planning to launch an operation, and that
American military officials had been discussing it
at Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi.
"The purpose of the operation is to carry
out a comprehensive operation with precise attacks
on the militant hideouts in the tribal areas. The
American presence in Pakistan has only two limited
goals. They are equipped with hi-tech intelligence
equipment, and second they would provide training
to our troops to make better use of this
equipment. However, they would not take any active
part in the operations," a senior security
official told Asia Times Online. Nevertheless, he
admitted that for purposes of surveillance and
coordination American officials may accompany
Pakistani troops during the operation but in no
way would take part in any direct strikes in
Pakistan.
Now, Pakistan's fragile
political situation suggests that the operation
may be put on hold, giving valuable time for the
Taliban and al-Qaeda to regroup for a spring
offensive. Such a campaign may occur as early as
April. After all, militant-led violence in
Pakistan postponed the elections. The government
was forced to accept the militants' conditions in
haste and only concluded a peace deal with
militants in North Waziristan last week.
"Military withdrawal was begun only a day
before the elections, which is the only benefit of
this election. Otherwise Musharraf, [PPP
co-chairman Asif] Zardari and Nawaz Sharif would
not make any difference in the US-led 'war on
terror'," Khalid Khawaja, once a close aide of
Osama bin Laden, told Asia Times Online when asked
for his expectations of the election process.
Washington could revive the weakening
pulse of its "war on terror" operations with rapid
overtures towards Zardari. US officials on Tuesday
upped the political ante by informing Sharif that
Washington doesn't support his demand for
restoring the judiciary as an essential condition
for forming a coalition government.
Sources said Zardari, the widower of slain
former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, visited the
US embassy on Tuesday afternoon and met with US
officials. Sources maintained that the US is
working on a scenario in which the PPP would form
a government with a coalition of smaller parties
such as the six-party religious alliance,
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), the Muttehida Qaumi
Movement (MQM), a Pashtun sub-nationalist party,
and the Awami National Party (ANP), as well as
independents and moderate leaders from tribal
areas. The US is pushing the former ruling PML-Q
to support the government from opposition and
continue the US's "war on terror" policies.
"We are ready to cooperate with the next
set-up because any government will have tough
challenges ahead. The year 2007 was the year when
our government was forced to take tough decisions
- the Lal Masjid operation and operations in
Waziristan - and as a consequence we lost the
elections," said former Pakistani information
minister Senator Mushahid Hussain in an interview
with Asia Times Online.
According to
sources, the political wrangling took place at a
important gathering of politicos - including
elements of the the establishment and close
confidants of Musharraf - which lasted until 11 pm
on Tuesday. A journalist was allegedly sent to
Zardari to convey Musharraf's assurances that the
process of government formation could begin
without the participation of Sharif. Sources said
that Musharraf's missive presented himself as head
of the state and chief of the national security
council in order to ensure the role of the armed
forces in the key policy decisions of the country.
The PML-N is quite aware of the challenges
it faces, especially concerning the "war on
terror". Although Sharif maintained in a press
conference on Tuesday that the PML-N would take
steps in terror operations according to national
needs, he also said that joining any newly formed
government may damage the credibility of the
party. With this in mind, the inner circles of the
PML-N are aiming to abstain from the early
formation of government and maintain a wait and
see policy from an opposition perspective.
So far, no political party has come
forward to join the PML-N's demand for the
restoration of the judiciary - even ANP, the
majority winner in the North West Frontier
Province, categorically denied that this was their
issue. More important to the ANP is provincial
autonomy.
Washington officially applauded
the election process in Pakistan, which it termed
transparent, among other praises. At the same
time, however, the US has grave concerns that the
vulnerability of a new government, or its
unwillingness to cooperate with the US, could
spell doom for the "war on terror".
"I
suggest that political parties should demand that
until Musharraf's resignation they would not take
the oath in the parliament. Because, if they take
the oath, it means they legitimize Musharraf's
presidency," said retired Lieutenant General Hamid
Gul, who has recently played a major role in
organizing Pakistani veterans' groups to demand
retired general Musharraf's resignation.
Gul was optimistic that the present vote
against Musharraf and his allies was a vote
against American domination of the region. He
expressed hope that eventually mass support would
push Islamabad to abandon all military operations
in tribal areas.
"Americans cannot do anything
if we stop the operations in tribal areas. If they
stop military aid, they are welcome to do so. We
don't need military aid. All we need is economic
aid and they just cannot afford to stop it. Why?
Because all NATO supply lines pass through
Pakistan and if they stop economic aid, Pakistan
can stop supply lines which would end their
regional war on terror theater once and for all.
This is the biggest crime of Musharraf - that he
could not understand the strategic value of
Pakistan in the region and could not exploit it,"
said Gul.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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