Page 1 of 2 China, India, play it again for Uncle Sam
By M K Bhadrakumar
American diplomacy was on splendid display this week in two key Asian capitals
- Beijing and New Delhi. China and India rolled out the red carpet to visiting
cabinet officials from Washington. By a curious coincidence, the two top US
officials - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert
Gates - chose the same block of dates to befriend the two Asian "rivals".
Amid the debris of the George W Bush administration's foreign policy in the
Middle East, what is often overlooked is the extraordinary diplomatic gusto
with which Washington goes about convincing the two Asian giants, China and
India, that each is a privileged partner of the US's global strategies.
Indeed, it is difficult to be judgmental about the relative importance
that the US attaches to its relations with China and India - or, conversely,
what goes on in the inscrutable minds of such ancient peoples as the Chinese or
Indians. But Chinese pronouncements insist that the US is inviting China to be
a "stakeholder" in the affairs of the 21st century and Beijing is responding.
On the contrary, the Indian strategic community remains confident that the US
is painstakingly building up Indian capabilities as a first-class power so as
to make it a counterweight to China.
Full credit must be given to American diplomacy. Welcoming Gates to Delhi, the
Indian Defense Ministry noted in an effusive press release that the George W
Bush presidency "witnessed unprecedented acceleration in India-US engagement
and qualitative transformation in the relationship, particularly in defense".
It added that Gates' visit "reaffirms the importance of Indo-US relations and
the strong political support in the US for our strategic partnership".
China was characteristically restrained in welcoming Rice to Beijing. Foreign
Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said, "China and the United States will
exchange views during Rice's visit on bilateral relations and the significant
regional and international issues of common concern." All the same, former
secretary of state Henry Kissinger, who was on a visit to Beijing last week,
underscored the high importance of US-China relations. He told the China Daily
on Sunday, "I consider that [his 1972 visit to China] the single-most important
thing I did in government and the one that had the best permanent effect."
Rice sees China as stakeholder
But then, the problem with Kissinger is that he has a rare ability to make his
interlocutors feel special. On balance, however, it does stand out that the US
is cruising on a velvet patch in its relations with both the Asian powers.
Things couldn't be better from the American point of view. Both China and India
place great store on their respective strategic cooperation with the US.
Rice said in Beijing China is reaching out for a greater role in global affairs
and is opening up, and that's good news. "I can't get into their motivations,
but ... China is opening up to the world in a lot of ways," Rice said after
talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao and other leaders. She noted, "I do
believe that there is more of an effort to reconcile China's size and influence
in international politics, which is a relatively new thing, with China's
foreign policy behavior."
She added, "There is a broadening, I think, in general of China's view of
itself in international politics and I think we're benefiting from it." Rice
singled out China's cooperative role over the North Korea problem, Myanmar and
Sudan's Darfur region, where "China is making an impact".
Rice said, "I see them grappling with the 'responsible stakeholder idea', which
everybody said they couldn't translate. It turns out that they can translate it
and they talk about it actually." She flatly dismissed the idea of using Summer
Olympic Games as leverage, "We've been very clear, the president has been very
clear, that this is a sporting event." And Bush plans to attend the opening
ceremony in Beijing in August.
Clearly, the focus of Rice's visit to Beijing was on the North Korea problem
where China and the US are in the process of working out detailed arrangements
for the next phase of talks on Pyongyang dismantling its nuclear weapons.
Washington needs Beijing's help. Top US nuclear negotiator on North Korea,
Christopher Hill, was "ordered" by Rice to visit Beijing last week, according
to US media reports, and China facilitated "a good substantial discussion" for
Hill with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan. China also chaired a
meeting of North and South Korean officials to discuss the economic
underpinnings of the six-party talks.
Equally, Rice would have discussed the Iran problem with the Chinese leaders.
Tehran acutely senses it may pave the way for a third United Nations Security
Council resolution on tighter sanctions against Iran. Chinese Foreign Minister
Yang Jiechi telephoned Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, on
Wednesday soon after Rice concluded her talks in Beijing. At any rate, Tehran
abruptly called off on Wednesday the signing of the long-awaited US$16 billion
deal with China Offshore Oil Corporation for the development of its North Pars
gas fields, which is estimated to have reserves of 80 trillion cubic feet. The
reason attributed was that the Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari
couldn't attend the signing ceremony in Tehran.
Again, Beijing agreed this week, after having rejected US appeals previously,
to send a battalion of engineers to Darfur. Rice was quick to laud the Chinese
move. The US, on its part, is attending to China's core concern, the Taiwan
issue. As Kissinger put it, "I think Beijing and Washington will cooperate and
really pressure Taipei that if they do not pull back, it could look extremely
unfavorable. I believe that we will avoid a crisis in the Taiwan Strait."
Xinhua news agency reported that Hu and Rice "agreed to step up bilateral
constructive and cooperative relations and handle the bilateral relations in a
long-term and strategic perspective". Hu told Rice, "The cooperation arena
keeps expanding and the strategic significance of the bilateral ties grow
higher and higher". Rice responded that Washington hopes to see Beijing
continuing to play a constructive role in addressing international issues. At a
meeting with State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan, she said the US wanted to strengthen
cooperation with China "so as to promote the resolution of the issues facing
the world". She added that as a responsible member of the international system,
China has played a key role in global affairs.
Tang said, "China-US relations have gone far beyond the bilateral dimension and
hold increasing global influence and important strategic meanings." He
underlined that Rice's visit came at "a very important moment" as the
international and regional situation was evolving. Both Tang and Premier Wen
Jiabao stressed that China-US cooperation makes an important contribution to
the peace, stability and development of the word. Rice concurred that the
"fruitful bilateral relationship and cooperation could help better resolve the
complicated and difficult issues in the international system".
US's defense trade with India
Thus, it came as no surprise that Gates kept his visit to Delhi focused
strictly on US-India military relations. He said, "I don't see our improving
military relationships in the region in the context of any other country,
including China. These expanding relationships don't necessarily have to be
directed to anybody. They are a set of bilateral relationships that are aimed
at improving our coordination and the closeness of our relationships for a
variety of reasons."
Gates' talking points in Delhi related primarily to defense trade. India's
procurement of 126 multi-role combat aircraft in a deal estimated at $10
billion - and possibly, as high as $ 16 billion - was number one priority for
him and for the American defense contractors accompanying him. The principal
bidders include Lockheed Martin's F-16 and Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet.
The importance of the deal is not only commercial, but that the new generation
aircraft will be in use with the Indian Air Force for the next 40-year period
and, therefore, clinching the deal becomes absolutely vital for the US if it is
to aim at "inter-operability" with India. Gates knows it is the sort of deal
that will ensure US-India military-to-military cooperation becomes irreversible
and pin India down as the US's strategic ally in the region.
Indian defense industry sources already speculate that Lockheed Martin could be
pushing for closer ties with India's military to increase its chances in the
above tender. American companies are also keen to secure another Indian tender
for 312 helicopters for its air force and navy worth about $1 billion. In
January, India closed a $1 billion deal with Lockheed Martin for six C-130
Hercules aircraft for its special forces. India is expected to spend another
$30 billion on military purchases by 2012. Gates' message to Indian officials
was that the US defense trade offers the "full package" - sale, technology
transfer, guaranteed supply of spares and co-production.
Gates expressed satisfaction over the entry that the US has made in the Indian
market, which is traditionally dominated by Russia. He said, "We have tried for
some years now to get a seat at the table, and we're finally there." Washington
is determined to throw Russia out of the Indian defense market in the coming
years. The assertiveness of the US sales pitch is evident from the remark by a
US official in Gates's entourage, "When you go into joint production [and]
cooperative development [with the US], you're getting not only the best product
in the world, but you have the best support system, the best maintenance
package over the life of the product. You also have companies that operate with
integrity, which is different than what India has seen with other partners in
the world. We're very transparent."
Washington will incrementally try to persuade India to get rid of its tendering
mechanism altogether - bureaucratic buying and selling processes - and instead
take recourse to direct negotiations. India has already moved in this direction
and begun talks with the US on the purchase of P-8i long-range maritime
reconnaissance patrol aircraft with anti-submarine war capabilities to replace
Russian-made Tu-142M bombers. The deal could be worth $2 billion, the biggest
defense deal so far between the two countries.
Meanwhile, the quantum jump in US-Indian strategic ties in the past two to
three years needs to be consolidated. "We're not
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