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2 China,
India, play it again for Uncle Sam By M K Bhadrakumar
looking for quick
results or big leaps forward, but rather a steady
expansion of this relationship that leaves
everybody comfortable," Gates modestly said.
A lot indeed depends on the fate of the
US-India nuclear civilian deal. Washington is
keeping its fingers crossed about the Indian
government's grit to push the deal despite
vehement domestic opposition. Untrammeled
technology transfer to India and a qualitative
shift of the strategic partnership to de facto
alliance depend on the deal going through.
Washington is, therefore, pulling all stops.
The worrisome thing for Washington,
paradoxically, is that India has a democratic
system. Indian politics are in flux with
approaching parliamentary
elections, while big-ticket items such as India's
participation in the US defense missile system,
India's ties with the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization or India's role in regional security
remain to be finessed. Of course, the elite
leaderships in India's two centrist parties -
Congress and Bhartiya Janata Party - are equally
zealous about making India a "natural ally" of the
US. Gates made it a point to touch base with the
opposition BJP.
However, there is a flip
side insofar as Indian politics have entered a
coalition era and interest groups are multiplying.
Outside of the middle class immersed in the
enchantments of globalization, the vast majority
of Indians grapple with sheer day-to-day survival
- a newborn zone of development surrounded by
endless horizons of depletion.
But then it
is not Gates' problem if acute contradictions are
playing out in India with no historical precedents
to guide it. He returns to Washington a happy man.
He said his discussions with India's leaders were
positive and like-minded. "I encountered
enthusiasm in all of the leaders here I talked
to," he added. "I think ... they see it as we do
... a long-term enterprise by two sovereign
states. We are mindful of India's long tradition
of non-alignment and are respectful of that, but I
think there are a lot of opportunities to expand
on this relationship, and I think that was the
feeling on the part of the Indian leaders that I
met with, as well."
US's Asian strategy
The tricky part for Washington is that the
US must not create apprehensions in the Chinese
mind. Clearly, Washington accords number one
priority in its Asian strategy to relations with
China. US-China economic ties are inexorably
gaining a global character. US-China economic
interdependence rules out a "containment" policy
toward China.
As a People's Daily
commentary in December pointed out, the subprime
loan or mortgage crisis in the US "poses a sound
opportunity for the two sides [US and China] to
reach overall, wide-ranging consensus. With the
seizure of this rare opportunity, the
risk-reduction capacity for both nations will beef
up".
At the Third China-US Strategic
Economic Dialogue in Beijing in December, Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson said, "I think one of our
jobs in the dialogue is to make the case as to why
trade is good, why China's economic success is
good for the US, and the US economic success is
good for China." He stressed that the US-China
relationship has become central to each nation's
interests and to maintaining "a stable, secure and
prosperous global economic system". Paulson has
paid as many as five visits to China during the 20
months since he assumed office. (He visited Delhi
once during this period.)
Unsurprisingly,
therefore, Gates avoided any of the political
rhetoric regarding Asian security that came
naturally to his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld.
First, in the near term, it is Russia and not
China that threatens the US's global dominance.
India is awkwardly placed with regard to
US-Russia-China equations. Russia is still viewed
largely as an ally, while China remains an
adversary in the Indian perception. But Washington
sees things differently.
The US Annual
Threat Assessment presented on February 5 by the
Director of US National Intelligence Michael
McConnell suggests repeatedly that US-Russian
relations stand to become more confrontational. It
highlights the gradual resurgence of Russia's
military forces. Also, an unspoken factor is that
the energy exporting countries are increasingly
challenging the US-dominated post-Bretton Woods
global economic system. Russia, Iran and Venezuela
have spoken of dispensing with the US dollar as
the principal currency of settling energy
accounts. There is talk of the gas-producing
countries forming a cartel along the lines of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries,
which would of course pose a major challenge to
the prevailing international economic system.
Beijing expressed misgivings last year
about a "quadripartite" alliance between the US,
Japan, Australia and India. But the alliance has
since become moribund due to the change of
governments in Japan and Australia and the
priorities of the new leaderships toward relations
with China. The accent for Washington, too, has
changed and is now on drawing in Beijing as a
mainstream player to be part of a multilateral
framework. India is the odd man out, still
figuring out how to come to terms with China's
rise.
For all these reasons, Gates was
careful not to give an "anti-China" flavor to the
US's burgeoning military ties with India. There
are other inter-linkages as well. Ironically, the
US-India nuclear deal, which would boost their
strategic ties, itself cannot go through without
China's cooperation. The minimum that Beijing
expects from Washington is that US-India strategic
cooperation will not be directed against China.
In sum, Rice's mission to Beijing and
Gates's stopover in Delhi become a case study of
the US's evolving Asian strategy. Washington's
preoccupation with containing resurgent Russia is
set to become a major driving force behind the
US's Asian strategy. And the isolation of Russia
can work only if Washington whittles down
Sino-Russian (and Russian-Indian) strategic
cooperation.
Alongside comes Washington's
need to make China a stakeholder in global
security. US-China economic interdependence has
reached a level where any attempt by Washington to
hurt China can result in hurting itself and the
world economy. Thus, Gates' visit to Delhi becomes
a reality check for Indian strategists.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
over 29 years, with postings including India's
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
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