Pakistan's grand bargain falls
apart By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Over the past few months, the
Pakistani military's new leadership has devised a
roadmap aimed at national reconciliation without
compromising the country's commitment in the "war
on terror".
The plan centered on
developing an understanding with the Pakistani
Taliban in the tribal areas that at the onset of a
planned military offensive there, both sides would
attempt to keep losses to the minimum; that is,
they would go through the motions while Pakistan
fulfilled its obligations in the eyes of the world
in cracking down on militancy.
Initially,
the project went well. But, coinciding with the
visit this week to Pakistan - the second in a
month - of the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of
Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, and a series
of
suicide
attacks, the situation has changed.
Mullen
was due to meet with President Pervez Musharraf
and military leaders to discuss US assistance for
a massive military operation in Pakistan, under US
supervision, against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
In the latest suicide attack on the
military, the fourth in five days, bombers on
Tuesday targeted the Navy War College in Lahore,
killing six people and injuring 18. This string of
attacks leaves the new military chief, Lieutenant
General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, with the unpopular
choice of having to take off the velvet glove to
reveal an iron fist against militancy.
The
chief beneficiary of this would be Musharraf, who
has rapidly been losing his grip in the wake of
Kiani's popular steps of reconciliation.
Politicians elected in last month's polls for a
new Parliament have already indicated they want to
oust Musharraf for his heavy-handed role in
prosecuting the "war on terror" during his eight
years as a military ruler.
The militants
are also concerned now. Under Kiani's initiative,
they would have been restricted to isolated areas
on the border areas and, apart from token raids
against them by the Pakistani military, been
allowed to get on with their "business".
The understanding was that once the
Taliban and al-Qaeda were thus contained, it would
create space for the forces of democracy to assert
themselves in the country under the new
government, and Musharraf could walk into the
sunset.
In the longer term, these measures
could have ended the hostilities in Pakistani
society that were the result of eight years of
military rule and Pakistan's active participation
in the "war on terror".
Guns at the
ready According to Asia Times Online
contacts, a military operation is imminent,
starting from a base camp in Peshawar in
North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The main
focus will be Mohmand and Bajaur agencies, and
some other tribal areas, to pre-empt the Taliban's
spring offensive in Afghanistan.
Under the
initial plan, the operation would have been
largely symbolic and the militants had been
convinced that if they remained at the forefront
and fought against Pakistani troops, their
positions would be exposed to the foreign
supervisors and they would sustain huge losses.
Instead, if they struck ceasefire deals
and retreated from forward positions to the border
regions, they would be helped with advance
information about possible raids and they could
take alternative measures for their survival. They
were categorically told that the operation was
inevitable, so it would be best for them to take
rear positions and flit on both sides of the
border for their survival.
The military
rationale for adopting this approach was based on
pragmatic grounds - that it would cause the
militants to evacuate the main tribal areas for
Afghanistan or the tribal fringes. This would
allow secular Pashtun sub-nationalist forces to
regain a hold in the area and develop an
atmosphere of peace and reconciliation.
The military would ensure that Musharraf
could then make an honorable exit. These steps
were aimed at ending hostilities between the
military establishment and political parties, as
well as the militants. At the same time, it would
help bring the extremely alienated right-wing
military section in NWFP and in Punjab province
(mostly non-commissioned officers) on board.
They have been actively involved in
leaking information to militants, and in some
cases have been hand-in-hand with them in
attacking officers and camps. A senior official
told Asia Times Online that Tuesday's attack in
Lahore could have been done by members of the
camp.
The grand bargain is unraveling,
though. The recent missile attack by a US Predator
drone on militants in the tribal area helped stir
the militants' skepticism of any deal and
different independent groups continued to attack
the security forces.
The first glimpse the
iron fist came last week when Kiani ordered more
than 1,000 raids in several cities and hundreds of
suspected militants were arrested. This was the
biggest operation in the past 12 months and
followed the assassination of the surgeon-general
of the Pakistani army.
Pakistan therefore
finds itself back at square one, with the old
divisions of pro-American and anti-American
revived in the military and no doubt stoked by
Musharraf during his meeting with Admiral Mullen.
This is Musharraf's chance to regroup in the
pro-American camp by presenting himself as being
in the best position to serve US interests in the
region.
For the militant camps, they
realize their attacks on the security forces will
benefit their real enemy - Musharraf - and cause
unity in the secular camps. But they also have
doubts about Kiani's moves that will banish them
to rear positions while at the same time
facilitating tribal jirgas (councils) to
devise a strategy to combat the Taliban!
Last weekend, such a jirga was held
in Derra Adam Khail, about 40 kilometers West of
Peshawar, in which ideas were discussed among
tribal leaders to curb the Taliban in their area.
When the jirga concluded, a suicide bomber
attacked the crowd, resulting in the death of over
50 people.
With Kiani's hand being forced,
and militants not ready to roll over just yet,
Pakistan is a long way off peace.
Syed
Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's
Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright
2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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