Al-Qaeda adds muscle to the Taliban's fight
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - From many hundreds, al-Qaeda now has fewer than 75 Arabs involved in
the Afghan "war on terror" theater, but the group is more lethal in that it has
successfully established a local franchise of warriors who have fully embraced
al-Qaeda's ideology and who are capable of conducting a war of attrition
against the coalition in Afghanistan.
In the years following the United States-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001,
al-Qaeda lost hundreds of members, either killed or arrested or departed to
other regions. These included diehard Arab ideologues such as Mustapha Seth
Marium (arrested) and commanders Abu Laith al-Libbi (killed) and Abdul Hadi
al-Iraqi (arrested) .
And this month, news of the death in January of Abdul Hameed, alias Abu Obaida
al-Misri, from Hepatitis B, was released to
Western intelligence. He was a most-trusted aide of al-Qaeda deputy Dr Ayman
al-Zawahiri and had been appointed by Osama bin Laden as the head of the khuruj
(revolt) in Pakistan. He was in his mid-50s.
While al-Qaeda was suffering losses, Pakistan's tribal areas became
increasingly radicalized, which al-Qaeda was able to tap into to reinvigorate
the Afghan insurgency. When military operations chopped off its vertical
growth, it grew horizontally.
This defied intelligence estimates, polls, analysis and strategic opinions.
Former US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld was of the opinion that by 2003,
as a result of US military operations in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda had been
destroyed as an organization and it was unable to strike against US interests.
However, the US National Intelligence Estimate report in July 2007 said
al-Qaeda had regrouped and posed a threat to the US homeland. Recently, US
President George W Bush also said al-Qaeda was a serious threat.
The year 2007 was important for al-Qaeda's development as several stand-alone
Arab groups operating in Pakistan's tribal areas, including Libyans and
Egyptians, either merged into al-Qaeda or made an alliance in which they would
be subservient to al-Qaeda's command.
With al-Qaeda losing key members, a vacuum should have been created, but that
did not happen, and another figure has emerged - Maulana Ilyas Kashmiri. He is
a veteran fighter of the Kashmir struggle, groomed by Pakistan's Inter-Service
Intelligence's India cell.
Islamabad's clampdown on activities in Kashmir and being arrested a few times
disheartened Kashmiri, and he moved to the North Waziristan tribal area. He was
soon followed by his diehard Punjabi colleagues and they made Afghanistan their
new battlefield.
This year, a "crossbreed" of fighters - a combination of Arab command and that
of Kashmiri, as well as an alliance with tribal warlord Baitullah Mehsud - is
expected to spring some surprises in Afghanistan.
"The Taliban are tribal warriors. They only understand guerrilla operations as
hit-and-run raids," a group leader for the Taliban-led spring offensive told
Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity.
"They are not familiar, for instance, with mopping operations. The new fighters
who were trained for Kashmir are expert in these operations and this year this
expertise will certainly make a difference in Afghanistan," the group leader
said, in reference to attacks in which guerrillas hit a target and completely
destroy it before they leave.
Another improvement this year will be the introduction of new technology, and
again credit for this goes to the Punjabi fighters. These include a mortar that
is under a meter long and weighs only five kilograms, and silencers for AK 47s.
The Punjabis believe such weapons will enable them to start special operations,
such as targeted killings of high-profile enemies.
The strategy to cut the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) supply
lines was the brainchild of the Punjabi fighters. They also chose Pakistan's
Khyber Agency and the neighboring Afghan province of Nangarhar - most unlikely
places for Taliban operations - as the focus of the spring offensive.
Wednesday's events in Khyber Agency are illuminating and could herald a new
flashpoint in the "war on terror".
Local tribes were given money by the Americans to secure the area from Taliban
activities. US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte recently visited
Khyber Agency and met a few tribal elders. As a result, the tribesmen gave an
ultimatum to the pro-Taliban Lashkar-i-Islam, as well as to the Pakistan
government's representative in the agency, to leave the area.
Lashkar-i-Islam refused, leading to clashes with anti-Taliban forces supported
by Pakistani troops. Fighting raged into early Thursday and involved heavy
weapons, including missiles, rockets and mortars. Taliban contacts confirmed to
Asia Times Online that this event will lead to a new round of attacks against
Pakistani security forces.
In addition, the Taliban have escalated attacks on a highway being built in
Nimroze (a few Indian workers were killed) which connects Afghanistan to Iran's
Chabahar port. The only alternative remains the "doubly land-locked route"
through Russia, which is a difficult if not impossible route for NATO supplies.
The Taliban have also suspended suicide attacks to allow political parties like
the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group), the second-largest party in the
ruling coalition government, to counter US influence on military operations in
Pakistan. The League is said to have a soft spot for militants. If the
government succumbs to US pressure, the militants will resume the attacks. (The
use of local tribes against the pro-Taliban militia in Khyber Agency is good
enough reason to switch on the attacks.)
In a new round of violence in Pakistan, the death of Abu Obaida al-Misri could
have been a blow. But under a new arrangement, Khalid Habib is the new man
in-charge in coordination with an Arab and Ilyas Kashmiri - a formidable troika
for the Pakistani security forces.
The militants often discuss the dwindling numbers of Arab fighters within their
ranks, and in doing so refer to the Prophet Mohammad's saying that before the
end of time battles, the Arab tribes will be reduced to minimum numbers. The
militants take strength from this.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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