Taliban reap a peace
dividend By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - As the temperature rises in the
southern mountain vastness of Afghanistan and the
melting snow floods the rivers, a blizzard of
militancy awaits North Atlantic Treaty
Organization troops. At the same time, Pakistan is
firmly in the spotlight as Western dignitaries
flood to the country to back the new government's
resolve for peace talks with local militants to
lay down their arms to pave the way for the
isolation of al-Qaeda.
Most recently,
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and
European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana
were in Pakistan to support the government's
initiative. Senior government and military
officials from the United States are expected
soon.
In what has been hailed as a
significant move, the
sub-nationalist
Pashtun Awami National Party
government of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)
released controversial senior pro-Taliban mullah
Sufi Muhammad, after he agreed not to engage in
violence. This followed a visit to NWFP by
Miliband, during which he met top leaders.
The governments in Islamabad and Britain
have greeted the deal with Sufi as a "landmark
success", but the military distanced itself from
the move, concerned it has more to do with
political gamesmanship than realities on the
ground, in which uncompromising new players have
taken over from people such as Sufi, a moderate by
comparison.
And in one way the
government's peace program plays right into the
hands of the Taliban: the more the security forces
halt their operations in the tribal areas, the
better the Taliban can launch their spring
offensive in Afghanistan, which is only weeks
away.
Already, the Taliban have had one of
their most "peaceful" runups to a spring offensive
since being ousted in 2001, given Pakistan's
political turmoil following the assassination of
Benazir Bhutto last December and elections in
February, and various ceasefires in the tribal
areas with the Pakistan military.
Contacts
in the tribal areas tell Asia Times Online that by
early May the Taliban will have sent all their
thousands of men, arms and supplies into
Afghanistan. The mood, according to the contacts,
is upbeat, and commanders expect May and June to
be especially "hot" for foreign troops.
The Taliban also made it clear on Monday
that they will keep the noose tight on NATO's
supply lines through Pakistan to Afghanistan. They
seized two workers of the World Food Organization
in Khyber Agency. The workers were rescued by
Pakistani security forces after an exchange of
fire - and this on the same day that Sufi Muhammad
was released.
Overtaken by time
Sufi Muhammad is a founder of the
Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Muhammadi (TNSM), a
movement started for the enforcement of Islamic
law in the Swat Valley and Malakand regions in
NWFP.
On his release after six years in jail on Monday,
he was taken to the chief minister's residence to
sign a peace deal with the government. He was
quoted as saying that he condemned violence and
believed in peaceful co-existence.
Sufi
rose to prominence in the mid-1990s during Benazir
Bhutto's second administration (1993-1996), when
his armed followers blocked key roads to back
their demands for the implementation of Islamic
law in their area. Bhutto subsequently repeatedly
claimed that the armed rebellion was set up by the
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to destabilize
her government. In the late 1990s, Nawaz Sharif's
government granted Sufi's demand and framed
Islamic laws for the Swat Valley.
After
September 11, 2001, Sufi gathered approximately
10,000 untrained armed men to fight against the US
invasion of Afghanistan, despite Taliban leader
Mullah Omar's opposition. Most of them were either
killed or arrested by the Americans or kidnapped
by local warlords for ransom. Sufi managed to
escape unhurt from Afghanistan, only to be
arrested at the border and jailed in Pakistan.
In his absence, the TNSM regrouped under
Maulana Muhammad Alam and was allowed to operate
with the tacit consent of the ISI. But Sufi's
son-in-law Mullah Fazlullah, who had become
radicalized after meeting al-Qaeda deputy Ayman
al-Zawahiri, wanted to take the group in a
different direction.
He established his
own radio station to deliver firebrand
anti-establishment speeches, and his popularity
sky-rocketed in the Swat Valley. He brushed off
warnings from Sufi and the ISI to cool down and
listen to the dictates of the local authorities.
In was clear Fazlullah was taking
instructions from al-Qaeda, and Sufi and Alam
distanced themselves from him before expelling him
from the TNSM.
Fazlullah now runs his own
"TNSM", overwhelmingly comprising youth from the
Swat Valley, Dir and Malakand. He also has close
ties with Pakistani Taliban hardliner Baitullah
Mehsud in the South Waziristan tribal area.
When the Pakistani military mounted an
operation in the Swat Valley last year against
Fazlullah, the locals surrendered at the first
push and Fazlullah was forced to retreat. But he
was then joined by Uzbek fighters and a guerrilla
war continues. The deep radical influence of
al-Qaeda's ideology has changed the dynamics of
the insurgency in the region.
The upshot
of this is that making deals with Sufi is of
little significance - Fazlullah was quick to
announce to the media that he had nothing to do
with the peace agreement. That is, the insurgency
in the Swat Valley will continue, and in the
bigger picture, the Taliban will prime their guns
without hindrance.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan
Bureau Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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