US runs out of patience with Pakistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The words came from Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the weekend,
threatening to send troops into Pakistani territory in hot pursuit of the
Taliban, but Islamabad has no doubts Karzai was reading from a script prepared
by the United States.
The message is crystal clear: Pakistan's failure to cooperate at the
sub-strategic level leaves the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) with
no alternative but to mobilize the newly trained Afghan National Army into
Pakistan whenever it sees fit.
Karzai said his country had the right to "self defense", adding, "When they
[militants] cross the territory from Pakistan to come
and kill Afghans and to kill coalition troops it gives us the right to go back
and do the same.
"[Pakistani Taliban leader] Baitullah Mehsud should know that we will go after
him now and hit him in his house. And the other fellow, [Taliban leader] Mullah
Omar of Pakistan, should know the same," said Karzai.
Karzai was reacting to a bad week for the Afghan government and NATO, which
lost at least 15 troops in various incidents. Kabul was embarrassed by a
carefully planned operation in the southern city of Kandahar in which suicide
bombers and about 100 Taliban attacked a jail, resulting in the death of nearly
20 security forces and the escape of over 1,000 prisoners, including 380
Taliban. And in another attack on Saturday, the governor of Helmand province
was injured and the police chief killed.
NATO headquarters see the spate of violence as the result of the Taliban's
training in Pakistani territory and their ability to easily cross the border
into Afghanistan.
The Taliban completed their launch of men last month, promising specific,
target-oriented attacks such as the jail operation.
In response, NATO wanted to catch the Taliban in a pincer movement, with
Pakistani forces operating from the Mohmand and Bajaur tribal agencies and NATO
across the border in Kunar and Nooristan provinces. (See
Pakistan's grand bargain falls apart Asia Times Online, March 6.)
Asia Times Online was the first publication to write about US strikes using
Predator drones and later a detailed story was published in the New York Times
citing US officials who confirmed plans to target Taliban and al-Qaeda
sanctuaries in the Pakistani tribal areas, with Pakistani help.
Following US pressure, Pakistan prepared its plan, which Asia Times Online
outlined on March 6:
According to Asia Times Online contacts, a
military operation is imminent, starting from a base camp in Peshawar in
North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The main focus will be Mohmand and Bajaur
agencies, and some other tribal areas, to pre-empt the Taliban's spring
offensive in Afghanistan.
Under the initial plan, the operation would have been largely symbolic and the
militants had been convinced that if they remained at the forefront and fought
against Pakistani troops, their positions would be exposed to the foreign
supervisors and they would sustain huge losses.
Instead, if they struck ceasefire deals and retreated from forward positions to
the border regions, they would be helped with advance information about
possible raids and they could take alternative measures for their survival.
They were categorically told that the operation was inevitable, so it would be
best for them to take rear positions and flit on both sides of the border for
their survival.
The military rationale for adopting this approach was based on pragmatic
grounds - that it would cause the militants to evacuate the main tribal areas
for Afghanistan or the tribal fringes. This would allow secular Pashtun
sub-nationalist forces to regain a hold in the area and develop an atmosphere
of peace and reconciliation.
The scheme was a blueprint to get
rid of the Taliban-led insurgency from Pakistan and force it back into
Afghanistan, but NATO considered it a betrayal on the part of Pakistan,
especially it turning a blind eye to the Taliban crossing the border with
impunity.
Faced now with the very real threat of coalition raids into its territory,
Pakistan might be forced to restart military operations in the tribal areas.
Meanwhile, President Pervez Musharraf will have to play a significant role in
reassuring Washington that Pakistan is still on board in the "war on terror"
and that the Americans need to be patient. Time is not on his side, though.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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