India-Pakistan peace on track, somehow By Praful Bidwai
ISLAMABAD - As Pakistan stumbles towards democratization amid domestic
political uncertainty, armed unrest led by Islamists along the Afghanistan
border, and strained military relations with the United States, a broad
consensus in favor of the peace process with India survives - almost
miraculously.
However, proponents of the process on both sides of the border will have to do
a good deal more to make it sustainable.
Many long-term trends point toward Pakistan's evolution into a full and robust
democracy. But many things can go wrong in the short-run, especially as regards
the restoration of the superior court judges dismissed by President Pervez
Musharraf last year, and the fate of the shaky ruling coalition between the
assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan
People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) led by ex-premier Nawaz
Sharif.
That is the main conclusion following a recent visit to Pakistan, during the
course of which I met a cross-section of political observers, social
scientists, former policymakers and civil society activists.
Three clusters of factors are likely to determine the outcome of the present
tussle in Pakistan between the forces of participatory democracy and
conservative elements yearning for the continued dominance of the military in
public life.
The first cluster consists of short-term moves by key players, including
Musharraf, Bhutto's widower and PPP co-chair Asif Ali Zardari, and Sharif -
besides a sustained and impressive movement by lawyers for the restoration of
dismissed judges - culminating in the ongoing roughly 640-kilometer march, from
Multan to the capital Islamabad.
The second set of factors has to do with the complex relationship between
Musharraf, Washington and the Pakistan army, which has come under unprecedented
strain following the June 10 killing of 11 Pakistani soldiers in a US missile
attack on a tribal area near the Afghanistan border. The Pakistan government
has condemned this is as an act of naked aggression.
The third cluster is formed by the strategies of political parties in response
to public opinion, which has emerged as a major force in Pakistan. It favors
wholesome democratization and accountable governance.
Political turmoil has ensured that four months after national elections,
Pakistan still lacks a stable government. Most of the PPP-PML(N)'s promises
remain unfulfilled and the PML(N) is unlikely to return to the cabinet from
which it walked out in protest over the PPP's refusal to quickly reinstate
judges dismissed by Musharraf.
The two parties continue their uneasy alliance. "This was not unexpected given
their disparate social and geographical bases, leadership backgrounds and
political priorities," says political scientist Rasul Bakhsh Rais. "The central
question is whether they can hold together until Musharraf makes his
long-overdue exit and the army's role is weakened enough for a robustly
democratic constitutional government to become possible."
However, Zardari lacks the courage to confront Musharraf and is under US
pressure to let him continue as president even if the judiciary is not
restored.
Washington has convinced itself, against sober counsel, that Musharraf remains
its best ally in fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda, although his record is
patchy and it is not clear that the Pakistan army will defend him in a
confrontation with the civilian government.
Zardari is probably too tainted by his alleged involvement in corruption to
want to risk a reopening of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), which
indemnified him against prosecution.
Many analysts, such as Karachi-based M B Naqvi, believe the NRO will be
reopened if chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is reinstated. "Zardari," he says,
"has simply appropriated the PPP after his wife's assassination. He has no
independent standing and is vulnerable to pressure, especially by the US."
Sharif is adamant that "Musharraf the usurper" must go at once. His clear
anti-Musharraf, pro-judiciary stand, coupled with the public's disenchantment
with military rule has brought Sharif a groundswell of backing from traditional
PPP supporters, including the left-liberal intelligentsia.
Sharif's stand corresponds to the prevalent mood in Pakistan, which is against
hierarchy and authoritarianism, and favors democratization. The impressively
tenacious lawyers' movement both expresses this phenomenon and has infused
energy into it.
This is in keeping with recent social trends: a media explosion with free,
robust debate; the spread of education; and the self-assertion of certain
social groups. "The most important of these groups are self-confident urban and
rural middle-income strata, which have broken some shackles of the old feudal
order and are looking for opportunities of self-expression and a better
future," says Rais.
"These strata instinctively distrust the army for its economic mismanagement
and corruption, and demand greater accountability and better governance. For
instance, Pakistan's electricity supply situation is terrible, with blackouts
for four to eight hours a day. Ordinary people know that a major reason for
this is that the military regime didn't add a single megawatt to generation in
eight years," Rais added.
Popular aspirations also offer hope for relations with India. In recent
Pakistani politics hostility with India has hardly figured. The new civilian
government has vowed to continue the peace process with India - originally
launched by Musharraf four years ago. It says it will do so in a spirit of
"grand reconciliation".
Political scientist Mohammad Waseem says this sentiment is rooted in major
social trends: "A generational shift is under way - from an India-centric
military-bureaucratic and political elite, to one which was born in the post-
Independence period. The consciousness of the old elite was shaped by
opposition between 'Hindu India' and 'Muslim Pakistan', by the notion of 'a
clash of cultures' defined by religion, and by bitter memories of partition [in
1947]."
However, says Waseem, "the new generation which has matured in the recent past
does not define itself mainly by opposition to India. It is free of the burden
of a uniquely violent past linked to the mass killings of Partition. It does
not associate Pakistan's survival with hostility towards India."
India could also greatly help Pakistan's democratization and demilitarization
processes if it makes generous gestures such as unilaterally liberalizing
imports of Pakistani goods and services, and loosening the visa regime.
Much will depend on the talks to be held in Delhi at the end of June between
India and Pakistan. If talks succeed, they may be followed by Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh visiting Pakistan and genuine progress.
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