Desperate Delhi wheels and deals
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - After months of dithering over a civilian nuclear deal with the
United States, India's ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition seems
ready to bite the bullet.
It has signaled its intention to take the deal to the next stage and is
expected to go to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to finalize an
India-specific safeguards agreement, even if it means losing the support of
left parties.
A possible marriage of convenience with an old foe, the Samajwadi Party (SP)
that the Congress party, which heads the UPA, is hoping to seal appears to have
emboldened Congress to defy the left and press ahead with the nuclear deal.
On Sunday, Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) general
secretary Prakash Karat warned that his party would pull the plug if the
government took the agreement to the IAEA.
The India-US nuclear deal has been in a comatose state for several months,
having run into domestic opposition in India. The left, on whose outside
support the UPA government depends, is opposed to the deal and has stood in the
way of the government taking the agreement to the next step, that is,
presenting the India-specific safeguards agreement to the IAEA board of
governors for its approval. Several rounds of meetings have taken place between
the UPA and the left but the latter has refused to budge.
This month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is reported to have issued an
ultimatum to his party that if it did not back him on the nuclear deal, he
would resign. Manmohan, who is due to attend the Group of Eight summit in Japan
on July 7-9, where he will meet US President George W Bush and other leaders,
apparently said that a decision on the deal with the IAEA would have to be
taken "one way or another", before he traveled to Tokyo.
Foreign policy experts have warned that India's failure to take the next steps
on the nuclear deal will undermine its credibility on the world stage. It will
be a major loss of face, not to mention a lost opportunity.
The agreement provides for peaceful nuclear cooperation that will allow the two
countries to trade in nuclear reactors, technology and fuel. India would be
allowed to reprocess nuclear fuel and the way would be opened for the US to
become a "reliable" supplier for India's energy program.
The deal is running out of time and it has at least three hurdles to cross. It
has to be approved by the IAEA board of governors, after which all 45 members
of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) must agree to lift restrictions on
nuclear trade with India. And then it has to be approved by the US Congress.
The nuclear deal has bipartisan support in the present US Congress. There is no
guarantee that the next administration will keep the deal on the table. Hence
the rush to have it passed. But this will require India to hand over the
safeguards text to the IAEA at the latest in July, so it can complete
ratification within 45 days.
If the deal clears the NSG by the end of September, it can be presented to the
US Congress, but with elections there in November, there may not be enough time
to vote on the deal. India appears to be hoping the deal will be taken up and
passed by congress when it meets after elections before the new administration
takes over in January.
This tight deadline means the UPA has to get its act together. It is caught in
a dilemma. If it buckles under left pressure and fails to take the deal
forward, it is giving up an historic opportunity to end nuclear-armed India's
isolation. What is more, it will be blamed for putting political survival above
national interest.
On the other hand, there are the consequences of defying the left.
The UPA has 226 seats in the 545-member Lower House of parliament and a parting
of ways with the left, which has 59 seats, will leave it short of a majority.
This could mean elections, which the UPA is loathe to face at this juncture as
it has lost a string of recent state assembly elections and double-digit
inflation and soaring prices are likely to cost the ruling coalition dearly.
But there are signs the Congress party is now ready to take the risk of defying
the left. On Saturday, Congress president and chairperson of the UPA, Sonia
Gandhi, called on her party to prepare for elections. Earlier, she came out in
support of the nuclear deal, endorsing Manmohan's position.
Many in the Congress party as well as the other UPA constituents, while
supportive of the nuclear deal, are uneasy about facing the electorate soon.
Support from the SP, which has 39 seats, and a few smaller parties could offset
the loss of left backing and help the UPA avoid immediate elections. There are
strong indications that the SP and the UPA will get together. The UPA
government has withdrawn a case against SP leader Mulayam Singh. There is a new
cordiality between the Congress and leaders of the SP.
The SP and the Congress have been bitter enemies. In 1999, when the Congress
was on the verge of forming a coalition government, the SP pulled the rug from
under Sonia Gandhi's feet. Personal and political rivalry has marked the
relationship until recently - political survival has transformed them from foes
to bedfellows.
Neither the Congress nor the SP is ready to fight elections at the moment. They
need each other to fight their common foe, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the
crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.
If the SP backs the UPA, then the government will go to the IAEA. The SP is
expected to announce its position on July 3.
Going to the IAEA will not only push the nuclear deal an important step
forward, it will enable the Congress party to claim that it did fight tooth and
nail to make it happen.
Yet it might already be too late. It is difficult to see just how the deal can
pass through the IAEA, the NSG and the US Congress within a few months. The UPA
government cannot expect to make it to the finish line this year, but it would
like to be seen to have crossed the IAEA hurdle, and with some luck the NSG as
well.
The IAEA is expected to be no problem as it is headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, a
proponent of the deal. IAEA officials have apparently indicated to the Indian
government that a meeting of the board of governors to ratify the safeguards
agreement can be scheduled at short notice.
The deal's race through the NSG is likely to be more tortuous. Optimists point
out that the NSG is more favorably disposed towards lifting restrictions on
India now than it has ever been. With South Africa's Abdus Samad Minty, known
for his strong anti-proliferation stance, gone from the NSG chair and Germany
at the head of the body, the going for India might be easier. Indian officials
have also spent over a year crisscrossing world's capitals to convince NSG
members to back the deal.
But the going for India in the NSG is unlikely to be the cakewalk some in India
are making it out to be. "They couldn't be further from the truth. Many
countries have asked for more time to study the agreement, which may be based
on a template but has enough unique features in it to warrant closer
inspection," points out Indrani Bagchi of the Times of India.
Some Scandinavian countries, Ireland and New Zealand are said to be still
strongly opposed to backing India in the NSG. Delhi appears to be banking on
the US to muscle its way through the NSG to swing the vote. This might work
with many members, but could harm India's chances with non-proliferation
hardliners.
First, though, the SP deal has to come through. It will be another matter for
the Congress to push the deal without the SP and it has to face an angry
electorate.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore. (Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact us about
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