US hopes pinned on Musharraf
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Since assuming office at the beginning of the year, Pakistan's
coalition civilian government has gone to extreme lengths to develop a
consensus for the impeachment of President Pervez Musharraf, the general who
until February had ruled the country after staging a coup in 1999.
The coalition, led by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and former prime
minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), want Musharraf to be
held accountable for last year imposing a state of emergency and sacking the
judiciary.
To reassure Washington and secure its continued support, the
politicians even tried to clip the wings of the powerful Inter-Services
Intelligence, and sent Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on an unscheduled
visit to the United States in an attempt to convince the George W Bush
administration that the "war on terror" could be fought without Musharraf.
Washington, however, has other ideas, and Musharraf remains central to them as
the point man for smooth and direct coordination between Pakistani and American
forces to sort out the Taliban's and al-Qaeda's sanctuaries in North-West
Frontier Province (NWFP) and beyond on the border areas with Afghanistan. These
sanctuaries are vital in supporting the Taliban-led insurgency in that country.
Bickering between the PPP and the PML-N has to date prevented them from
agreeing on Musharraf's impeachment, but intense negotiations over the past few
days are expected to result in a united move to have him removed from office.
In this tense situation, Musharraf canceled a trip to Beijing to attend the
opening of the Summer Olympic Games on Friday, but then reports emerged that he
would attend the ceremony.
Washington will be watching developments with acute interest. Since the US-led
invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Musharraf has sided with the US in its "war on
terror", and Washington believes he is still the man to deliver.
Musharraf stepped down as chief of the army last November and officially holds
few executive powers - these reside in the prime minister's office.
However, Musharraf retains support in the military and in the civilian
bureaucracy. Beyond loyalty to the man himself, he is a force to be reckoned
with as American economic and military aid worth billions of dollars flows
though the president's office.
Washington has gone as far as telling the new army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez
Kiani, and Premier Gilani that its contact is Musharraf, through whom the money
flows. Major General Mehmood Ali Durrani, the national security advisor and
immediate past Pakistani ambassador to Washington, is second overseer of the
aid money and looks after operational matters related to their distribution.
It is these men the Bush administration wants in a renewed effort to once and
for all deal with the militancy in NWFP and the tribal areas.
Acting US Central Command commander Lieutenant General Martin Dempsey and
Central Intelligence Agency deputy director Stephen Kappes recently visited
Pakistan. Contacts familiar with these developments tell Asia Times Online that
several approaches to the NWFP were discussed.
One was that "extraordinary measures" might be adopted, under which the
president would exercise extraordinary powers embedded in the constitution to
abandon all provincial assemblies and instead of holding fresh elections impose
a state of emergency in the country, citing militant-led violence in the NWFP.
Another approach would be to use the existing democratic system and somehow
install the sub-Pashtun nationalist and secular Awami National Party (ANP), led
by Asfandyar Wali Khan, in the government.
First, though, the ANP, which rules the NWFP, would have to be given special
powers to deal with the militancy in its province. This would be done through
the president's office in Islamabad. The relatively liberal ANP is anti-Taliban
and supported the pro-Russian government in Afghanistan in the 1980s and early
1990s.
Much then depends on Musharraf retaining his position, and how the Taliban and
al-Qaeda respond to any increased powers that the ANP administration might turn
against them.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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