KATHMANDU - President Ram Baran Yadav would have found himself in the midst of
dignitaries and luminaries at the Beijing Summer Olympic Games opening ceremony
last Friday, but unsettling political issues at home compelled him to cancel
the visit to China. His presence at the closing ceremony on August 24 is also
under threat.
Had the planned sojourn in China materialized, it would have been a historic
trip for Yadav, who was sworn in as post-monarchy Nepal's first president on
July 23: it was to be his first visit abroad. A flight to China would have also
broken the tradition which required a Nepali head of state to make his maiden
visit to
southern neighbor India.
The president's presence in Kathmandu became a must as the deadline he had set
for the Maoists to form a government by consensus was coming to an end on
Friday. As the leader of Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the party which
emerged as the largest in April 10 poll, chairman Prachanda had been invited by
the president to put up a government with the support from allies in the
601-strong Constituent Assembly.
However, Prachanda's bid to secure a nod of help mainly from three of the 25
parties in the assembly did not succeed, thereby forcing him to inform the
president of his inability to head the republic's first government with
executive powers.
The president, as the constitutional head, then had to send a message to the
assembly to elect the prime minister. "All emerging trends show that the phase
of consensus and cooperation has ended," said Daman Dhungana, a former speaker
of parliament with a strong Nepali Congress background. The next phase is
likely to be of competition leading to confrontation of a devastating kind, he
added. The main task - of drafting a new constitution - is being pushed to the
sidelines. Dhungana wondered how the ongoing peace process could reach its
logical end.
The Maoist leaders believe that their initial attempt to woo like-minded
political groups into their fold were thwarted primarily due to conspiracies
hatched both internally and externally. Sources in the Maoist camp claim that
conspirators were working at the promptings of New Delhi and Washington. But
negotiators on the other side of the table, mainly from the centrist Nepali
Congress and the moderate group UML, rejected these allegations.
On the contrary, the UML accused the Maoists of betrayal at the instigation of
intelligence agents working for India's Research and Analysis Wing. Had it not
been the case, UML insiders contend, former general secretary Madhav Kumar
Nepal ("Nepal" is a family name in the country) would have been elected
president. Caretaker Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala had been another
contender for the top post. Since he found his name unacceptable to rivals, he
quickly fielded Yadav, who eventually carried the day.
In Koirala's perception, he was prevented from becoming the republic's first
president by Prachanda; that is why he tried to block Prachanda's election as
prime minister. Some saw the 85-year-old Koirala's attitude as a natural
reaction, others found it sheer churlishness displayed by an elderly leader of
high standing. It is a fact that except for the Maoists, all other parties were
reluctant partners in the agenda aimed at transforming Nepal from a monarchy to
the republic. But now there is a battle among leaders to claim credit for this
"landmark change" - a change that appears to be pushing Nepal into a protracted
phase of transition, fraught with instability and disorder.
Nepal is no longer a country known for peace and tranquility. Villages have
been made unsafe by armed groups, often raising ethnic slogans with
secessionist overtones. Urban dwellers are terrorized by criminals who often
pass as members of the Young Communist League (YCL), belonging to the Maoist
party or Youth Force, associated with the UML.
Travel on highways is not safe much of the time. If spared by bandits, bus
passengers and other highway users are likely to be held up for hours, if not
for days, by agitated crowds of villagers who block their passage by placing
big boulders and felled trees on the roads should one of them be killed by a
passing vehicle. The government is unable or unwilling to intervene.
Similarly, street violence has increased, with little government reaction. In
July, the International Crisis Group said "law and order is in tatters".
A large number of people in the predominantly agricultural country face
starvation. Media reports from districts in remote far western hills claim that
about 4 million people are affected by food shortages. The worst-affected
district is Bajhaang, where 30 of the 47 villages are "directly affected" by
food shortages, the official newspaper, Gorakhapatra, reported on Sunday.
People are leaving their villages in hundreds, going to towns in the southern
plains in search of food. The less are often seen crossing the border to India
without any definite place to go.
Local yields are insufficient, but authorities are not making arrangements for
additional supplies from adjoining areas.
The political leadership appear criminally indifferent and insensitive to human
lives. And those in the opposition look as dull as the dead.
That Nepal possesses the characteristics of a fragile, if not failed, state is
obvious. It ranks 22nd among 141 countries selected to be included in an "Index
of state weakness in the developing world", which was prepared this year by the
Brookings Institution in the US. The 21 countries where the situation is worse
than in Nepal include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Iraq, Haiti and North Korea. The
index is based on relative performance in four critical spheres: economic,
political, security and social welfare.
This worrisome scenario, analysts say, offers grounds for possible external
intervention. The Chinese are restive and unhappy because "Free Tibet"
activists conduct their campaigns freely, despite Kathmandu's official
assurances that Nepal's territory will not be allowed to be used for anti-China
activities.
And behind much of the Indian rhetoric, in the words of the International
Crisis Group, "is a fear of China's quietly growing power". The party of the
Maoists considers itself closer to China, so do the other left-leaning parties,
who together obtained over 60% of the votes cast in the April election. And, as
the Crisis Group points out, all major parties are scared to offend China.
Undoubtedly, Nepal is in a volatile situation, and in a vulnerable position.
But to blame either of the neighbors for the current chaos and anarchy would be
a shameful act of the incumbent bunch of politicians trying to hide their
inability and selfishness. "It is unfortunate that we don't have leaders with
vision, willingness and ability to govern Nepal which has two of the world's
largest economies in its immediate neighborhood," observes former chief justice
Bishwanath Upadhayay, who headed the panel that drafted the 1990 constitution.
He is not sure if a new democratic constitution can be written without a
conducive atmosphere. That is why he has not taken oath as a member of the
Constituent Assembly, where he is one of the 26 persons nominated by the
government. He says he has no wish to join the assembly merely to be a
job-holder.
Dhruba Adhikary is a Kathmandu-based journalist.
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