Taliban win a fight - and settle scores
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - When several hundred Pakistani troops backed by paramilitary forces
on Friday launched an operation against militants in Bajaur Agency in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan,
they received a most unwelcome surprise.
News of the offensive, which proved to be the most bloody this year in
Pakistan, had been leaked to the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda militants by
sympathizers in the security forces, and the army walked into a literal hail of
bullets.
Contacts familiar with the militants told Asia Times Online that every hill had
observers as the first military convoys entered Bajaur - the main corridor
leading to the Afghan provinces of
Kunar, Nooristan, Kapisa and the capital Kabul - and they were quickly under
attack.
In just a few hours, 65 soldiers were killed, 25 were taken prisoner and scores
more were wounded. Under air cover, the soldiers retreated, leaving behind five
vehicles and a tank, which are now part of the arsenal of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda.
On Tuesday, the Pakistan Air Force, whose air power played a central role in
the Bajaur operation, was on the receiving end. Once again on the basis of
precise information, eight airmen were killed in a suicide attack near
Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).
Limited fighting continued on Wednesday. The government said that 200 militants
had been killed, but a Taliban spokesman confirmed only seven dead. The
remainder, he said, were civilians killed during aerial bombardments.
Unconfirmed reports said leading al-Qaeda military commander Abu Saeed al-Masri
had been killed. He is said to be number three in the group behind Ayman
al-Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden, and if indeed he is dead it would be a major
setback for al-Qaeda.
The fierce militant response against the army, which is under heavy pressure
from the United States to be more proactive, was under the unified command of
Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, whose base is in the South
Waziristan tribal area. The hardline Baitullah does not believe in "limited
war" - his goal is full-scale war across the country. Bajaur could be the
beginning of this.
Pakistani Taliban spokesman Moulvi Omar issued a statement claiming
responsibility for the Peshawar attack and warned of more across the country in
reaction to the Bajaur offensive.
However, the militants' current tactics are different from those of previous
years when they reacted within a few hours or days. Now, the militants spend
more time waiting for information on their "daunting foe", the Pakistani
security forces and the government, so they can decide on their targets and
cause maximum damage. Much of this information comes from informants in the
security forces.
In the broader picture, al-Qaeda decides when to switch on the attacks or
switch them off in their own version of war and peace. This is the new face of
the neo-Taliban - more radical and more strategic - raised on al-Qaeda
ideology.
These neo-Taliban don't forget, either.
On Wednesday morning, Haji Namdar, the chief of the "Vice and Virtue"
organization in Khyber Agency, a tribal region on the Afghan border, was gunned
down in his office by Baitullah's men.
Although Namdar supported the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, he was a
strategic asset for the Pakistani security agencies trying to wipe out
al-Qaeda-influenced radicals and the neo-Taliban.
In April, he sold out the Taliban after initially agreeing to help them target
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization supply lines passing through Khyber
Agency. (See Taliban
bitten by a snake in the grass Asia Times Online, April 26, 2008.)
Namdar had survived an earlier suicide attack in which about 30 people died.
Namdar's death leaves the Pakistani security agencies and the government with
only one "precious asset" - Haji Nazeer in South Waziristan. Other than him,
they have no choice but to deal with Baitullah's radical face.
Economic and political chaos
Apart from the Peshawar Valley, the whole Pashtun-dominated region of NWFP is
effectively under the control of the Taliban and their al-Qaeda allies. The
chaotic state of the economy plays into their hands as people become increasing
disgruntled.
Inflation is running at 25% a year, the Karachi stock exchange has lost 35% of
its value since April, there are frequent electricity shutdowns and foreign
exchange reserves have fallen from US$17 billion last year to $9 billion,
barely enough to cover imports for three months.
These economic woes are compounded by an ongoing political crisis which
al-Qaeda is already exploiting.
Zawahiri has issued an audio message critical of President Pervez Musharraf,
who is under pressure to resign or else face impeachment. A leading militant
from the Swat area, Muslim Khan, has issued a statement that anyone who
supports Musharraf during an impeachment process would become the Taliban's
enemy. Musharraf is the United States' point man in the South Asian theater of
the "war on terror".
In a similar manner, when a military junta recently ousted Mauritania's
president Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, al-Qaeda immediately called for a
jihad in the North African country to establish Islamic rule. As with Pakistan,
this is a bid by al-Qaeda to pitch itself as the only viable choice in Muslim
countries.
The Bajaur showdown plays into this scenario. The Pakistani military, as it has
every time in other operations in the tribal areas over the past few years,
will pull back. Prisoners will be swapped and a hollow ceasefire will be agreed
on, backed by cash inducements for the militants and more military aid for
Pakistan from the United States.
Battle will break out again. In the meanwhile, the Taliban will increase their
strength and boundaries, and al-Qaeda's ideology will draw in new recruits.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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