Militants shake off Pakistan's grip
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Behind closed doors in Washington, London and Islamabad a few months ago, the consensus was to initiate a strategic phase of "conflict escalation" in the region, even though it was acknowledged that the price for this would be a surge in militancy in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

This is what happened, and, given the popularity of the Taliban among Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan and Pakistan, peace treaties were then viewed as the best solution, provided the terms and conditions were set by the international and regional players and not by the Taliban.

This did not work, as militant activities have broken the will of

 

Pakistan's leaders, so much so that they are using back channels to sign new peace agreements, but this time on the Taliban's terms.

But the militants are obsessed with their own "conflict escalation" until their ultimate goal is reached, whether in the shape of Taliban rule or broader regional peace agreements.

The devastating suicide attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad at the weekend in which more than 80 people died is viewed from a different perspective in the Pashtun-dominated tribal areas, where militancy has a strong foothold.

Journalist Rahimullah Yousufzai, a renowned expert on Pashtun culture, tribalism and the Taliban, argues that just as Islamabad's elite, foreign diplomats and undercover international intelligence agents are devastated by the Marriott bombing, the tribals are equally incensed by the daily aerial bombardment of Bajaur Agency and Dara Adam Khel in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

The Pakistani security forces don't make any concessions for the holy Muslim month of Ramadan and its main rituals, such as the pre-dawn feast (sahur) and the evening breaking of the fast (Iftar).

The tribals believe that non-Pashtun Pakistanis don't care about the massacre of Pashtun tribes by the security forces or the large-scale displacement of people - over 400,000 have been displaced from Bajaur during recent operations there.

The upshot is that the writ of the state of Pakistan has been reduced to the offices of the chief minister and the governor's house in the capital of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Peshawar.

Information gathered by Asia Times Online through contacts in the Taliban suggests that over the past few months of military activities in the tribal areas, the Taliban have identified the main weakness of the Pakistani security forces in Bajaur - they cannot take control of land. Instead, they have resorted to aerial bombing, which allows the militants to easily take shelter in the maze of mountains that runs across the border into the Afghan province of Kunar.

If the Pakistani forces do try to establish land control, militants can quickly return to Bajaur and force them to retreat.

The Taliban's main regional commander, Qari Ziaur Rahman, has alone taken custody of over 100 Pakistani security personnel. As the number of prisoners soars, the conviction of the security forces to attack the militants weakens.

The situation further deteriorated this week when the Taliban's commander in Mohmand Agency, Abdul Wali, previously largely impartial in the recent conflict, joined hands with Rahman and sent hundreds of fresh guerrillas to attack the Pakistani security forces.

A senior Pakistani defense analyst admitted that despite the difficulties, the Bajaur operation was the only ray of hope for the security forces. If this battle is lost, Pakistan will not be able to stop the march of the Taliban towards the cosmopolitan centers of the country.

Already, the Taliban's success in Bajaur has emboldened them. They have made incursions into Peshawar and, loaded with sophisticated weaponry, they have forced the police to restrict themselves to their stations.

This enabled the Taliban on Monday to abduct Afghanistan's ambassador-designate to Islamabad from the upscale Hyatabad neighborhood of Peshawar, and this in broad daylight. Abdul Khaliq Farahi was apparently first taken to Khyber Agency and remains missing. It is likely he will be used as a Taliban bargaining chip in any negotiations with Kabul.

The Taliban have shown they will go to any lengths in their struggle, even if it means harming fellow Pakistani citizens, including Muslims.

On Monday, the Taliban tried unsuccessfully to hit the main oil depot of Peshawar. According to a militant who spoke to ATol, the aim was to wipe out Peshawar's power for at least 15 days, during which time the Taliban could launch attacks.

Four rockets were also fired at Peshawar's airport on Monday and again on Tuesday. If nothing else, these attacks have created something of a reign of terror in the provincial capital. This is likely to spill over to the outskirt districts of Shabqadar, Charsada, Matni, Dara Adam Khel and Kohat. For the past two weeks, a main trade artery - the Kohat tunnel - has been closed to traffic due to military operations in Dara Adam Khel.

One of the most significant developments has been in the strategic Khyber Agency, the main North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supply route into Afghanistan.

The majority population here has traditionally been of the anti-Taliban Sufi school of thought. A recent tribal council (jirga) decided to close down the activities and offices of all religious organizations in the agency. The only exception, the jirga agreed, would be the Taliban. It was mutually agreed that the Taliban would not disturb the peace in the area or intervene in local affairs, and the tribes would not get involved in the Taliban's activities.

On Sunday, the Taliban seized four containers belonging to NATO. According to militants who spoke to ATol, they were carrying food and water supplies.

Swat Valley continues to be in the hands of militants, despite intense military operations. On Tuesday, a suicide car bomb killed nine Pakistani soldiers at a security checkpoint in the northwest of the valley.

Taliban commander Abdul Wali has also declared war against Pakistani security forces in Mohmand Agency.

The North Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal areas are completely ruled by the Taliban. On Tuesday, militants shot down a US Predator drone in South Waziristan.

In sum, across NWFP, the only areas that remain outside the militants' grip are a few government buildings and military camps, and even these are under attack. This can safely be termed a mass Taliban-led tribal rebellion against Pakistan.

An added woe for the leaders in Islamabad is information acquired by the security agencies suggesting the growing strength of militant organizations in the largest province of Punjab. These groups could carry out attacks such as the one on the Marriott.

In response to this creeping militancy, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, while in New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting, is talking with US officials about creating a joint border force comprising American, Afghan and Pakistani troops to hunt down the Taliban.

At the same time, in Islamabad, the federal advisor to the Interior Ministry, the powerful Rehman Malik, recently contacted the Taliban leader in South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, and other Taliban commanders such as Faqir Muhammed to negotiate a ceasefire agreement.

The offers were turned down. This leaves Islamabad in a very awkward situation. It cannot afford another Marriott incident, let alone attacks in major towns and cities. It needs more breathing space, but the militants are not prepared to provide it, leaving conflict escalation the only remaining option.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

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