KARACHI - General David Petraeus, who took over last Friday as the new head of
United States Central Command (CENTCOM) with overall responsibility for the
wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has arrived in Pakistan with Assistant Secretary
of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher to push his plans
in the South Asian theater of the "war on terror".
This involves the dual task of government-led reconciliation with Taliban
insurgents in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the leveraging of diplomatic and
economic initiatives with the countries influential in the war.
Petraeus' arrival on Sunday coincided with two events. One was a US Predator
drone strike which killed 25 people, including
possibly an Arab commander, Abu Akash, in the North Waziristan tribal area in
Pakistan. At the same time, militants and Pakistan, on Islamabad's initiative,
agreed on a peace formula under which Pakistan has stopped military operations
in the tribal areas and the militants have assured they will not unleash a
"winter offensive" in Pakistan. (See
A long, hot winter for Pakistan Asia Times Online, October 11, 2008.)
Pakistan has already slowed operations in Bajaur Agency and shelved plans for
operations in North Waziristan. All the same, the militants welcomed the month
of November with unprecedented attacks, which, according to the militants, are
a part of a carrot-and-stick game.
On Friday, a suicide attack on a police office in Mardan, North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP), killed four policemen. These were followed by three more
suicide attacks at different locations and a rocket attack at Peshawar airport
in NWFP that killed several security personnel.
Tackling al-Qaeda
Petraeus is credited with saving the United States from defeat in Iraq through
his initiative to engage the indigenous tribal resistance especially the
Sunnis, and getting them to turn against foreigners, that is al-Qaeda.
If the same is planned for South Asia, it is sure to fail as al-Qaeda's
traditions in the region are different from those in Iraq: al-Qaeda was a new
phenomenon in Iraq, while it has been in South Asia for several decades.
After September 11, 2001, and the invasion of Afghanistan that year, al-Qaeda
became even closer to the local tribes who became a part of the Afghan
resistance.
After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, a large number of al-Qaeda and Arab
groups (not all Arab groups were al-Qaeda) based in Afghanistan went to Iraq,
leaving behind a small group of Arabs.
Most of them were trainers, like Iraqi Abu Akash, or ideologues like Abu Waleed
Ansari, a Jordanian-Palestinian. Neither Ansari nor Abu Akash was directly
linked with the hardcore of al-Qaeda. Ansari was more of cleric than a
commander and he gave sermons to youths in North Waziristan to fight against
foreign forces in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Abu Akash established a maaskar
(training center) in North Waziristan at which he prepared youths for guerrilla
battle.
Through this process, a new Arabic-speaking tribal Pashtun generation was
raised. Now, at a time when numerically al-Qaeda and Arab warriors in South
Asia are insignificant, this breed of tribal Pashtuns has become the vanguard
of al-Qaeda's cause.
One could call them the neo-Taliban, and in most instances they have taken over
the leadership of the Taliban. Veteran mujahideen leader Jalaluddin Haqqani was
once close to the Pakistani establishment and he had a pure tribal mindset. But
his sons Sirajuddin and Nasiruddin, who speak Arabic, lean towards Arabs and
their cause.
Qari Ziaur Rahman is another case in point in eastern Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Arabic-speaking commander of Pashtun ethnicity is closer to Arabs and there
is no chance of him siding with the establishment in either country.
There is no official word on whether Abu Akash has been killed, but even if he
is dead he will have left a strong legacy.
Abu Akash (or Abu Akasha as his comrades call him) is not a veteran of the
Afghan jihad against the Soviets in the 1980s as he is in his mid-30s. He is an
expert in explosives and guns and after arriving in North Waziristan he tapped
Uzbeks and Tajiks of Central Asian origin to act as trainers.
He also used his young trainees to control traffic in North Waziristan. This
was a simple drill but some local tribes did not like it and in 2007 he was
expelled to the Shawal region that spans the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. But
he returned within a few months and blended even further into tribal society,
so much so that he could speak the local dialects of Urdu and Pashtun and at
one point Pakistani intelligence reported that they suspected Abu Akash was
Punjabi, not Arab.
Abu Akash and his likes will make it very difficult for Petraeus to divide and
defeat the resistance, as in Iraq.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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