China fears India-Japan space alliance
By Peter J Brown
India and Japan's agreement in October to expand cooperation between the Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
(JAXA), in the field of disaster management, has the raised the ire of a China
fearful that the US is masterminding a powerful space alliance between its
allies in the region.
All of Asia wants to see improved regional disaster management capabilities,
but the growing ties between ISRO and JAXA come just as India and Japan are
devising an action plan to advance security cooperation.
"China is concerned about the general effort of the US during the Bush
Administration to form a Japanese-Indian alliance to contain
China," said Dr Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst and China project manager at
the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists.
"They are more concerned about what this implies about US intentions rather
than what it implies about the intentions of the Japanese or the Indians,
particularly as it concerns space."
Brian Weeden, a technical consultant at the Colorado-based Secure World
Foundation, hesitates to agree that India and Japan's efforts to pursue closer
ties in space are part of a deliberate US master plan for the region, but he
does not see the US taking any steps to discourage them.
"The US sees India as primarily a counterbalance to China in the region, but at
the same time it does not see India as a full ally in the same sense as Britain
or Japan. I do not think the US looks unfavorably on this relationship, but I
am certain it will be examining it very closely and if the US does have
concerns, they will be quietly expressed to the Japanese," said Weeden.
Whereas Japan benefits greatly from the steady deployment in the Pacific Ocean
of US AEGIS ballistic missile defense (BMD) technology - it will soon be aboard
all four of Japan's Kongo-class destroyers - this sea-based BMD system will
probably not appear soon on any of India's warships, for example.
Weedon also points to the most recent 'Red Flag' exercise at Nellis Air force
Base in Nevada. "The Russian-built Indian fighters participating had their
radars in test mode so as not to give away their full capabilities to the
Americans. Likewise, the US didn't let the F-22 participate for the same
reasons."
The agreement is a concern for China, as it would be for any nation when their
traditional regional adversaries talk about cooperation, adds Weedon. "Most
countries still see the national security angle of space as a unilateral effort
and are unlikely to collaborate in that area. They will, however collaborate in
scientific or civilian areas."
There is considerable turmoil in Japan concerning the future of JAXA and how
much money the Japanese government should be spending on it. The situation is
made more complicated by Japan's recently enacted Space Basic Law, which for
the first time permits Japan to consider deployment of national security space
assets, which the Japanese had denied themselves until now.
"The government of Japan, particularly the Ministry of Defense, is still
sorting this out," said Aerospace consultant Lance Gatling, head of Tokyo-based
Gatling Associates, which closely monitors JAXA and the Japanese space program.
Japan has been using its weather satellites to provide free weather data to
countries throughout Asia for many years without any hint of controversy, but
this is quite different from deploying a new generation of surveillance
satellites to monitor disasters.
Virtually all existing satellite-based multinational disaster management
initiatives such as the "International Charter, Space and Major Disasters"
depend upon the ability of the signatories to engage in the rapid tasking of
their respective surveillance satellites. In other words, quickly altering the
flight patterns of the surveillance satellites in question so they zoom right
over a disaster zone is essential to the success of the mission at hand.
"This could be seen by some as a sensitive undertaking with obvious dual use
possibilities which Japan will attempt to handle with great care. And that
degree of sensitivity clearly permeates anything that ISRO and JAXA have been
given the green light to develop in this instance, even though JAXA has no
national security mission," said Gatling.
When, in early November, the Japanese press revealed that Japan has begun to
explore the possible future launch of an early warning satellite which can
detect the launch of enemy ballistic missiles, according to a draft plan
obtained by The Yomiuri Shimbun, the joint declaration was not even mentioned.
Among other things, this draft plan promotes the use of rockets and satellites
for defense purposes and endorses the need to examine the feasibility of
deploying a new satellite which can perform BMD-oriented security and crisis
management or disaster monitoring roles simultaneously.
The draft plan is scheduled for a final review in late November, and while it
may not neatly address whatever ISRO and JAXA have elected to pursue, Beijing
will be hard pressed to dismiss what could easily become a convenient addendum
to the Joint Declaration.
India, on the other hand, simply wants to increase satellite surveillance of
all Chinese military activities, particularly along the Chinese border with
India.
On November 1, for example, the Times of India reported that during the most
recent Indian Army commanders' conference, "one of the main agenda items"
included a discussion of the need to dig tunnels in forward areas including
along the Chinese border with "fooling enemy satellites from gauging the exact
troop positions and their strength in forward areas" identified as one of the
key objectives.
"China has resorted to tunneling on a large-scale along the LAC [Line of Actual
Control] especially in the Tibetan Autonomous Region," one senior officer at
the conference told the Times.
Proponents of increased Japanese government budgetary support look to exploit
every opportunity to stress the commercial and strategic importance of the
Japanese space program, and in this case, China's manned spaceflight program -
not tunnels - serves an important purpose.
"The rapid advances in space by China - and India - clearly caught the
attention of the Japanese who saw themselves as the leader in space in the
region a decade ago," said Gatling.
Dr Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the Department of National Security Studies at
the US Naval War College, does not believe the Japan-India space relationship
is picking up steam. "The consensus-driven decision making process used in
Japan means that pretty much everything moves at a glacial pace," said
Johnson-Freese.
She prefers to take the language in the Joint Declaration at face value.
"Disaster management efforts in the Pacific Rim region have been under
discussion for a long time, and this is part of the culmination of those talks.
It is one of the few areas where everyone in the region agrees that concerted
efforts are required," said Johnson-Freese, adding that she has not heard of
any serious concerns from China over Japan-India working together on disaster
management.
Kulacki also recalls the tone and spirit of the proceedings of the
International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) conference in Beijing in
2006, where the Group issued a declaration on cooperation called the ILEWG
Beijing Declaration.
"All sides seemed cordial, well-acquainted and anxious to pursue joint
projects. I do not sense any tension among the space professionals of these
three countries, who understand and are anxious to reap the benefits of joint
efforts," said Kulacki.
Johnson-Freese views things a bit differently, and labels the three parties as
"cautiously prudent".
"They will pursue joint projects when it is win-win," said Johnson-Freese.
Here she adds weight, albeit indirectly, to the argument that India and Japan
are very much on the same page, and probably agree that a merger of their space
activities gradually over time may offers a distinct strategic edge.
Johnson-Freese and Kulacki also clearly disagree over China's leadership role
in the Asian space race.
"China is not anxious to be seen as a leader and does not see itself as a
leader. China feels it is far behind most advanced spacefaring nations," said
Kulacki.
"They are also focused on their own objectives and their own needs. While they
would welcome the opportunity to be a competitive commercial space player,
especially in the international launch services market where they have a strong
advantage, they are focused on longstanding goals first set back in the
mid-1980s and revised only marginally since then.”
"China very much wants to be seen as both the leader of space efforts in Asia,
and for developing nations. They are using their manned program to reap all the
prestige awards it renders - which are considerable, if only in perceptions
created - including that it is beating the US," said Johnson-Freese.
“By virtue of their success in manned space - and the worldwide attention that
it brings them - there is certainly the perception that China is the regional
technology leader. While that is a function more of political will than
technical capability, perception very quickly becomes the reality from which
people base opinions and actions.”
Interestingly, news of Japan's draft plan involving the possible launch of an
early warning satellite coincided with the arrival in Tokyo of Russia's Foreign
Minister, Sergey Lavrov. He warned Japan and the rest of Asia about the dangers
of the rampant missile technology proliferation now underway in the region and
an emerging "confrontational atmosphere" stemming from such things as Japan's
AEGIS BMD deployment.
Of course, Lavrov said nothing about Russia's important role in support of
South Korea's entry into the Asian space race or about how Russia has been a
major backer of the Indian aerospace sector. In fact, the Russian space agency
is actively engaged in ISRO's Chandrayaan-2 project, supplying ISRO with its
lunar lander and jointly developing a lunar rover.
China's recent announcement that it would provide Pakistan with a new
communications satellite early in the next decade - adding yet another space
asset to the fast-growing Asian "dual use" roster - no doubt provides India
with further justification for pursuing closer ties in space with Japan.
China, at the same time, must not enjoy the news that numerous NASA scientists
are apparently eager and poised to joint the ranks of ISRO, a timely shift in
highly specialized talent that came to light in the days immediately following
the successful launch of India's new moon probe, Chandrayaan-1.
"I doubt China is the only factor, but it is one factor in [any ongoing
India-Japan joint space activity]. Other factors could be desires to increase
regional relations and influence. We are seeing more and more cooperation in
space, sometimes along traditional relationships like US and Europe, and
sometimes along nontraditional ones like Japan and India," said Weedon.
The success of the International Space Station program, and the fact that
countries are looking for new ways to cope with the huge costs of operating in
space during this steep global economic downturn, are making international
cooperation a more attractive and more acceptable option, he said.
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine USA.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
