Page 2 of 2 Afghanistan abyss awaits Obama
By M K Bhadrakumar
one foreign policy priority for the Obama administration. Here too, a struggle
has commenced for influencing Obama's policy. Two Pentagon consultants - Ahmed
Rashid and Barnett Rubin - did some kite-flying recently. In an article in the
latest issue of Foreign Affairs magazine titled "From Great Game to Grand
Bargain", they argued that the US strategy should be to seek compromise with
insurgents while addressing regional rivalries and insecurities.
Their recommendation was to offer "political inclusion" to the insurgents "in
return for cooperation against al-Qaeda" and to launch a major diplomatic
initiative addressing the "vast array of regional and global issues that have
become intertwined with the
crisis". Furthermore, they suggested that a "contact group" of select countries
mandated by the UN Security Council must work to put an end to the
"increasingly destructive dynamics of the great game in the region". They
recommended that a "regional diplomatic initiative" ought to replace the
international presence under NATO.
Their buzzword is "regional security". Britain has also echoed it by coming up
with a parallel idea of regional security, whereby regional players such as
Pakistan, Iran, India, China and Russia along with the US and Britain will be
brought into a structure, a consultative mechanism, as "stakeholders". The
British ambassador in Afghanistan, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, visited Tehran a
fortnight ago to sound out the Iranians. He visited Delhi over the weekend, and
told the media, "Our strategy is of a politically-driven, security-led
counter-insurgency strategy and more coherent, sustained international support
for Afghanistan and its government. What we want to do, for good
counter-insurgency reasons, is to get our troops out of direct combat
operations. So it is Afghans doing the fighting, not foreign forces."
The Foreign Affairs article charters a breathtaking landscape that all but
ensures that Obama will lose his way and will never get anywhere near an Afghan
settlement in the four years ahead of his presidency. Britain, while setting
the tempo for Obama, focuses on itself as remaining a key player. But Sir
Sherard's play of words apart, the ground situation is grim for Obama.
On Tuesday, Germany's Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung said Berlin would
resist any US pressure to send troops to strife-ridden southern Afghanistan.
Spain openly called for changes to the Western strategy after the killing of
two Spanish soldiers in a suicide attack in the western city of Herat on
Sunday. Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos has been quoted as
saying, "The debate must not be about sending more troops, but about how to
carry out a political and military strategy that will put an end to the
situation of instability."
Canada has reiterated its decision to pull out its troops by 2011. In Britain,
according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday, 68% said British troops
should be taken out of Afghanistan by 2010. The head of the British armed
forces, Air marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, warned against Obama's idea of sending
more troops to Afghanistan, similar to the "surge" in Iraq in 2007. He told the
BBC, "Even if the situation demanded it, it cannot be just a one for one
transfer from Iraq to Afghanistan, we have to reduce that tempo … I am a little
nervous when people use the word 'surge' as if this were some sort of panacea."
Tehran has lost little time to rubbish Sir Sherard's proposal. At an
international conference on Afghanistan at Dushanbe on Tuesday, attended by a
senior US State Department official, the Iranian delegate ambassador Ali Ashar
Sherdoust said Western countries and mediators should leave the issue to the
Afghans and let them decide their fate. He stressed that Iran opposed the
continued presence of foreign forces and their interference in the internal
affairs of Afghanistan. Sherdoust ridiculed the "countries thousands of
kilometers away" from Afghanistan which are insisting on running the country's
affairs while "ignoring the interests" of Afghanistan's neighbors.
The British game plan is partly at least to spike the parallel initiative by
the SCO to hold a special conference on Afghanistan. The US and Britain have
been resisting repeated attempts by the SCO and the Collective Security
Organization to play a role in Afghanistan. They have so far ensured that
NATO's role has remained exclusive. The ideas floated by the Foreign Affairs
article as well as by Sir Sherard will more or less keep the initiative over
the Afghan problem in the US-British clasp, which has been the Bush
administration's bottom line and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's
objective.
The million dollar question is: Will Obama also play the great game in
Afghanistan? Or is he capable of showing the compassion to let go that hapless
country and allow it to wander towards a rediscovery of its traditional modes
of life?
It is obvious he has to walk through a veritable minefield and reconcile
various elements. Indeed, an intra-Afghan dialogue is needed and reconciliation
with the Taliban becomes a central issue in such a dialogue. For that to
happen, a regional climate needs to be prepared, which primarily involves
engaging Pakistan, Russia and Iran and also addressing larger concerns in their
relations with the US. Fortunately, Obama possesses the immense moral stature
needed to convene a regional summit on Afghanistan.
Least of all, it may become necessary at some point to spell out a timeline on
the troop withdrawal. Every challenge also offers an opportunity. The upcoming
presidential election in Afghanistan offers an opportunity for Obama to resist
the temptation to impose another US proxy in Kabul like President Hamid Karzai.
Let Afghan people genuinely choose their leader. Let a new president emerge out
of the complex deal-making that is part of the Afghan way of life. It is a
difficult decision for Obama to take, but it needs to be taken. It will signify
the beginning of a US "withdrawal".
As a recent commentary in the Chinese People's Daily noted, "Since it is
absolutely not easy to carry on the war, then, the 'peace' solution poses a
wise option … War and peace are horns of a dilemma in Afghanistan at present,
and this has once again exposed the helplessness of Western nations in a
predicament." The recent Chinese commentaries seem to underscore that the Obama
administration runs the real risk of a quagmire in Afghanistan unless a
political solution is quickly found.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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