Taliban, US wrestle for the upper hand By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - On the face of it, there is no basic change in the situation on the
ground in the war theater in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The United States-led
war machine is the same, the pattern of the Taliban's attacks is the same and
Islamabad is still an ally of the US.
Nevertheless, the players are already raising the level of their struggle in an
effort to win the war when battle resumes in full come next spring.
The Taliban this year decided to target the supply lines of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) as it passed through
Pakistan - as much as 90% of NATO's needs take this route, with no viable
alternative.
This has had some success, but over the past 10 days attacks on Kabul-bound
conveys in the Khyber Agency have reached unprecedented levels. Thirteen
containers full of arms and ammunition, military vehicles and food were looted
by the Taliban, forcing an entire NATO convoy from the southern port city of
Karachi to stop in Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province.
Under an emergency arrangement, safe warehouses were hired for the supply
trucks and containers to park> It was not until Monday, under extraordinary
government-enabled security measures, that the convoy was able to resume its
journey.
The attacks have been so incessant that Asia Times Online has learned that 530
containers loaded with armored personnel vehicles, military trucks, Humvees,
arms and ammunition have not yet been delivered. They were sent four months ago
from Jabal-i-Ali in the United Arab Emirates to Karachi. Clearly, if this
continues, NATO's war effort will be severely compromised.
This is not the only area in which the Taliban have successfully expanded the
scope of their activities. In an important development, they are now active in
and around Peshawar, where they are engaging the Pakistani security forces.
In recent days they have also conducted a high-profile abduction of an Iranian
diplomat and attacked foreign journalists and government functionaries.
They are also killing pro-government tribal chiefs in Bajaur and Mohamand
Agencies, while all the time attracting more and more recruits. The aim is to
establish such a presence that Pakistan will be forced to retreat and leave the
Taliban alone to wage their war against NATO in neighboring Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, in NATO headquarters in Kabul and Brussels it has been realized that
the level of the Taliban's control in Afghanistan is such that they are inching
towards a serious escalation of the violence which could create serious turmoil
right in the heart of Kabul.
The provinces of Wardak, Logar, Kapisa and Parwan, all relatively close to
Kabul, are either partially controlled by the Taliban or the Taliban have a
sufficiently significant presence to make them no-go areas for anti-Taliban
forces.
In this scenario, especially over concerns about its supply lines, NATO is
reluctant to entrust Pakistan with tackling the problem. Although relations
between the two countries are good; even low-profile Pakistani support for the
Taliban could turn the tables in Afghanistan.
NATO will therefore lead all actions, whether in Afghanistan or Pakistan. This
is not too popular in Pakistan. Last week, the NATO commander in Afghanistan,
General David McKiernan, visited Islamabad to brief parliamentarians, but
several of them, including those of the dominant Pakistan People's Party and
Federal Minister Raza Rabbani, refused to attend.
They called the meeting a serious breach of Pakistan's sovereignty as no
military official of another country is supposed to approach parliamentarians
without the Foreign Office's mediation.
McKiernan wanted to take Pakistani lawmakers into his confidence over a new
NATO initiative to increase the scope of Operation Lion Heart, which involves
US strikes on insurgent targets in the Kunar region of Afghanistan and a
full-scale Pakistani campaign in the region of Bajaur Agency. In the latter
sphere, air attacks would be bolstered by land assaults.
Asia Times Online has learned that Qari Ziaur Rahman, the chief commander of
Kunar and Bajaur, has admitted that the escalation in Kunar has already caused
temporary problems, such as restricting militants from traveling from Kunar to
aid their colleagues in Bajaur just across the border. Nevertheless, the
militants claim to have defeated the Pakistan military in Bajaur and plan to
release a celebratory video to this effect in the near future.
Pakistan army chief General Parvez Ashfaq Kiani plans to visit Brussels to
discuss the exact modus operandi of the new phase of Operation Lion Heart.
High-level meetings between US intelligence and Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) have already been held at different levels to devise plans
to cripple the support systems of the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Pakistan.
Two prominent names came under discussion at these meetings: retired
Lieutenant-General Hamid Gul and a former ISI official, retired Squadron Leader
Khalid Khawaja.
Gul, a former head of the ISI, is suspected of providing political and moral
support to the Taliban-led resistance in Afghanistan. Last year, former premier
Benazir Bhutto named him as a suspect for the October 18 attack on her life in
Karachi. She was subsequently assassinated in December.
Khawaja was the first person in the country to assist the displaced families of
Arab fighters who fled to Pakistan after the US invasion of Afghanistan in
2001. He fought their cases in court, arranged temporary housing for them and
assisted them in departing to their countries. Khawaja is active in the cause
of missing people (those detained without trial for years) and wants to
register cases against the former chief of army staff and president, General
Pervez Musharraf, and his military aides for abuses allegedly committed during
their eight years in power.
Tightening the noose around people such as Gul and Khawaja and the like is one
way to cut off support for the Taliban.
The battle has begun in earnest in preparation for next year's showdown.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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