Cornered Tigers look to India By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is in dire straits.
Territory under its control is shrinking by the day and the Sri Lankan armed
forces are knocking on the door of its political headquarters, Kilinochchi.
Things have never looked this bad for the LTTE. Two years ago it was in control
of the entire Northern and Eastern provinces. Then territory began slipping out
of its grip in the east. It was driven out of the Eastern province in July
2007. And in the past year-and-a-half, it has been losing ground in Northern
province as well, having suffered serious military reverses. If the army wrests
control of
Kilinochchi - which it says it will capture soon - the LTTE will be boxed into
the jungles of Mullaitivu.
On November 15, the LTTE lost Pooneryn, a strip of land in the northwest of the
island that runs parallel to the neck of the Jaffna Peninsula. This is a huge
loss for the LTTE. With the fall of Pooneryn to the government, it has lost
access to the island’s west coast. This means that its access to the southern
Indian state of Tamil Nadu through the west coast of Sri Lanka has been cut
off. It is to Tamil Nadu that injured LTTE fighters are taken and it is from
here that the LTTE gets much of its supplies.
With the capture of Pooneryn, the Sri Lankan government finally has full
control over its western seaboard. What’s more, for the first time since
November 1993 (when Pooneryn fell into the Tigers’ hands) the government
controls a land route into the Jaffna Peninsula. Previously, supplies for
civilians and the armed forces in the peninsula have been ferried in by air or
sea. These can now be taken through the land route that the capture of Pooneryn
has opened up. Repair of the road from Pooneryn into the peninsula has already
begun.
Two days after the capture of Pooneryn, the Sri Lankan army took another
strategic town, Mankulam, on the arterial A9 highway in the Wanni. On November
20, the armed forces overran the LTTE’s first Forward Defense Line at
Muhamalai. This is the area separating the government-controlled Jaffna
Peninsula from the LTTE-dominated Mullaitivu and Kilinochchci. And then on
Monday, Kokavil, a town that has been under LTTE control for the past 28 years,
fell to the armed forces.
While the Sri Lankan army has made major gains in recent weeks, its advance
towards Kilinochchi has not been easy. Heavy rains have slowed its operations
and the LTTE has fought pitched battles against the advancing troops.
The loss of Pooneryn and other strategic areas could not have come at a worse
time for the LTTE, as these setbacks came in the run-up to Great Heroes Week.
For the past 19 years, the LTTE has been observing Great Heroes Week between
November 21 and 27, when it pays homage to its fighters who have fallen on the
battlefield. The "martyrs" are glorified, their sacrifices are remembered and
their families honored. Then on the last day - Great Heroes Day - the LTTE
chief delivers his annual address, where he makes a "policy statement" and
highlights the LTTE's achievements over the past year.
This year Prabhakaran's speech made little reference to achievements. But he
indicated clearly that, military reverses notwithstanding, he is not about to
throw in the towel. "Whatever challenges confront us, whatever contingencies we
encounter, whatever forces stand on our path, we will still continue with our
struggle for the freedom of the Tamil people … we will continue with our
struggle till alien Sinhala occupation of our land is removed," he declared.
Tough talk? Or a picture of what lies ahead? A look at the way the LTTE has
conducted itself over the past 25 years, skillfully maneuvering itself out of
the tightest of spots would indicate that it will survive the recent military
reverses. Its fighters are now engaged in pitched battles and it is likely to
put in all its resources to hold Kilinochchi town. And it will continue to
bleed the Sri Lankan forces with guerrilla strikes. More suicide attacks can be
expected in the coming months.
That the LTTE has not yet given up is evident from the way it has been
mobilizing support in Tamil Nadu over the past few months. Parties and Tamil
nationalist organizations have been organizing massive rallies and
demonstrations across the state to put pressure on the Indian government to end
its considerable defense and other cooperation with the Sri Lankan government.
With the LTTE cornered in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu, its supporters in Tamil
Nadu have been pushing for a ceasefire.
Recently, the Tamil Nadu assembly passed a resolution calling for an immediate
ceasefire between the government forces and the LTTE, the return of the armed
forces to their original positions and commencement of peace talks. The LTTE
strategy is that public and political pressure in Tamil Nadu will push the
Dravida Munetra Kazhagam, the party in power in Tamil Nadu, to convince its
allies in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government in Delhi
to get Colombo to call for a ceasefire.
This strategy hasn't quite worked out the way the LTTE would like it to. India
has not withdrawn its defense cooperation with Colombo, neither has it pressed
the latter to call for a ceasefire. The furthest Indian officials have gone is
to warn Colombo on avoiding civilian casualties. Besides, India is providing
humanitarian support through the government to the hundreds of thousands of
Tamil civilians who are trapped in the war zone.
That Prabhakaran is desperately seeking India's support at this critical
juncture is evident from his appeals to the "Indian superpower" in his Great
Heroes Day speech. Drawing attention to the "great changes taking place in
India" - he was referring to the resurgence of political support for the LTTE
in Tamil Nadu - the LTTE chief called on Indian leaders "to raise their voice
firmly in favor of the LTTE's struggle for a Tamil Eelam state, and to take
appropriate and positive measures to remove the ban which remains an impediment
to an amicable relationship between India and our movement."
But Prabhakaran's pleas are likely to fall on deaf ears in Delhi. The Indian
government recently extended the ban on the LTTE which officials in Delhi have
repeatedly said will remain in force. Prabhakaran and his intelligence chief
Pottu Amman are wanted in India for their role in the assassination of former
Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. It is unlikely that, as long as they are
around, India will lift the ban on the organization. "Nothing has changed in
India's perception of the LTTE as a terrorist organization," an Indian Home
Ministry official told Asia Times Online.
In fact, hours before Prabhakaran delivered his Great Heroes Day speech, Mumbai
came under attack from terrorists leaving over 215 dead and 300 injured.
Indians are angry with the government for having failed to protect them from
terrorists. At a time when the UPA government is facing public wrath for
failing to act against terrorists, surely the government cannot be seen to be
lenient with the LTTE, much less bailing it out of a tight corner by calling
for a ceasefire. India has accused "elements in Pakistan" for the attacks and
is considering stern measures against Pakistan to express its ire. At such a
time, India is highly unlikely to make things easier for the LTTE.
Besides, in the aftermath of the audacious attacks in Mumbai the government is
considering steps to tighten security, including beefing up the coast guard to
prevent terrorists from entering the country, whether to carry out attacks or
for treatment of injured cadres.
Cornered in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu, the LTTE is likely to find the going
will get tougher in India as well.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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