Page 1 of 2 India, Russia regain elan of friendship
By M K Bhadrakumar
The visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to New Delhi last week turned
out to be an occasion for the Indian government to fundamentally reassess the
strategic significance of the traditional India-Russia partnership. No doubt,
the visit took place at a turning point in contemporary history and politics
against the backdrop of massive shifts in the international system.
Medvedev arrived in India in the immediate aftermath of the horrific terrorist
strikes on Mumbai. The regional security situation - especially Afghanistan -
naturally figured prominently in the agenda of the visit.
The joint declaration signed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
and Medvedev after extensive talks in New Delhi reflects that the two sides
have taken serious pains to understand each other's vital concerns and have
endeavored to go more than half the distance to accommodate them. They also
made a conscious effort to expand their common ground in the international
system. After a considerable lapse of time, Russian-Indian relationship seems
to be on the move.
Things which were hanging fire in the general drift of Russian-India relations
in recent years are being attended to. Principal among them is the tendentious
issue of the escalation of costs for the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral
Gorshkov, which India has contracted to buy. On the eve of Medvedev's
visit, the Indian cabinet took the decision to agree to discuss an additional
US$2.2 billion payment as demanded by Russia. The government also has approved
the acquisition of 80 medium-lift Mi-17 helicopters from Russia worth $1.3
billion.
Reaching out
Medvedev also came with a brief to discuss the leasing of a nuclear submarine
to the Indian navy. India-Russia military cooperation is back in full swing
with a host of projects in the pipeline. Russia has consolidated its place as
the number one arms supplier for India. But the icing on the cake is the
proposed cooperation in the nuclear and space fields. Agreements were signed on
Russia constructing four new nuclear power plants in India and on assisting a
manned Indian space flight. Russia has offered a new power plant AES-2006,
which incorporates a third generation WER-1200 reactor of 1170MW. Russia has
also agreed to supply uranium worth $700 million to meet India's acute
shortage.
Manmohan described the agreements as signifying a "new milestone in the history
of cooperation with Russia". He added, "It is a relationship that has withstood
the test of time." He acknowledged that India's dialogue with Russia has
"intensified considerably". Significantly, he said the terrorist attacks on
Mumbai "present a threat to pluralistic societies" [read Russia] and that
"there is much Russia and India can do to promote global peace".
Clearly, the two countries have rediscovered the old elan of their friendship.
They are reaching out to each other once again in a world that is in
transition. Apart from the volatility in the international situation, both
India and Russia sense that change is in the air in the United States' global
policies, but neither would wager the extent and directions of the change. Both
are acutely conscious of the inexorable decline in the US influence in world
politics and the urgent need to adjust to the emergent realities of
multipolarity.
At the same time, the US remains the single-most important interlocutor for
both India and Russia for the foreseeable future. Neither would see their
partnership as directed against the US. Even as Medvedev arrived in Delhi, a
senior Indian official was making contacts with key advisors to president-elect
Barack Obama to brief them on Delhi's perspectives and policies. On its part,
Moscow is also in an expectant mood about the Obama presidency, though tempered
with cautious optimism.
The balancing of Russian-Indian mutual interests evident in the joint
declaration brings out these delicate impulses as they touch on many areas. The
declaration is devoid of any anti-US rhetoric as such but it is very obvious
that the two countries are overhauling their partnership in tune with a
"post-American century". India has identified itself with the Russian position
on reforming the international economic and financial systems so that it adapts
to "new realities" and promotes a "more just world economic order based on the
principles of multipolarity, rule of law, equality, mutual respect and common
responsibility".
Russia seeks Sino-Indian rapport
India also finds itself emphasizing the "growing and more focused interaction"
within the framework of the trilateral format among Russia, China and India,
despite its lukewarm attitude in the recent past towards the process which
annoys Washington as a needless endeavor on India's part.
Significantly, the joint declaration says that the trilateral format "acquires
importance in the framework of multilateral dialogue mechanisms, substantially
contributes to strengthening newly emerging multipolarity and promotes
collective leadership of world’s leading states". This is a carefully drafted
formulation that speaks of an intention to inject new dynamism into the format.
Conceivably, Moscow has prevailed on Delhi to reassess the significance of the
format in the volatile international situation. Russia had been viewing with
growing despondency its inability to foster Sino-Indian rapport.
Equally, the Russian side seems to have urged India to play a more active role
and "more constructive participation and contribution to" the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Similarly, India has shed its carefully cultivated ambivalence and come out in
open, unqualified support of the Russian position on the situation in the
Caucasus region. It is a signal victory of the Kremlin to have finally got
India on board, as this is a most sensitive issue which occupies the first
circle of Russian foreign policy and is, in fact, a leitmotif of
Russia's relations with the US in the coming period. The joint declaration
stresses, "India supports the important role of the Russian Federation in
promoting peace and cooperation in the Caucasian region".
The key expression is "Caucasian" - anything from the Caucasus region. India's
support is open-ended and unequivocal.
Again, India has voiced its support for Russia's keenness to join the
Asia-Europe meeting and East Asia summit mechanisms, while Russia has
reiterated its support for India's claim to permanent membership in an expanded
United Nations Security Council.
From the Indian perspective, no doubt, it is an invaluable asset that Moscow
has voiced its total "support and solidarity" with New Delhi on the terrorist
attacks in Mumbai. The Russian gesture by far exceeds the words of sympathy
offered by Washington. Of course, Moscow is not facing Washington's dilemma,
which is one of having to carefully balance between New Delhi and Islamabad.
Simply put, what the Mumbai attacks have badly exposed is that much as
terrorism is a shared concern for the US and India, their priorities at this
juncture greatly differ.
India would expect Washington to come down like a ton of bricks on Islamabad to
pressure the latter to take seriously the Indian allegation that the terrorist
strike in Mumbai was perpetrated by elements in Pakistan with possible links to
that country's security establishment. Evidently, Washington is in no position
to fulfill the Indian expectations. Its number one priority is the war in
Afghanistan and Pakistan's continued cooperation in the war. Washington cannot
afford a "distracted" Pakistan, and its main political and diplomatic
challenge, therefore, is to get Pakistan to remain "focused" on the war effort
in the Afghan-Pakistan tribal areas.
New Delhi senses that as time goes by, it will find this paradigm frustrating.
This is not a new paradigm, either. But Delhi's options are limited, though the
government is under immense pressure not only to act but also to be seen
actively acting. The delicate strategic balance between India and Pakistan
virtually forecloses even a "limited" war option for either nuclear power. The
only alternative open to India is to reassess its diplomatic options. But on
this score, New Delhi needs to do some new thinking.
Which is where Delhi's partnership with Moscow comes into play. The strategic
community in New Delhi would realize to their great discomfiture that the
entire package of post-Cold War assumptions underlying the US-India strategic
partnership just do not add up in the present situation for India to cope with
the formidable task of pressuring Pakistan. Their broad assumption that the US
would take care of India's "Pakistan problem" while India concentrated on its
tryst with destiny as a great power or "balancer" in the international system
is turning out to be a grotesque misjudgment by the Indian strategic gurus. So,
indeed, their assumptions regarding "absolute security".
The Russian-Indian joint declaration suggests that New Delhi is swiftly
adapting to the reality that it must diversify the sinews of cooperation and
revitalize its diverse partnerships with countries on the basis of shared
concerns and commonality of interests rather than pursue a foreign policy whose
prime objective has been to harmonize Indian regional policies with the US's.
This is most tellingly evident on the Joint Declaration's paragraph devoted to
Afghanistan.
Realignment on Afghanistan
Ironically, New Delhi seems to have decided that if it is Afghan war that
causes so much discomfiture for Washington to come
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
