India's options on Pakistan still open
By Richard M Bennett
Pakistan can rightly be described as a failing state. Its internal unity has
dissolved into open warfare in significant parts of the country and its
relations with India, its heavily armed and nuclear capable neighbor, are in
tatters.
Even the patience of its long suffering ally, the United States is now wearing
decidedly thin.
Pakistan has a militaristic society that has grown tired of its generals
playing politics and instead placed in charge a civilian government that soon
appeared to be virtually incapable of
tackling head-on the main issues threatening to tear apart the fabric of the
nation:
The growing influence of Islamic extremists in FATA (Federally Administered
Tribal Areas), Pakistan-administered Kashmir and many of the northern cities in
particular.
The devious role played by the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) agency with
what appears to be evidence that it is still supporting terrorist activity in
Afghanistan, Indian-controlled Kashmir and most significantly within India
itself.
The degree to which extreme Islamic beliefs have been wholeheartedly accepted
within large parts of the regular army and the junior ranks of the officer
corps in particular.
There can be little doubt that besides shoring up the world's shattered economy
and dealing with a potentially nuclear armed Iran, high on the list of
priorities for the incoming Barack Obama administration will be the fear of a
meltdown in Pakistan some time in 2009.
Obama's choice of Hillary Clinton as his secretary of state is a highly
significant move in relation to South Asia and has been broadly welcomed by
many observers in New Delhi.
Clinton developed a close working relationship with both India and the
Indian-American community back home during the eight years her husband Bill
Clinton served as president.
It is unlikely that the new US administration will or would want to continue to
excuse Pakistan's wanton unwillingness to at least attempt to deal with the
rising tide of Islamic extremism threatening both the integrity of the nation
and the stability of an already troubled region.
Pakistan's options
In response to the growing chorus of international criticism Pakistan has
hinted at a variety of responses, but looked at carefully these would appear to
be largely empty gestures made by an increasingly panicked and confused
government in Islamabad.
The Pakistan army presently deploys four regular infantry divisions (7th, 9th,
14th and 23rd) in the FATA, the vital region that borders Afghanistan.
Islamabad quickly made it known that in response to any saber-rattling by New
Delhi, it would be forced to move these units back to their old defensive
positions on the border with India.
This in theory would expose the Western forces inside Afghanistan and their
long supply route which sees some 350 trucks carrying over 7,000 tons through
Pakistan every day to even greater danger from Islamic insurgents. The recent
attack that destroyed over 100 US and NATO supply vehicles on Peshawar's outer
ring road merely served to highlight this threat.
However, as many seasoned observers quickly pointed out, the Pakistan army with
a severely restricted logistic capability would not be able to achieve this
massive redeployment quickly or effectively.
Indeed, as many of the army units currently deployed in the FATA have shown
little or no interest in actually combating the local insurgency, the
withdrawal of one or all of these divisions would probably not have a
significant effect on the overall border security situation.
Recently some Pakistan officials have felt it necessary to quietly remind New
Delhi - and the world in general - that it is a nuclear power. However, there
must still be some doubt as to how many usable nuclear devices Pakistan
actually has. Some estimates have been as low as just two 20 kiloton warheads.
Whatever the correct figure may be, Washington's studied indifference to
Islamabad's implied nuclear warning goes some considerable way to confirming
reports that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is very closely monitored, if not
actually controlled in some way by the United States.
It is quite possible that any attempt to move these weapons, let alone deploy
them would result in a swift US response and their total destruction.
No change yet
Pakistan is also once again going through the pantomime performance of publicly
arresting a few leading members of the Islamic extremist groups that
proliferate inside their borders.
Short of these prisoners now being handed over to the Indian authorities along
with many others listed as terrorists, New Delhi and an increasingly impatient
Washington are likely to remain largely unimpressed.
There has still been no serious attempt by the Pakistan authorities to disarm
the militants, close down their training camps or dismantle the organizational
structure that provides both new recruits and financial support.
The Lashkar-e-Taiba and other such militant groups with a long track record of
carrying out attacks in both Kashmir and India remain very largely untouched
and free to continue planning the next terrorist outrage.
The ISI apparently continues to covertly arm, support and train Islamic
militants, and some observers have claimed that they may even play a
significant role in planning and directing attacks such as those on Mumbai.
Despite the replacement of Lieutenant General Nadeem Taj as head of the ISI on
October 1 by the reportedly more moderate Lieutenant General Ahmed Shujaa
Pasha, seen by some as an attempt to placate Washington, little of substance
has altered and the ISI seems as firmly wedded to its pro-Taliban, pro-Kashmir,
anti-Indian stance as before.
The Pakistan army also appears content to remain on its path toward
radicalization, providing yet more training and - according to some sources –
playing a large role in protecting and maintaining the militant infrastructure.
However, this level of semi-official Pakistan involvement with national and
international terrorism may finally bring significant problems for the
government in Islamabad.
India's options
India, though usually hamstrung by governments that appear to suffer from some
form of strange rictus that prevents anything more than a studied inaction and
overwhelming willingness to compromise, may now be forced to at least consider
a genuine response.
If the present Congress party government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is
removed in the upcoming elections, its replacement in the form of the
nationalistic Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would probably be far more
likely to launch a military strike at Pakistan.
The BJP has long accused Congress of being insufficiently aggressive in
combating terrorism and now argues that the Mumbai attack was in part a result
of this failure.
If the killing of over 170 civilians, police and military in Mumbai proves to
be India's September 11, 2001, then it will not be long before New Delhi now
finally accepts that one of the most important ways to protect its citizens is
to be viewed as willing to retaliate against those who openly sponsor, house,
arm and train terrorists.
This could be by way of limited air strikes and commando raids on the scores of
Islamic terrorist camps and arms dumps most likely within Pakistan-administered
Kashmir, initially.
Some sources have even suggested that the outline of a suitable plan was shown
to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently. Rice is reported to have
quietly commented that while the United States was strongly opposed to a
full-scale war between India and Pakistan, it might not be totally averse to
some form of limited counter-terror operations.
Risk of greater confrontation
However, a lack of serious and successful crackdowns on Islamic extremist
groups within Pakistan by the government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani,
or the repetition of major terrorist acts against Indian targets, could lead to
a far wider and more significant confrontation.
Under those circumstances New Delhi may have no alternative but to launch major
punitive military operations across the border into Pakistan itself.
It is possible that a clearly exasperated United States may even sanction this
as a much-needed salutary lesson for Islamabad that it must take responsibility
for the actions of its citizens and for any extremist groups based safely
within its national borders.
A military assault is not, of course, the only means of applying pressure on
Pakistan. Other punitive measures have been aired ranging from an Indian naval
blockade of Karachi and the coast to the withdrawal of large amounts of vital
financial aid used to shore up Pakistan's crumbling economy.
Pakistan is rightfully a proud country, but has little to be genuinely proud
about in its current situation. It is a nation that has been constantly let
down by a succession of weak civilian governments and heavy-handed military
dictatorships.
It now faces economic meltdown, a chaotic political situation, widespread
extremism and the growing disaffection of significant numbers of the middle
class, civil service and the military.
Some experienced observers have openly suggested that tanks and armored
vehicles may once again be seen on the streets of Pakistan's cities as the
military takes back power from yet another failed civilian administration.
Normally this might have been greeted by a resigned and cautious welcome in
Washington. However, this time it might just be that militant Islamic elements
within the officer corps are staging a coup.
The real fear then is of an unstable Pakistan sinking into chaos and anarchy
and vast amounts of territory, weapons and perhaps nuclear materials falling
under the control of Islamic extremists linked to al-Qaeda.
This would without a doubt be the United States and India's worst nightmare.
Indeed it might turn out to be the last act before decisive foreign military
operations to neutralize Pakistan began in earnest.
Pakistan is potentially a powerful ally in the "war on terror" and a firm
friend of the West. Sadly it has chosen to play the devious game of running
with the fox and hunting with the hounds for far too long.
Islamabad's continued deceptions are having a caustic effect on its
international relations and dangerously increasing tension with India.
Having lived by the sword for so long, Pakistan now risks dying by it as well.
Copyright 2008 Richard M Bennett, intelligence analyst - AFI Research.
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