KARACHI - Two major events are likely to mark the beginning of 2009 and decide
the new rules of war and peace in the region. In Pakistan, the foremost is
curtailing the powerful military dominated intelligence agency, the
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and the second is the unveiling of a new
strategy in Afghanistan.
These two steps have emerged after months of high-level consultations between
all the regional players, including the Afghan, Pakistani and Indian political
leadership and the Western military establishment. American military officials
have gone the
extra mile to set up an incentive package to make these plans successful.
The process of clipping the wings of the ISI, elements of which have sympathies
with the Taliban in Afghanistan and militants, could not take place during the
rule of former president General Pervez Musharraf, who was succeeded by a
civilian government early in the year after nine years of rule.
Moves were made to place the ISI under the civilian authority of the Ministry
of Interior, but these were blocked by the military. Still, a few weeks ago the
ISI's political cell was shut down, a development announced by Prime Minister
Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani.
The next move is to appoint a civilian as director general of the ISI with the
aim of eventually reducing the agency to an intelligence wing of the Ministry
of Interior, from the grand secret service it was that earned international
fame during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s in support of the
mujahideen resistance.
The plan has been agreed to by the military leadership, which earlier showed
its concern on the question of the handling the external security issues if the
ISI worked under the Ministry of Interior. Apparently, the brass were convinced
by senior US officials who had a long list of complaints against the ISI for
its lack of cooperation in the "war on terror".
The director general of the ISI and top officials, including the chief of the
external wing and the chief of the internal security wing, were fired in
September on the US's recommendation, but still there was the feeling in
Western capitals that the ISI's structure was too complex for it to be
"reformed" by the sacking of a few senior officials.
The Mumbai attack on November 26, in which militants linked to Pakistan killed
nearly 200 people, further fueled the debate. Eventually, a middle-road
approach was adopted by the West in which direct confrontation with the
Pakistan army, the main patron of the ISI, was avoided due to its deep links in
Afghanistan. As a sweetener, the military was offered better military hardware
and help with Pakistan's sinking economy.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund approved a 23-month US$7.6 billion
bailout program for Pakistan. "American military officials played a crucial
role in this approval," commented the executive director of the Center for
Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Dr Farrukh Saleem, to Asia Times Online.
"The purpose is to keep pace with Pakistan and its armed forces to ensure
maximum cooperation in the 'war on terror'," he added.
An exclusive group called the 909 Intelligence Group has been formed which is
working directly under the military command to look exclusively at issues of
cross-border intelligence. The group has already taken over the ISI's external
operations.
The US was spurred into action by the Mumbai attack to get Pakistan to deal
with military sponsored militias and the ISI; the last thing it wanted was a
war between Pakistan and India that would derail its plans for a surge next
year in Afghanistan against the Taliban.
At one stage the war appeared so unavoidable that the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) piled up additional supplies in Afghanistan due to fears of
an interruption to its supply lines in the event of an Indian naval blockage of
the Arabian Sea. The Indian government gave a 30-day deadline for Pakistan to
take action against those responsible for the Mumbai attack or else "all
options would be open".
According to strategic sources who spoke to Asia Times Online, India activated
three military bases - Rajasthan, Gujarat and Ladakh - but due to extraordinary
American intervention and Pakistan's increased cooperation, such as over the
ISI, the clouds of war cleared.
Nevertheless, India and the Americans understand that Pakistan's cooperation
can only go to a certain level as militants still call the shots in many
places, especially in the tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan. Thus
Pakistan is being given a little leeway over organizations such as the Jamaatut
Dawa, which has been named by the United Nations as a front for a terror
organization linked to the Mumbai attack. Jamaatut, which is involved in
extensive charity work, will be allowed to continue even though it is
officially outlawed.
With all-out war between India and Pakistan now highly unlikely, there is still
the possibility of limited surgical strikes by Israeli Predator drones from
Indian soil against militant camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Israel is
present in India due to the killing of some of its citizens in the Mumbai
attack and is helping with investigations.
Meanwhile, NATO is looking to protect its supply lines and might have found
assistance from Iran, which would reduce its dependence on Pakistan, where
supply lines have come under heavy attack.
Non-military supplies, including food and oil, could go from the Iranian port
of Chabahar overland to Afghanistan, where a new road in the west of the
country has been completed despite an unprecedented number of attacks by the
Taliban.
The main challenge, however, is to clear the ring roads up to the capital
Kabul, which are at present controlled by the Taliban. This will be crucial in
deciding which way the Afghan war theater goes when Pakistani jihadi militias
and the Pakistani Taliban are unleashed.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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