Page 1 of 2 South Asia gets a makeover By M K Bhadrakumar
Indians would have remembered John Milton's lines as they stepped into the New
Year, "Was I deceived, or did a sable cloud/Turn forth her silver lining on the
night?" A hopeful, comforting prospect suddenly appeared from nowhere in the
midst of the darkening South Asian security scenario.
Within the space of a week, it appeared - on three templates, unconnected, yet
of a kind. The elections to the provincial assembly in the Indian state of
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh and the
Sri Lankan government forces' capture of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) stronghold of Kilinochi each in its own way will impact on South Asian
security.
All three taken together, terrorism, which took giant leaps forward in South
Asia last year, has fallen back by a step or two.
The successful conduct of the elections in J&K itself has come as a great
relief to New Delhi. The president of the ruling Congress Party, Sonia Gandhi,
spoke for the national feeling when she said it really did not matter which
political party won the election, but the important thing was that the
democratic process gained traction in J&K. Indeed, over 60% of the
electorate took part in the election, ignoring the separatists' call for
boycott.
Kashmiris choose the ballot box
The high voter turnout underlines that politics has become competitive - and
participatory. The profound significance of this cannot be underestimated. The
camp of diehard secessionists has been marginalized almost as a residual force.
There are incipient signs that some among the religious extremist and
separatist elements might have probed party politics for the first time in a
significant way. In any bitterly fought bloody insurgency, the endgame comes
when the irreconcilable elements show signs of willingness to try out the
discourse of politics. No doubt, the signs have appeared in the Kashmir Valley.
Another distinguishing feature was that the Kashmir Valley, which is
Muslim-majority, handed in a "secular" mandate by electing two regional parties
- the National Conference and the People's Democratic Party - which are capable
of a broad secular outlook, having been participants in coalition politics at
the federal level at one time or another. Clearly, good and responsive
governance has become the leitmotif of J&K politics.
On the whole, therefore, the J&K election augurs well for India. In a free
and fair election, a representative government is assuming power in the
insurgency ridden state, which enjoys legitimacy. How did this happen?
It is obvious that there is a sense of fatigue among the people of J&K
after such bloody violence through almost a quarter century. Thus, the
militants are becoming marginalized. The common people prioritize their
day-to-day concerns to be development and the rule of law, and an end to the
brutalization of life at the hands of the militants and the security forces.
Finally, there is a groundswell of skepticism among the people - for a variety
of factors - in counting on Pakistan to win azadi (freedom) from Indian
rule.
Having said that, the Pakistan factor which is not easily fathomable or spoken
about still remains crucial. Indeed, it may hold the key to what lies ahead. At
any rate, Pakistan has incrementally stepped back from fomenting violence in
J&K in the past four-year period. The ceasefire on the Line of Control
dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan has also held. Equally, despite the
cacophony over the terrorist attack on Mumbai in November, no political party
or the mainstream media has tried to score propaganda points. The exceptionally
high voter turnout in the election has even been commended. When the dust
settles, these new stirrings might get reinforced in India-Pakistan political
and diplomatic exchanges. But any substantial shift in dynamics will have to
wait until a new government takes over in New Delhi as national elections are
due this year.
All this may seem as if history has ended in the Kashmir Valley. Far from it.
The faultlines remain very much there. The alienation of the Kashmiri people is
palpable. Anyone with a sense of history will only view the prospect of another
National Conference-led government with a certain sense of disquiet. But, then,
its leader Omar Abdullah, who is assuming office as chief minister on Monday,
is a new face and promises a clean break from past notoriously corrupt and
inefficient governance.
The question is to what extent New Delhi will remain supportive of Omar. He has
voiced creative ideas about reconciliation and a settlement within a broader
India-Pakistan context. He had a high-profile visit to Pakistan last year
during which then-president General Pervez Musharraf went out of the way to
warmly receive him and show attention as a key figure in any Kashmir
settlement.
However, there are vested interests in both India and Pakistan who may create
hiccups. The imponderables in India-Pakistan relations may play into their
hands. Which is why the denouement of the present crisis in India's bilateral
relations with Pakistan is of utmost importance. But even an audacious
soothsayer will hesitate to predict at this point.
Bangladesh averts 'Talibanization'
In sheer drama, however, the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, which put
an end to two-year army-backed rule, must take the cake. While the J&K
election did not hold major surprises as such, the results of the Bangladesh
elections have come as a political tsunami. Political space in Bangladesh was
supposed to have been neatly carved into two halves, which gave the military a
handle to manipulate from behind the scenes.
Thus, New Delhi is plainly delighted that the electoral alliance led by the
Awami League, which has been traditionally friendly towards India, scored a
stunning victory by securing 263 seats in the 299-seat parliament. The mandate
is widely regarded as signifying the people's desire for democratic governance
and a clean, corruption-free government.
But there are strong undercurrents that hold enormous significance for South
Asian security. The results have shown that the people have given a near-fatal
blow to the Islamic political parties. The militant Jamaat-e-Islami, which was
considered to be a powerful force in Bangladeshi politics, has been literally
trounced, securing only two seats, with its chief Motiur Rahman Nizami being
defeated. Plainly put, this is an overwhelming mandate against religious
fundamentalism. The people have strongly reacted to the perception of a
creeping "Talibanization" in Bangladesh. This assertion of the secular temper
will come as a great relief to New Delhi.
Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina has been a victim of the wrath of the
Islamists, being staunchly secular. A wily politician, she will realize that a
great opportunity has come her way to exorcise the extremist elements from
Bangladesh's body polity. The best thing to happen, of course, will be if a
self-cleansing movement within the Islamist ranks surfaces in the coming period
in response to the people's verdict, and Hasina were to become a rallying
point. Hasina no doubt holds a strong hand. Her opponents tried to garner votes
with their campaign to "save Islam", whereas she promised to counter militancy
and religious extremism and establish a liberal democratic society. The
Bangladeshi electorate, with a voter turnout exceeding 70%, has left no one in
doubt what their choice is.
India's has a troubled relationship with Bangladesh. It has been at its best
during the last stint of the Awami League in power during 1996-2001. The list
of pending bilateral issues between the countries is long, involving issues of
trade, transit, sharing of waters, disputed border, etc. But from New Delhi's
perspective, the imperatives of security are currently the number one priority.
Several separatist groups waging armed insurgency in India's volatile
northeastern region use Bangladeshi territory as sanctuaries. More important,
Indian security agencies allege that Bangladesh has become a staging post for
terrorists trained in Pakistan. There is strong suspicion that elements in
Bangladesh are often active participants in the terrorist attacks within India.
New Delhi's main expectation at the present juncture will be that Hasina's
government denies "strategic depth" to the terrorists and insurgent groups.
Warmly greeting Hasina on her election victory, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh invited her to pay an early visit to New Delhi. Hasina has called for the
creation of a regional task force for combined action against terrorism.
Hasina's promise to extinguish terrorism and militancy has gone down well in
New Delhi, but there is also the recognition that this is easier said than done
as the roots of the militancy run deep in Bangladesh and a long period of
political consolidation lies ahead.
Lankan lurch towards peace
Unlike in J&K and in Bangladesh, it has been nature in its tooth and claw
in the Sri Lankan ethnic conflict, but the end result is nonetheless a boon for
South Asian security. The capture of Kilinochi by the Sri Lankan forces last
Friday is indeed a turning point in the fortunes of the separatist Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The organization has suffered similar reverses in
the past and has staged comebacks against seemingly formidable odds, but this
time there is a qualitative difference. It most certainly marks the end of the
LTTE as a conventional military power, though some may interpret that the
organization has made a tactical retreat from its headquarters of Kilinochi
after inflicting heavy damage on the advancing Sri Lankan army.
The fact is the LTTE has lost its cadre strength; it is unable to access
financial resources or indulge in fund-raising activities due
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