BANGALORE - The New Year has been far from happy for the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE). On January 2, the LTTE lost its "administrative capital",
Kilinochchi, to the Sri Lankan armed forces. With the fall of Kilinochchi, the
Tigers have lost their long-standing image of being militarily invincible and
are now cornered in the jungles of Mullaitivu.
The loss of Kilinochchi is a huge blow to the LTTE. However, it might be too
early to write the obituary of the rebels. Within hours of their loss of
Kilinochchi, the Tigers struck back with their legendary ferocity. A suspected
LTTE suicide bomber struck the air force headquarters in the Sri Lankan
capital, Colombo, killing three airmen. A day later, a bomb blast in a busy
commercial
area of Colombo left three injured. More such attacks in Colombo and other
cities are expected in the coming weeks.
With Kilinochchi in their pockets, the armed forces are now advancing on
Elephant Pass, a strategic land bridge linking the mainland to the Jaffna
Peninsula. Some media reports say that the army has already captured portions
of the causeway, which has been under LTTE control since 2000. Its loss would
allow the armed forces to link the Jaffna Peninsula with the mainland along the
A9 road. Previously, the government has had to send supplies and troops to the
peninsula by air or sea. The fall of Elephant Pass would be yet another blow
for the beleaguered Tigers.
Until Friday, it was the LTTE's flag - a roaring tiger against a red background
- that flew over Kilinochchi. Situated 350 kilometers north of Colombo,
Kilinochchi was the LTTE's de facto capital, the town where the Tigers had
established all the trappings of a "Tamil Eelam state" - courts, police, a tax
collection apparatus and even a bank. It was in its Peace Secretariat at
Kilinochchi that the Tigers received diplomats and journalists after the
ceasefire in 2002.
Kilinochchi has changed hands several times. The LTTE took control of the town
when the Sri Lankan army withdrew its garrison here following the departure of
the Indian Peacekeeping Forces (IPKF). The army gained control over it in
September 1996, only to lose it to the LTTE two years later. The LTTE has held
Kilinochchi for the past 10 years, but that changed on Friday when the Sri
Lankan army marched in.
The Sri Lankan flag is flying today over Kilinochchi, but it waves over a ghost
town. The only signs of life in Kilinochchi are stray dogs. Journalists who
have visited Kilinochchi say that the LTTE left the city in ruins before
withdrawing.
"Asbestos roofs, doors, windows and all conceivable fittings of every house and
establishment in the town had been ripped apart and carted away. The civil and
administrative apparatus had been razed to ground. The city's 40-foot-long main
water tank was reduced to pieces with powerful explosives. The wires which
supplied power had been slashed across the city and through the 8-km length of
the town not many electric polls were seen," wrote B Muralidhar Reddy, The
Hindu's correspondent in Colombo.
Of greater concern than ruined Kilinochchi is the fate of its 100,000
residents. But for some 30 remaining civilians, there is no trace its
population. While it is likely that they fled in anticipation of the fighting
between the armed forces and the LTTE for control of the town, the possibility
that the Tigers would have forcibly taken them to Mullaitivu cannot be ruled
out.
In 1995, when the LTTE lost Jaffna it took around 350,000 residents into the
Vanni region in a bid to show the world that the Tamil people wanted to remain
under LTTE rule. Thousands returned to Jaffna in the months that followed. If
Kilinochchi's residents have been taken to the Mullaitivu jungles, it is
possible that the LTTE will use them as human shields to defend its last
bastion.
The Sri Lankan army chief, Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka, has said that
about 1,700 to 1,900 Tiger fighters remain. Since the fall of Kilinochchi,
there are holed up in an area of around 40 square kilometers in the Mullaitivu
district. "We will be able to see the end of these remaining terrorists within
this year," he said. "It will not take one year."
Noted Sri Lankan defense analyst Iqbal Athas cites "well-informed intelligence
sources" who put the LTTE's strength at "anything between 10,000 and 12,000.
This is said to include 'policemen' and civilians trained in combat". The LTTE
is far from finished as a fighting force. The battle for Mullaitivu can be
expected to be far bloodier than anything to date.
In the past, the LTTE has recovered from huge setbacks to deal severe blows on
the armed forces. In 1996, six months after it lost Jaffna Peninsula to the
armed forces, the LTTE struck back to capture an important army base at
Mullaitivu.
Military astuteness and skilful maneuvering have helped the LTTE crawl out of
tight situations. On at least two occasions it has escaped from the brink of
defeat.
In May-June 1987, the LTTE was boxed into the Vadamarachchi region, when
India's "humanitarian intervention" gave it a fresh lease of life. Then in
1989-90, when the Tigers were on the run under pressure from the IPKF, it was
the Sri Lankan government that jumped in to bail them out. On both occasions,
the Tigers emerged stronger.
Will the badly wounded LTTE receive a similar lease on life now? It does seem
unlikely. In the 1980s, relations between the Indian and Sri Lankan government
were troubled. That has now changed. Unprecedented military cooperation is
going on between the two. For all the noise emanating from Tamil Nadu state
calling for a ceasefire in Sri Lanka, the Indian government has not yet
pressured its Lankan counterpart much on this score.
Internationally, too, the LTTE's position has changed remarkably. In the 1980s,
it was the Sri Lankan government that was in the doghouse and the LTTE had
considerable support overseas. That has changed since the assassination of
former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi by a Tiger suicide bomber in 1991.
Its string of suicide bombings has earned it the terrorist tag in several
countries, including India, the United States, the United Kingdom and the
European Union. But for its support among the economically powerful Tamil
diaspora, the LTTE has few supporters in the international community today.
There are reports suggesting that the government is considering banning the
LTTE again. This will rule out the possibility of negotiations. Sri Lankan
President Mahinda Rajapakse has been exercising the military option alone in
dealing with the LTTE. His government has refused to see that it is only a
political settlement that will end the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. Energized
by the military victories of his armed forces, he is likely to continue to
pander to Sinhalese hardliners and persist with the war against the LTTE. The
problem with this strategy is that thousands of Tamil civilians are getting
killed.
The Sri Lankan armed forces are already on their way to Mullaitivu. The "big
prize" they will be eyeing is LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran, who is
believed to be holed up there in superbly fortified underground bunkers. The
question Sri Lankans are debating now is not whether the Tiger supremo will be
captured but how - dead or alive. The latter seems unlikely as he wears a
suicide capsule around his neck like all Tigers do and in all likelihood will
swallow it to avoid capture. India's Congress Party has already demanded his
extradition to face trial for masterminding Rajiv Gandhi's killing.
Aerial bombing of Mullaitivu is on. This will be intensified in the coming days
as the armed forces close in. The elimination of Prabhakaran in one of these
raids cannot be ruled out.
The political and military decline of the LTTE over the past few years has been
dramatic. It was its writ that ran through all of the northern and eastern
provinces until 2005, when the territorial losses began. By July 2006, it was
ejected from the last of its strongholds in the east. Then it began losing
territory in the north as well. Today, the ground held by the Tigers is a
fraction of what it once was.
The Sri Lankan armed forces must be credited for the LTTE's decline. But if
today the LTTE is a shadow of its former self, it is because of the exit in
2004 of "Colonel Karuna", the LTTE's eastern commander. It was that event that
set off the hemorrhaging of the LTTE that continues today. It was a Tamil, and
a high-ranking Tiger as well, who should be credited for the decline of the
LTTE.
Will it be a Tamil again who will eliminate Prabhakaran? The possibility of one
of his deputies rising against him cannot be ruled out.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
