It's a tight poll race in India - you bet
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It is said that a peep into India's huge satta (illegal
gambling) market provides an indication of the nation's pulse.
Now, with general elections expected in April or May, the satta market
is gearing up for some big betting in an industry already estimated to earn
many billions of dollars every year.
From the usual cricket satta, the buzz now is about party positions and
the next prime minister, given the emerging era of coalition politics and
incumbent Manmohan Singh's ill health, which makes him unlikely to stand for
another term. Seventy-seven-year-old Manmohan underwent heart bypass surgery
this week.
As a satta operator told Asia Times Online, apart from the usual
pegs such as the single-largest party and the number of seats for regional
outfits, the biggest bets will be on the next premier.
The names that are currently hot include opposition Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) leader Lal Krishna Advani, the Gandhi siblings Rahul and Priyanka, the
BJP's Rajnath Singh, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, Uttar Pradesh chief
minister Mayawati, Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, Gujarat chief
minister Narender Modi, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home
Minister P Chidambaram and former premier Deve Gowda.
The field is unusually wide. As a satta operator commented, "Manmohan's
heart surgery has really opened up the political arena and heated the
situation. Many new names, such as Pawar, Mukherjee and Chidambaram, that were
not being considered for the odds [bets] are now in the picture.''
Although it too early for actual odds to have been set, a few favorites are
emerging. A BJP-led government means Advani would be premier. Meanwhile,
Chidambaram is the front-runner should Manmohan be unavailable and his Congress
party gets to form a government. The "third front" could be a toss-up between
Maharashtra state's strongmen Pawar and Mayawati, perhaps backed by the left
parties. Mayawati is expected to do well in the north Indian state of Uttar
Pradesh that returns a sizeable 80 seats to the 543-seat Lower House of
parliament, the Lok Sabha.
Although Rahul Gandhi - son of Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi - has been
spoken about a bit, he is not being considered the top Congress candidate for
prime minister (as far as the betting odds go) as the feeling is that his
mother wants him to gain more experience - he is 39. Chidambaram is seen as
somebody more likely to fill Manmohan's slot, especially as he has a a clean
image.
Although satta is banned, it remains one of the most organized gaming
forums in India, with millions (some say billions) of dollars changing hands
every year.
According to police assessments, illegal betting on sport alone amounts to well
over US$5 billion annually. Some police officials say the yearly volume could
be as high as $20 billion, depending on the state of the economy, especially
the stock exchange and real-estate prices, which can generate massive windfall
gains for potential punters.
Usually, satta is at its busiest during cricket matches, when bets are
placed on every aspect of the game and betting volumes during key one-day
international matches (as opposed to the five-day ones), and which involve
traditional rivals India and Pakistan, sometimes exceed US$500 million.
Another favorite betting subject is the officially announced arrival date of
the first rains of the monsoon season in India, or elsewhere.
The betting gets dirty
Bookmakers are known to have approached cricketers and bribed them to fix
matches to suit the odds of major gamers.
Last year, reports suggested that powerful betting syndicates tried to
influence a crucial vote of confidence against the government over the
India-United States nuclear deal on July 22, amid allegations of huge amounts
of money changing hands to buy fringe voters in the Lok Sabha.
There were indications to show that some independent members of parliament and
smaller regional parties from the provinces of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar
Pradesh were approached by syndicates to support or vote against the
government, depending on the favored odds of the big players.
While big money for horse-trading among parliamentarians is usual in the Indian
political firmament, it was the first time there was serious talk that bookies
could be directly involved in determining the political future of the country.
(In the end, the government survived the vote and the nuclear deal was
approved.)
In recent years, the betting process has turned high-tech and global with the
help of computers, mobile telephones and the Internet, with rich non-resident
Indians and top underworld dons heavily involved in the trade.
Although the Federal Reserve Bank of India has blocked credit-card payments on
websites it believes are fronts for gambling, many illegal Internet forums
continue to be operated by prominent bookies.
Punters set up an account with these sites and instruct them to make bets on
their behalf for a fee. Illegal money laundering channels (referred to as as hawala
locally) are also used.
With mobile phones and e-mails under threat of being monitored by the police,
some operators offer big clients "free home delivery" services using young boys
as runners.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist. He can be reached
at sidsri@yahoo.com)
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