Pakistan adds to US's Afghan woes
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - Despite the threat of arrest, Pakistani lawyers and activists on
Thursday began a "long march" from the port city of Karachi to the capital
Islamabad in an attempt to force the government to reinstate judges sacked in
2007.
In just a few weeks, the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan will begin
another leg of its to-date eight-year-old long march to oust foreign forces
from the country.
The tumult in Pakistan, which is increasingly loosening President Asif Ali
Zardari's grip on power, and the next round of fighting in Afghanistan -
expected to be the fiercest yet - are inextricably linked and are fast
spiraling out of control.
On Wednesday, hundreds of lawyers and opposition figures were
arrested, and the same fate could befall the marchers. Orders have also been
issued for the detention of Nawaz Sharif, head of the opposition Pakistan
Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party and his brother Shabhaz Sharif, former chief
minister of Punjab province.
The marchers want Zardari to honor his promise to reinstate the judges who were
sacked by former military ruler president General Pervez Musharraf, including
Supreme Court chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.
In these tense political times, Zardari has little time to cope with the "war
on terror".
Ready for a fight
Ahead of the resumption of battle in Afghanistan now that the weather is
warmer, the Taliban have a virtual siege all around the capital Kabul. They
have significant control in the vital districts of Wardak, Logar, Parwan and
Kapisa.
A second strategic ring to reinforce this siege comprises the provinces of
Kunar, Nooristan and Ghazni. The four vital entry and exit routes for the
Taliban's supply lines - Nimroz, Herat, Nangarhar and Kandahar - are also
heavily manned by the militants.
In addition, after striking peace deals with the Pakistani security forces, the
newly formed United Front of Taliban in the Pakistani tribal areas is ready to
pump at least 15,000 to 20,000 fresh fighters into Afghanistan. These are
expected to start crossing the rugged - and unmanned - border in April.
United States President Barack Obama has promised an additional 17,000 US
forces for Afghanistan, in addition to the 38,000 already on the ground, as
well as greater numbers for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO),
whose forces now tally about 55,000.
Even as the numbers of the combatants increase, the US is exploring alternative
ways to deal with the problem. Unlike the George W Bush administration's war
doctrine of hitting Pakistan's tribal areas with Predator drones to take out
key militant leaders, Washington is attempting mediation for peace.
United States Vice President Joe Biden, speaking at NATO headquarters in
Brussels on Tuesday, claimed that at least 70% of the Taliban's guerrillas in
Afghanistan were mercenaries and could be persuaded to lay down their arms.
This follows on the US stepping up its calls for outreach to "moderate"
elements of the insurgency.
"Five percent of the Taliban is incorrigible, not susceptible to anything other
than being defeated," Biden said. "Another 25% or so are not quite sure, in my
view, of the intensity of their commitment to the insurgency. Roughly 70% are
involved because of the money."
In a weekend New York Times interview, Obama floated the idea of engaging with
non-radical members of the insurgency, as Afghanistan heads toward August 20
elections that will test its ability to govern itself.
However, it appears that Washington has already missed the boat. The reason is
the all-time high domination of al-Qaeda-influenced militants - the neo-Taliban
- who are not willing to make any deal short of the withdrawal of foreign
occupation forces and the restoration of the Taliban regime.
Despite the killing of a large number of important al-Qaeda commanders, these
hardliners have a strong presence among the Pakistan militants allied with the
three main commanders - Mullah Bradar, Sirajuddin Haqqani and Anwarul Haq
Mujahid. These three have pledged their allegiance to Taliban leader Mullah
Omar, who has transformed the Taliban into an ultra-conservative force compared
to a few years ago when the Taliban were a Pashtun tribal movement.
Interestingly, Washington earlier rejected a similar proposal made by the
British Foreign and Commonwealth Office which described 80% of the Taliban as
reconcilable and 20% as not so. On the basis of this theory, the British
Embassy and the United Nations supported a move to start negotiations with the
Taliban in 2007. They sent one UN and one European Union official to Helmand
province to hold talks with the Taliban commander there.
Under American pressure, the Afghan government expelled the officers and
relations between the US and Britain were tense for a few months. So much so
that the appointment of Lord Paddy Ashdown as the UN's special representative
for Afghanistan was opposed by the Afghan government under American pressure.
In 2001, before the US invasion of Afghanistan and the ouster of the Taliban,
then-Pakistani president Musharraf advised Washington that there were two kinds
of Taliban. The one group was militant, the other moderate. He pleaded to
engage the moderates, but the Americans said Pakistan was too sympathetic
towards the Taliban and rejected the proposal.
After the defeat of the Taliban, Musharraf met president George W Bush and
reportedly pointed out that the US was making a blunder by focussing all of its
operations on Kabul and leaving the rest of the country to be tamed by the air
force.
Musharraf pointed out that Afghanistan had eight power centers - Herat,
Kandahar, Nangarhar, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunar and Nooristan, Paktia and Paktika,
Khost and Pansher. He suggested that if Bush wanted to consolidate American
control, he needed to immediately negotiate with the various warlords in those
regions and strike separate deals.
The advice was ignored and the US made deals all over Afghanistan only with
commanders associated with the Shura-e-Nazar. This council was formed by the
late Ahmad Shah Massoud of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance that was made up
of mostly non-Pashtun groups.
The result was that the powerful commanders associated with the Hezb-e-Islami
Afghanistan led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and those who were allied with the
Taliban were overlooked and then melted into the Taliban-led insurgency.
A good example of this is the most powerful commander in the Kunar Valley, Haji
Kashmir Khan. He welcomed the defeat of the Taliban in 2001 and went to Kabul
along with his loyalist commanders to greet Hamid Karzai, the new president.
However, being a close aide of Hekmatyar, he was not given any positions in
Kunar - these went to rival commanders associated with the Shura-e-Nazar. Khan
returned disgruntled to his sanctuaries in the mountains and to this day he is
Hekmatyar's main protector. Hekmatyar has regrouped the scattered command of
the Hezbe-e-Islami and they have carried out several successful operations and
form an important part of the insurgency.
In addition, over the years a new generation of fighters has taken over command
in many areas. They are ultra-conservative and make a mockery of Biden's claim
that 70% of the Taliban could be bought off.
Pakistan's political quagmire
Mian Raza Rabbani, the leader of the House in the senate and a top member of
the lead party in the ruling coalition, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), this
week resigned. He was apparently miffed after a close friend and a new entry in
the PPP, Farooq Naek, was nominated as the party's candidate for the position
of chairman of the senate.
This has been interpreted as the first major sign of dissent against the
leadership of Zardari, who has already developed a series of differences with
Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, another senior leader of the PPP.
This inter-party unrest could not come at a worse time, given the troubles on
the streets with anti-government elements and the rampant militancy in the
tribal areas. In effect, all state operations are crippled, including
Pakistan's commitment to the "war on terror". The gridlock in Islamabad
directly affects neighboring Afghanistan as all containment strategies against
the Taliban, directly and indirectly, have to be routed through Pakistan.
The military, due to its extreme unpopularity during the eight-year Musharraf
era that ended in 2007, is unlikely to be in any position for "adventurism",
such as a coup.
All the same, General Headquarters in Rawalpindi has activated its forces and
informed the authorities in Islamabad that it will directly supervise security
in Islamabad. This is the first time security has been taken from the Ministry
of Interior.
Zardari is in a difficult spot over the reinstatement of the judges, especially
ex-chief justice Chaudhry. In an American-brokered deal with Musharraf, Zardari
was given a presidential pardon for all corruption cases that were pending
against him, allowing him to take political office. Were Chaudhry to return, he
would in all likelihood challenge the presidential order.
American officials are now talking to opposition leader Sharif, Aitazaz Ehsan,
the leader of the lawyers' movement, as well as Chaudhry, with a view to the
possible ouster of Zardari, who only took office last September.
On Thursday, US envoy Richard Holbrooke called on Gillani at the National
Assembly and spoke to him for 15 minutes. According to sources who spoke to
Asia Times Online, he expressed concern over the political turmoil and urged
the premier to show restraint. Earlier, US ambassador to Pakistan Anne Peterson
met with Sharif.
The US still wants a government comprising secular and liberal political
parties to support the "war on terror" and the military surge against the
Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. With first pick Zardari
looking more and more like a loser, a change of horses in mid-stream beckons,
but such maneuvers in volatile Pakistan are never easy.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
