Chinese interests caught in drone threat
By Syed Fazl-e-Haider
QUETTA, Pakistan - The reported United States plan to use Predator drone
aircraft to attack targets in Pakistan's southwestern province of Balochistan
may affect activity there by the Chinese, who have focused most of their
investment in the country in that area, notably around the seaport of Gwadar,
according to local analysts.
United States President Barack Obama and his top aides are reported to be
considering expanding covert operations against Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders to
Balochistan, particularly in and around the provincial capital of Quetta.
Taliban leader Mullah Omar is rumored to be based in the province, something
denied last week by Balochistan chief minister Mohammad Aslam
Raisanit. The US operations could include strikes by remote-controlled
aircraft, or drones. To date, these unmanned craft have concentrated their
efforts on the tribal areas that border Afghanistan.
US drones have carried out more than 30 drone strikes since early 2008. The
strikes have killed about 300 people, including several mid-level al-Qaeda
members, according to a tally of reports from Pakistani officials and residents
of border regions, according to Reuters.
While Gwadar seaport, just 624 nautical kilometers east of the Strait of
Hormuz, gateway to the Persian Gulf, lies about 1,000 kilometers from Quetta,
the project has already been delayed due to insurgent activity by rebels
hostile to the central government. The possibility of using America's Central
Intelligence Agency-operated drones in the province, the country's most
economically backward area, may further destabilize security there and create a
severe domestic backlash.
Projected improved transport links between Gwadar and Quetta and a planned oil
pipeline linking the port to China's western region could also be threatened if
drone attacks increase the level of local unrest.
The Chinese are developing Gwadar to serve as a strategic base to spread
Beijing's influence in oil-rich Middle East and Central Asia. The mineral-rich
province has also attracted Chinese miners and oil companies.
Firms working in Balochistan include Tianjin Zhongbei Harbor Engineering
Supervision Corporation of China, China Harbor Engineering Company Group,
Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC) and its subsidiary, MRDL and
Chinese petroleum outfit, the Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting (BGP).
So far, China has been the biggest investor in developing Gwadar. The two-phase
program of port construction is being supervised by Tianjin Zhongbei Harbor
Engineering, with a total estimated cost $1.6 billion. China has so far
contributed about $198 million, while Pakistan has allocated $50 million.
Elsewhere in the city, China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC) is involved in
building an international airport at a cost of $70 million.
An important feature of the city's development and strategic importance is a
$12.5 billion oil refinery being built by China's Great United Petroleum
Holdings Company. The China-funded refinery will have an annual refining
capacity of refine 21 million tonnes of oil.
China and Pakistan are also working on a plan to lay a trans-Himalayan pipeline
to carry Middle Eastern crude from Gwadar to the remote western area of China,
running alongside the Karakoram highway.
Development of the Gwadar port project has already been delayed over security
concerns. In May 2004, three Chinese engineers were killed by terrorists and in
the same month the city's airport was attacked by rockets.
Inland, Chinese company MCC acquired the 18 billion-rupee (US$223 million)
Saindak copper and gold project on a 10-year lease in September 2002. It has
been operated by MRDL, with an initial investment of $26 million, since August
2003. Exports from Saindak started the next year.
Under a March 2002 memorandum of understanding, state-owned MCC also agreed to
invest $74 million to exploit and develop lead and zinc deposits, estimated at
over 14 million tonnes, at the Duddar Lead and Zinc Project, northeast of
Gwadar. The project got underway in April 2005.
Zhuzhou Smelter, China's second-largest zinc producer by capacity, plans to
import 50,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate and 20,000 tons of lead a year from
Duddar. The company owns less than 40% of the Duddar mine but plans to take its
entire output.
The Chinese are also engaged in petroleum exploration in Balochistan. BGP was
awarded a $1 million contract in 2001 to survey an area in Dera Bugti, in the
province's heartland. The survey was suspended soon afterwards for security
reasons before being resumed the following year.
Sparsely populated Balochistan has a population of only 7.5 million people, yet
occupies 44% of the Pakistan's total area. It is re-emerging as a front line
for the US military campaign in Afghanistan, with which it shares a 1,100
kilometer northern border, after playing an important role in the post-1979
US-backed Afghan jihad against occupying Soviet Union forces.
Some analysts also believe that the $5 billion cash lifeline recently proposed
by Washington for Pakistan, along with $1.5 billion annual assistance over the
next five years, to avert an imminent economic meltdown and destabilization,
will go to waste if the US expands its air strike targets to the impoverished
province.
Syed Fazl-e-Haider, sfazlehaider05@yahoo.com, is a Quetta-based
development analyst in Pakistan. He is the author of six books, including
The Economic Development of Balochistan, published in May 2004.
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