KARACHI - The al-Qaeda-led insurgency reached Pakistan's capital Islamabad on
Saturday when a suicide bomber killed eight paramilitary police in an attack on
a security base. The next day, militants proved through an attack on a Shi'ite
mosque in which 26 people died in Chakwal, 90 kilometers south of Islamabad,
that this was not an isolated operation.
Very much like Taliban-led insurgents have surrounded the Afghan capital Kabul,
militants have stepped up their operations around Islamabad and its twin city,
Rawalpindi, the military headquarters.
In telephone calls to the media, a militant claimed the attacks were part of a
"campaign against infidels" and he promised two more operations a week in the
country if the United States did not
stop Predator drone missile strikes on Pakistani territory.
The weekend's strikes are a stark reminder of the escalating militancy in the
country ahead of the visit, scheduled for Monday, of the chairman of the United
States Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, and US envoy for Pakistan
and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke.
They are due to discuss with Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani and the
government a joint strategy to eliminate the leadership of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda. It appears that militants and Washington have chosen Pakistan as
their new field on which to wrestle.
Asia Times Online has learnt that the US officials want broader and more direct
participation of their civilian officials in Pakistan, without the intervention
of the Pakistan armed forces or the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
Pakistani President Asif Zardari, the Pakistani ambassador in Washington,
Husain Haqqani, and Holbrooke recently discussed a mechanism for new rules of
engagement, at a secret meeting in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The
parties decided on the issues on which the Pakistan army would be taken on
board, and on those that would be dealt with separately through the Pakistani
Ministry of Interior and the government of Pakistan.
This plan will raise the US's involvement in Pakistan to an all-time high,
possibly including clandestine special operations, beside stepped-up
intelligence-sharing.
A section of influential American military thinkers, however, believe that US
over-involvement has already caused a severe erosion of US influence in the
Middle East and South Asia, and that if the present cycle of involvement is not
curtailed, it could be disastrous for American interests. Top jihadi circles
close to Taliban leader Mullah Omar have also boasted that the more the
American involvement, the more the jihadi plans will succeed.
The Pakistani security forces have so far failed to break militant networks,
although they uncovered a safe house in Attock (a town in Punjab province near
North-West Frontier Province) following the attack in Lahore on the Sri Lankan
cricket team early last month. This implies that the militants have established
various active cells all around Islamabad and other important cities of Punjab
from where the ruling civil and military establishment comes.
The Chakwal area, where Sunday's attack on the mosque occurred, is where the
bulk of the army's personnel comes from, and to date such incidents have been
rare.
The new wave of attacks targeting Islamabad and Punjab - the nation's largest
province - are not aimed at destroying Pakistan or to setting up a
Taliban-style government. Rather, the attacks aim to force Pakistan to be
neutral in the "war on terror", leaving the militants and the Americans to
settle their dispute in Afghanistan alone.
This is unlikely at present, as mentioned above, because the US is increasing
its influence in Pakistan by directly overseeing operations to eliminate
al-Qaeda and militants by bypassing the ISI. Again, as mentioned, this carries
with it dangers.
Colonel Douglas MacGregor (retired), in a paper presented to the US National
Defense University on April 2, emphasized:
The US can and should avoid direct involvement in most 21st-century conflicts.
When conflicts or crises involve US forces, the use of American military power
should be limited or terminated before the cumulative human and political costs
defeat the original purpose of the US military action.
The principal strategic purpose for which US armed forces will fight in the
21st century involves securing American prosperity, and where necessary,
extending American security to geographical areas vital to US and allied
prosperity. Douglas argued that prolonged military involvements only erodes US
influence and entices other regional players to meddle.
This strategy
does not change America's policy stance on Islamist terrorism. The exportation
of Islamist terrorism against the US and its allies must remain a permanent red
line in US national military strategy. Governments that knowingly harbor
terrorist groups must reckon with the very high probability that they will be
subject to attack. However, long-term, large-scale American military
occupations, even to ostensibly train indigenous forces to be mirror images of
ourselves, are unwise and should be avoided.
Iranian interests gained prominence in Baghdad because Tehran's agents of
influence wear an indigenous face while America's agents wear foreign uniforms
and carry guns. And Iran will remain the dominant actor in Iraq so long as it
maintains even the thinnest veil of concealment behind the facade of the [Nuri]
Maliki government and its successors.
The growing US
involvement in the region is seen in a different light in jihadi circles, as
renowned jihadi leader Abdullah Shah Mazhar told Asia Times Online:
Mullah
Omar says one thing very clearly. There is no need to seek advancement in
technology to counter the US. They are far superior. Suppose we go one step
ahead in technology, they would already be ahead by several steps to counter
us. The better strategy is to keep them engaged in our style of warfare, keep
them engaged in these rocks and mountains and let them drain.
The
US has already run up a bill of US$700 billion for its wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Adding Pakistan as a new theater will only add to this cost. And
in return, it will lead to growing influence for Russia, China and Iran - and
last but not least, the militants.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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