Karzai gains from opposition's disarray
By Killid Correspondents
KABUL - After a series of well-known Afghan politicians announced their
candidacy, the upcoming presidential election was widely expected to become a
turning-point in the country's history. But most of the big names have declined
to register, leaving what critics say is a weak challenge to President Hamid
Karzai's re-election.
Although Karzai is widely said to be ineffective, many analysts expect that the
divisions in the opposition will lead to him winning a landslide in the
elections, scheduled for August 20. This raises the question - why did Karzai's
opponents back down?
Critics allege that the opposition to Karzai - a collection of former
government officials, businessmen and warlords - were unable to decide on a
united stance, and that the leading contenders - Gul
Agha Sherzai, Ashraf Ghani, Ahmed Ali Jalali - were unable to choose a common
representative.
"Everyone has an ego and no one wanted to allow anyone else to take the center
stage," said Jalali, the former interior minister.
Many say that candidates will peddle their support for privilege and fame. "As
soon as weak candidates realize that they can't win the election [alone], they
will give their votes to a more powerful candidate and in return they will ask
for some privileges," according to Said Jawad Hussaini, president of the
Afghanistan-e-Jawan party.
For other potential candidates, the issue might have been losing privileges,
not gaining them. For instance, Zalmay Khalilzad, former US ambassador to
Kabul, was widely rumored to be a top contender for the presidency.
Numerous tribal groups held demonstrations in favor of his candidacy, and he
even convened a large meeting in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates to discuss
Afghan politics and reconstruction. But analysts say that he may have decided
against running as under the Afghan constitution he would have to relinquish
his American citizenship to do so.
Similar sentiments might have forced Jalali, another American citizen, from
giving up his candidacy. It is also widely rumored that Jalali and another
candidate, Anwar-ul-haq Ahadi, quit the race because of files the Afghan
security forces have on them that they were reluctant to have open to public
scrutiny. Jalali's chief of staff, Ajmal Shinwari, denies such accusations.
Rafiq Ahmad Shaheer, a lecturer at Herat University, said Ahadi might have been
dissuaded from running because of pressure from his party, the
Pashtun-nationalist group Afghan Millat.
Karzai's deft maneuvering has also stymied the opposition. Karzai replaced his
first vice president, Ahmad Zia Massoud, with Qasim Fahim, in a move that split
the opposition. Fahim is a leading figure associated with the United Front, and
it is widely believed that Karzai gave him a vice presidential seat to ensure
his support.
"Karzai chose him because he wanted to weaken the National United Front and
gain the support of jihadi leaders," said Dr Muhajudin Mehdi, a political
observer.
Karzai's move is also in keeping with the time-honored tradition of balancing
out the representation from various ethnic groups. "This is why candidates are
trying to choose their vice presidential candidates from other ethnic groups,"
said Abdullah Uruzgani, a researcher and member of the Andisha Foundation, a
think-tank.
Karzai is playing the game deftly, he said, and other candidates have not been
able to use vice presidential appointments to their advantage, he adds. "Ashraf
Ghani was expected to choose powerful vice presidents, but on the contrary, he
chose some not very well-known people and this shows that he is not serious,"
Uruzgani said.
Most of the candidates lack a support network within the country, while Karzai
has built just a strong network over the last few years.
Karzai is thought to have the backing of many tribal elders, ulema (scholars),
and other influential figures, who can mobilize support for him come election
time. Jalali, Ghani and Khalilzad all live in the United States, making it
difficult to cultivate such support networks here.
Moreover, many candidates may have lacked international backing as well. In an
age where political support from international countries is crucial, this may
have further discouraged some from running.
"The candidates' resignations show that important decisions in Afghanistan
cannot be made independently," said Ghulam Mujtaba Rasoli, an Afghan political
expert. "The support of powerful countries has a role in every decision made in
Afghanistan, including the presidential election."
"Although the fourth article of the Afghan constitution claims the right of
sovereignty for its people," he adds, "we can not deny the influences of some
foreign and neighboring countries. Considering the decades of war in
Afghanistan it is impossible to make decisions independently, which is a
striking example of what I am talking about."
Most importantly, the US could not find another candidate to back, despite
trying.
The Obama administration has proved much more critical of Karzai than the
previous administration, and in many cases officials have openly criticized the
Afghan president. United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called
Afghanistan a "narco state" and Obama has said that "Karzai should get out of
from under his bunker and attend to his country".
A recent report from the London's Guardian newspaper declared that US officials
were trying to limit Karzai's power by appointing a prime minister. This did
not succeed and the US was left without options or alternatives in Afghanistan.
Experts say that none of the other major candidates received US backing,
something that also dissuaded them from running.
The result of most leading candidates dropping out of the race is that most
experts believe that Karzai will easily win the election. "Without any
opposition, and with his support networks in place, Karzai will have an easy
time in August," said Haroun Mir, a policy analyst with the Afghanistan Center
for Research and Policy Studies.
"Karzai is a very clever politician," he adds. "No one has been able to beat
him, and he has proven that even if he can't run the country well, he can
certainly play politics well."
(Killid is an independent Afghan media group which has been an Inter Press
Service partner since 2004. This is from the Killid Weekly.)
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