BRUSSELS - After Afghanistan, Pakistan is the new battleground for the United
States-led war against Islamic militants, with fighting raging in the Swat area
of North-West Frontier Province and threatening to spread not only to the
country's urban areas but to Iran and beyond.
Washington is acutely aware of a possible regional crisis and is doing its
utmost to convince its allies in Europe to muster all possible support for its
client Pakistani establishment before the crisis gets out of hand.
The US's backroom lobbying helped Pakistan obtain commitments of over US$5
billion in aid at April's international donors' conference in Tokyo. But while
the Barack Obama administration has made a strong case for increased European
support, the difficult part is to agree on the best arrangement under which
European capitals could help Pakistan.
The first-ever European Union-Pakistan summit scheduled for June 16-17 in
Brussels will primarily focus on counter-terrorism. Leading analysts contend,
however, that what really is at stake is Pakistan's strategic relations with
the West, given its growing economic dependence of foreign aid.
In preparation for the summit, senior officials gathered in Brussels last week
at the European Commission (EC) for a conference entitled "Making the
Difference". A senior diplomat explained to Asia Times Online that it was
purely a result of American lobbying that European countries had agreed to new
financing for Pakistan over the next two years to provide additional support to
social safety nets, human development and pro-poor development expenditures.
Donors also reaffirmed their commitment to existing programs (currently
totaling more than $15 billion) for ongoing and medium-term development
initiatives aimed at helping Pakistan reduce poverty and enhance economic
growth. In April, the EU also announced 50 million euros (US$70 million) in
yearly aid for Pakistan's counter-terrorism operations.
"But this does not mean a free lunch for Pakistan," a senior bureaucrat at the
EC who looks after external affairs told Asia Times Online. "We will certainly
observe developments in Pakistan in the first year and if Pakistan improves
governance, institution-building and takes effective counter-terrorism
measures, Europe will ensure Pakistan's aid.
"But if Pakistan does not perform during the first year, in the second year,
its aid package will have to be curtailed. The purpose of this whole exercise
in supporting Pakistan is to establish a regional alliance against terrorism
and Pakistan has to play its role with other players.
"Pakistan has reservations about India, but India plays a very crucial role in
the region against terror and we hope that the newly elected Indian government,
with a better mandate, will further enhance this cooperation. In this
situation, Pakistan has to harmonize with the regional and global alliance
against terrorism," the official said.
Islamabad has very high hopes for the EU-Pakistan summit, especially after the
very successful Tokyo conference, and it expects to lay the foundations for
long-term economic ties with Europe.
"Pakistan wants a free-trade agreement [FTA] with Europe and [Pakistani
President] Asif Zardari wants to discuss such a FTA with EU officials, even
though the EU thinks it is too early to do this," a senior Far Eastern diplomat
at the EC told Asia Times Online.
"The whole emphasis [at the summit] will be that Pakistan must deliver first.
Pakistan will be given a list of commitments, and at the top of this will be madrassa
[Islamic seminary] reforms," the diplomat added.
Pakistan has made some progress in stopping hate material concerning the West
and India from being taught in schools, as well as Koranic material promoting
jihad. Yet concerns remain that corrective action has not been taken against madrassas,
often seen as hotbeds for breeding militants.
The Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) episode reinforced the notion that over 17,000 madrassas
in Pakistan could cause serious problems. The mosque, which supported the
Taliban and had strong ties to militants and acted as a haven for them, was
stormed by security forces in July 2007, with much bloodshed on both sides.
There are now proposals that EU and Pakistan officials work jointly to purge
those seminaries which help with terror financing and which promote radical
Islam. The EU has proposed that civilian law-enforcement agencies like the
police, rather than the military, play a bigger role in monitoring the madrassas.
Looming large, though, are al-Qaeda and the Taliban, which remain undefeated in
the eight years since the Taliban were driven from power in 2001. They will do
their utmost to derail any new Pakistan alliance with the West.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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