More of the same for Baitullah's fighters
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - With speculation still swirling over the fate of the leader of the
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baitullah Mehsud, possibly killed in a US
Predator drone attack in the South Waziristan tribal area last Wednesday, the
viability of his group has come into question.
Some analysts say the TTP, the main Taliban militant umbrella group in Pakistan
primarily in conflict with the central government, will fall apart and that its
various groups will operate as stand-alone outfits.
The Pakistan army's Inter-Services Public Relations Department has also weighed
in with some stories about the TTP, which need
to be treated cautiously, given the department's dubious record in the days
following the drone attack.
It reported the deaths of Waliur Rahman, Baitullah's deputy and spokesman, as
well as that of Hakimullah Mehsud, a potential successor to Baitullah. The men
were said to have died in a shootout during a meeting to discuss the
succession.
Both men have since personally contacted the media to dismiss the stories. The
Taliban have said they will shortly present proof that Baitullah is alive.
An evolving militant umbrella
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Taliban Movement of Pakistan) embraces militants
from Afghanistan and Pakistan who have pledged their allegiance to Taliban
leader Mullah Omar. They therefore call themselves Taliban, although they have
imbibed al-Qaeda's Takfiri ideology, which means the state of Pakistan is Darul
Harb (a place of war) and the Pakistan army, being an ally of the
United States, is heretical.
The group was founded in the South Waziristan and North Waziristan tribal areas
on the border with Afghanistan in 2007, and spread quickly to other areas. The
TTP does not have a formal infrastructure, such as a central treasury, arsenal
or war room, despite this being reported by the Inter-Services Public Relations
Department.
Instead, various warlords with independent resources and strategies work for
the same cause and share the same ideology. Occasionally, they cooperate with
one another. For instance, Qari Zafar, a leader of the Pakistani militant group
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, has collaborated with Baitullah.
A big player in the TTP orbit is Mullah Fazlullah - nicknamed "Radio Mullah"
and the leader of the pro-Taliban Tehrik-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi in
Malakand Agency.
Baitullah sent some fighters to aid Fazlullah in the early stages of the
Pakistan military's operations in his area in 2007 and also to Swat this year.
But Fazlullah essentially fought the army independently using his own
resources.
Qari Ziaur Rahman, the commander-in-chief of the Taliban in Kunar and Nuristan
provinces in Afghanistan and Bajaur Agency and Mohamand Agency in Pakistan, is
also an anti-establishment element. He set up links with Baitullah after the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Operation Lion Heart of 2008 which
targeted insurgents in the Kunar region. The interaction has been limited,
however.
Through Hakimullah Mehsud, Baitullah's cousin, Baitullah has relatively direct
coordination with the Taliban in Dera Adam Khel, a town in Pakistan's
North-West Frontier Province, and the Orakzai and Kurram agencies in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan.
The binding force between these various groups is ideology and it is possible
that should Baitullah be dead, they will not select a new chief and work even
more independently, but pledging Mullah Omar as their figurehead and al-Qaeda
as their ideology. There is no chance Fazlullah will lay down his arms.
The fact is, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan is already a shadowy, loose nexus of
essentially independent groups without too many formal structures and
hierarchies. As such it is a difficult group to pin down, let alone destroy,
and this will remain the case with or without Baitullah.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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