Concerns over post-poll unrest in Afghanistan
By Sayed Yaqub Ibrahimi
KABUL - As Afghanistan prepares for presidential and provincial elections on
Thursday it faces the twin specters of an escalating insurgency and the threat
of post-ballot political unrest.
A major suicide bombing rocked the capital, Kabul, on Saturday, killing at
least 10 and injuring 100 more. Fighting has broken out in various regions
around the country, a rocket attack has closed the airport in the western city
of Herat and some candidates have canceled campaign appearances for fear of
assassination attempts.
With concerns over low voter turnout and widespread fraud plaguing the process,
many are beginning to question whether the
polls will have any legitimacy among the population.
And remarks by some senior members of the presidential candidates' campaigns,
notably from a representative of one of the main challengers, have raised the
possibility of mass protests if the results are seen as having been rigged.
The first of the warning signals came in a late July interview in The National,
a newspaper based in the United Arab Emirates, with the campaign manager for
leading presidential contender Dr Abdullah Abdullah telling a reporter that his
faction would not recognize the re-election of the incumbent President Hamid
Karzai.
"We will not accept it," Abdul Satar Murad told the newspaper. "[Karzai] cannot
win unless he resorts to large-scale corruption. So we will not accept that.
The nation is not voting for him. He only gets votes through his governors and
by corruption."
Karzai is the favorite in the poll, and is almost certain to secure another
term in office. The only serious question is whether Abdullah can pull enough
votes to deprive the president of a first-round victory.
In 2004, Karzai easily triumphed over a field of 17 challengers, gaining 54% of
the vote on election day. According to the constitution, if no candidate
received more than 51% of the vote, the top two will face off in a second
round.
The possibility of a runoff has appeared more likely in recent weeks. Officials
from the Independent Election Commission have said privately that the campaign
will continue for "a few more months", and two recent opinion polls suggested
that Karzai does not command the voting strength to gain a first-round win.
But Abdullah's camp has put up an unexpectedly strong showing, and, according
to Murad, will be prepared to protest if things do not go their way.
"There will be a big demonstration," he told The National. "[There will be]
street demonstrations, and it will turn bad. The country will land in the
middle of a crisis."
But the major candidates, including Abdullah himself, have backed away from any
threat of violence.
"We look to the stability of Afghanistan as a necessity for every move and
change," Abdullah told the media shortly after the interview in The National.
"We will never do anything under any circumstances which threatens stability in
Afghanistan."
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, another top presidential contender, told the Institute
for War and Peace Reporting in June that Afghans "would not take any attempt to
steal the election lying down", but his campaign manager, Ajmal Abedi, has
insisted his people would not resort to any attempt to foment violent protests.
"We strongly oppose post-election violence," Abedi said. "Maybe there will be
fraud during the elections, but we should be patient, and not go towards
violence. We should solve the issue through legal channels."
Karzai's campaign dismisses any allegations of attempted fraud, and says that
such rumors are circulated to serve certain candidates' political interests.
"These rumors are started by candidates who know that the results of the
elections will not be in their favor," said Wahid Omar, spokesperson for
Karzai's campaign. "One way or another they want to challenge the results. They
have created a concern that, if candidate A does not win the election,
Afghanistan will go towards violence."
The Karzai campaign, he emphasized, had no such aim, "We are sure of the
people's votes. We will not advocate violence, no matter what the results of
the election. If Dr Abdullah wins, or somebody else, we will accept it calmly."
No one has been officially sanctioned for spreading rumors of violence;
however, following the article in The National, many pointed fingers at
Abdullah's team. For their part, supporters of Abdullah are blaming Karzai for
conducting a propaganda campaign against them.
Fazel Sancharaki, spokesperson of the National United Front and a supporter of
Abdullah, said that the Karzai team exaggerated the issue of violence to such
an extent that Afghans and the international community now thought that
Abdullah was trying to sabotage the elections.
"Karzai wants to silence his rivals," Sancharaki said. "This is definitely why
Karzai's team is spreading these rumors. He wants to force people to accept the
results of the elections."
Karzai's campaign strongly denies such allegations.
The international community, which is overseeing the elections process, has
also expressed concern over the possibility of violence.
Kai Eide, United Nations special representative to Afghanistan, told the media
that he had delivered a forceful message to all of the candidates about the
issue. He called for unity and shared responsibility, to avert any out break of
unrest.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the former US ambassador to Afghanistan, caused a stir with
an op-ed piece in the Financial Times, published on August 11. If violence were
to break out, he warned, it could be very dangerous for the mission of the
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.
"There is the danger that one or more of the contenders might not accept the
declared results, leading to protracted violence, probably focused on Kabul. It
is unclear whether Afghan security forces could control the situation on their
own, or would require assistance from the ISAF. This could be a no-win
situation, with serious consequences for the ISAF role in Afghanistan, whether
it participated in the pacification effort or not."
Afghanistan has experienced years of war and crisis in which the gun has had
the last word. A number of analysts inside Afghanistan warn that the capacity
for violence exists if a candidate chooses not to accept defeat.
"The situation is not at all conducive to elections," said political analyst
Ahmad Saeedy. "In Helmand province, for example, it is not possible for
everybody to participate. So when boxes full of votes come from that place,
some candidates will say that this is fraud. They will protest and fan the
flames of violence."
Recent events in neighboring countries have contributed to the feeling of
unease, he added.
"The post-election violence in Iran has had an influence on Afghanistan as
well," Saeedy said. "And on the other hand, the armed opposition is also trying
to bring the legitimacy of the elections into question."
If protests begin, Saeedy added, they might be difficult to control.
"There are guns in Kabul and other provinces," he said. "And the enemy also has
a presence in the capital. If there are protests, everybody can take advantage
of the opportunity to pursue his own ends. This is not a distant possibility."
The Interior Ministry has issued stern warning that they will deal harshly with
anyone trying to foment violence.
Kabul residents are also worried about the possibility of post-election
trouble.
"When candidates talk about violence, it means they are thinking of coups and
revolutions," Mohammad Mansoor, a resident of Kabul, said. "So why are they
running for office? If people do not like a person, they will not vote for him.
If the candidates are not prepared to respect the vote of the people, and if
they will not accept the results, then why should we vote? It is better if they
just decide among themselves."
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