Seven steps to peace in Afghanistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KABUL - Election officials in Afghanistan on Friday began counting the votes
cast in Thursday's presidential and provincial polls. In capitals from Kabul to
Islamabad to Washington, officials are counting the days until they can engage
the Taliban and bring them into the mainstream political process.
Approximately 40%-50% of the 17 million registered voters made it to the 6,202
polling centers scattered across the country, according to a senior election
official, Zekria Barakzai. This was in defiance of calls from the Taliban to
boycott the vote, although at
least 26 people were killed in election-related violence in 73 attacks in 15
provinces.
Preliminary results are expected within the next few days. Ahead of the vote,
President Hamid Karzai led his main challengers - former foreign minister Dr
Abdullah Abdullah, former planning minister Ramzan Bashardost and former
finance minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai - by some way. It is not clear whether
Karzai will win the 51% of the votes cast needed to avoid a second-round
runoff.
Abdullah's team has already complained of "very large-scale" fraud in at least
three of 34 provinces, according to the Associated Press.
Others have cast doubt on the credibility of the elections. But this is not so
much the point. Whoever wins or loses, the shadow of the Taliban hangs across
the country. After eight years since they were thrown from power, it is now
accepted by American and European leaders that some form of reconciliation with
the Taliban is the only way in which the insurgency can be defeated.
The head of the United States Central Command, General David Petraeus, told the
BBC this week that "there would have to be talks with insurgents at a local
level, though probably not at this stage with senior Taliban leaders". British
Foreign Secretary David Miliband also indicated in a recent speech that the
government should be prepared to talk to moderate tribal leaders associated
with the Taliban.
Senior
officials in Kabul have told Asia Times Online that the process of talking with
elements of the Taliban is already underway. More substantial talks would most
likely take place outside the country, with Turkey, the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) and Saudi Arabia possible venues.
The momentum for talks gathered pace in the few months before Thursday's
elections with the realization that counter-insurgency operations alone are not
the solution. This is despite the fact that tens of thousands of additional
troops have been pumped into the country this year, bringing the total number
to more than 100,000.
Multiple channels are being used to get the process moving. Some have involved
senior American officials and military commanders and the Afghan government,
which has roped in former Taliban leaders such as Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef,
Abdul Wakeel Muttawakil and Senator Moulvi Arsala Rehmani (above).
A former British and European Union senior diplomat, Irishman Michael Semple,
expelled from Afghanistan in 2007 for talking to the Taliban without approval
from Afghan (read US) officials, has also been involved. He now lives in the
Pakistani capital Islamabad and has been using his contacts with the Taliban on
behalf of London. Semple is married to a Pakistani woman, spent 30 years in
Afghanistan, speaks fluent Dari and is a self-declared Muslim.
Taliban sources recently told Asia Times Online that all backroom negotiations
had ended a few months ago when Taliban leader Mullah Omar told Saudi Arabian
intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz, through the Taliban's supreme
commander Mullah Bradar, that such talks were not possible.
"It would be wrong to interpret that message [from Mullah Omar] as stopping the
talks," Rehmani told Asia Times Online during an interview at his Kabul
residence, while confirming that a message had been relayed.
Rehmani should know.
He is from the Paktika tribe which originates along the border with Pakistan's
South Waziristan tribal area. He was minister of religious affairs during the
Taliban's regime in the late 1990s, but after the invasion of 2001 he severed
his ties with the Taliban and moved to Islamabad. Rehmani later returned to
Afghanistan to throw his support behind the Karzai government. He is now a
senator.
Although two other former Taliban officials are involved in the initiative to
talk to the Taliban, Rehami enjoys some advantages. Mullah Zaeef is not trusted
by the Americans as they see him as still sympathetic to the Taliban, while
former foreign minister Muttawakil is not trusted by some of the Taliban.
Rehami uses his extensive tribal connections to create channels of
communication with the Taliban. He is also in almost daily contact with the
British Embassy in Kabul, as well as mixing comfortably with Western diplomats.
"I can confirm that seven stages have been agreed on by the Afghan government
to deal with the Taliban, and at present the negotiations are in the first and
primary phase," Rehami said, without mentioning the obvious inevitable
involvement of certain Western governments.
"It would be incorrect to say that the talks have been terminated. You have to
appreciate that this is a very complex situation on both sides. From the Afghan
government side, several countries are behind [it] and everybody has their own
agenda. The same on the Taliban side. There are several groups, like al-Qaeda,
the Uzbeks and other nationals who often intervene and influence the process.
Therefore, we need to deal with multiple factors from both sides," Rehami said.
"All previous manipulations of the past apart, I assure you that within a week
of the election process being over, a major change in behavior is forthcoming
from both sides. This is the result of our working with the Taliban.
"The Americans also don't have much choice but to show flexibility. It is
because of their rigid behavior that the Taliban have not been suppressed, in
fact, they increased [their activities]. Previously, they were only in
Afghanistan, where they are a serious threat. But they are gearing their
activities for the Central Asian republics of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The
Americans realize that they have to move quickly," Rehami said.
"After last year [talks involving the Taliban in the Saudi city of Mecca] a
regular dialogue process started and we opened up channels of communication
with the Taliban. But suddenly, the new [Barack] Obama administration announced
its review on Afghanistan and there were suggestions of new tactics to be
implemented in the conflict against the Taliban. Mullah Omar's response to that
was one of tit-for-tat. So he also announced a war strategy and informed Prince
Muqrin that no more talks were possible. But that was more a political posture
than anything real," Rehami said.
All the same, Rehami conceded that since that announcement, nobody had been
able to hold direct talks with the Taliban at a senior level.
"Michael Semple tried to use his contacts, but these were at a low level. At
the maximum, he could negotiate at the level of Gramser ulaswali [the
Gramser district in Helmand province in Afghanistan] with very low-level
Taliban commanders.
"I did not get the chance to directly hold talks with any senior-level Taliban
commanders, but being a tribal leader, I have been communicating with the
Taliban leaders through relatives and common friends. In that process, we have
made progress. We have exchanged written messages in which we have put our
demands. We have also succeeded in getting approval from the Americans and
British for some concessions for the Taliban if they agree to reconciliation,"
Rehami said.
"We now have the mandate to bargain with the Taliban, as a first step, for them
to stop attacks on Afghanistan's infrastructure, such as bridges, buildings and
dams. They would also stop suicide attacks in public places. But this is a
conflict, and it is not easy to implement demands.
"If the Taliban comply with this primary demand, then the next steps [out of
seven] would begin and the Taliban would be more facilitated. For instance, the
Taliban would be allowed to open offices in countries like Turkey, the UAE and
Saudi Arabia from where regular rounds of talks could be held between the
Taliban and the Afghan government.
"These talks would include issues like the withdrawal of troops and the setting
up of a new political government with the participation of the Taliban and
other insurgent groups," Rehami said.
Apart from talks with the Taliban, a channel of negotiations is still going on
with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (see
Holbrooke reaches out to Hekmatyar Asia Times Online, April10, 2009).
Hekmatyar is the leader of the Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA). The 61-year-old
engineer from Kunduz province and his anti-government fighters are responsible
for large numbers of attacks against Afghan and international forces, mainly in
the northeast of the country.
Former members of the HIA who are now involved in the political process are in
contact with Hekmatyar. Also playing a part is former interim prime minister
and one of the pioneers of the Islamic movement from mid-1960s, Ahmad Shah
Ahmadzai.
Ahmadzai confirmed to Asia Times Online that he had recently exchanged messages
with Hekmatyar and that he was trying to pave the way for his peaceful return
to Kabul.
Hekmatyar was a mujahideen commander in the fight against the Soviets in the
1980s and a key player in the bloody civil war that followed the withdrawal of
the Soviets in 1989. He twice served as premier before the Taliban came to
power in 1996.
"The case of reconciliation with Hekmatyar is far easier than that of the
Taliban. His party is registered and present in parliament in big numbers. All
important ministries are held by his men. Several governors of Afghanistan are
his former loyalists. If he reconciles, there will be no difficulty in
including him in the political mainstream. And also, we have now agreed to his
viewpoint, that foreign troops should announce a schedule for withdrawal,"
Rehami said.
"The thing is, they are all Pashtuns who are part of the insurgency and we are
trying to convince the Western forces that Afghanistan can only be ruled by
Pashtuns. There is no solution possible without them. Hamid Karzai cannot be
reckoned as a Pashtun leader as he does not have any following among the
Pashtun. He is only an individual without influence. Statecraft simply does not
work like that," Rehami said.
Rehami believes that all Taliban commanders are now in favor of reconciliation,
the only problem being a very stubborn Mullah Omar.
"We are slowly spreading our communication, we are talking to all Taliban
commanders, not just with Mullah Omar. Our emphasis, however, is to talk to
members of the shura-e-Rahbari [leadership council of the Taliban]. If
we convince them all, Mullah Omar will have to follow their advice because he
cannot fight alone."
All the same, Mullah Omar has a habit of getting his way. In 2001, the Taliban shura,
looking down the barrel of a gun following the September 11, 2001, attacks on
the United States, wanted to expel al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was a
guest in Afghanistan and the main reason the US wanted to "bomb Afghanistan
back to the Stone Age".
To a man, the shura - which included Rehmani - wanted bin Laden out, but
Mullah Omar prevailed. Bin Laden stayed, and the Taliban were driven from
power.
Ultimately, this will be the man who has to be persuaded, and the first steps
towards realizing this are well under way, regardless of which way Thursday's
votes add up.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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Senior
officials in Kabul have told Asia Times Online that the process of talking with
elements of the Taliban is already underway. More substantial talks would most
likely take place outside the country, with Turkey, the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) and Saudi Arabia possible venues.
