NEW YORK - The Barack Obama administration's rebranded "war on terror" -
"Overseas Contingency Operations" - is expected to feature high on the
sidelines of the 64th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New
York this week.
This could be a pivotal year in a war where borders are gradually expanding on
both sides. Al-Qaeda has significantly increased its presence in countries such
as Somalia, Algeria and Yemen, while the Americans have successfully brought
some Central Asian republics and India on board and is seeking to give them a
more explicit role.
For the US, though, the problems in Pakistan, Iraq and
Afghanistan remain as intractable as ever, especially in the latter country,
where coalition forces are suffering one of their worst years in terms of
casualties since the invasion of 2001.
There has also been an upward spiral of violence in the Tajik- and
Uzbek-majority northern districts of Afghanistan. There is an understanding in
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that with what looks like a
victory for President Hamid Karzai over his main rival Abdullah Abdullah in
August's elections, Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek minorities, which form the bulk of
the security forces in Kabul and in north Afghanistan, have turned a blind eye
to the insurgents' movements.
As a result, there has been an unprecedented surge in the Taliban's activities
in the north, especially around Mazar-e-Sharif, Kunduz and Baghlan, which are
to be used as alternative routes to Pakistan for NATO supply lines that will
now go via some Central Asian republics.
The close ties of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's administration to Iran
are also a serious headache for the US in the region.
But a major problem is emerging with signs of a head-on clash between the
Pakistani military and the political government, which, respectively, are close
to the hearts to the US military establishment and the Obama administration.
Over the past months, the Pakistan army under General Parvez Ashfaq Kiani has
played a big part in furthering the US's regional designs. It has crippled the
Taliban network in Mohmand and Bajaur (Pakistani tribal areas) through powerful
military operations. These areas had served as strategic backyards for the
Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nuristan, which not only posed an immense threat
to US bases in those provinces, but also provided an artery all the way to the
capital Kabul through Kapisa province. The military operation in Swat further
damaged the Taliban's assets.
Joint Pakistan and US operations eliminated two important leaders of the
al-Qaeda-related network in the area - Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah
Mehsud and Ilyas Kashmiri.
The US had planned to quickly complement these military successes with
political operations in Afghanistan as a start to the "endgame". This envisaged
a reconciliation process with the Taliban in the post-elections phase. But with
the results still being disputed, a period of uncertainty is dragging on much
longer than expected, giving the Taliban extensive room to play.
In Pakistan, problems loom. Last Friday, while addressing the International
Institute of Strategic Studies in London, President Asif Ali Zardari surprised
the world audience with a new proposal that marks a meaningful step in the
ongoing fight against terrorism and a possible breakthrough with India if Delhi
accepts his proposal to join the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP).
The proposal came at a time the president is about to co-host, with Obama and
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, a summit-level meeting of the FoDP aimed
at helping the nation overcome the economic and security challenges it faces.
The September 24 meeting on the sidelines of the General Assembly session will
mark the first anniversary of the launch of the initiative by Zardari.
As a goodwill gesture, Pakistan will not raise the issue of disputed Kashmir at
the United Nations - it will only be discussed at the level of the Organization
of Islamic Countries.
Zardari, though, faces difficulties with the military. The bad blood goes back
to Zardari's nomination as president after General Pervez Musharraf stepped
down in August 2008. The powerful Corps Commanders unanimously urged Kiani to
intervene, but he refused, saying he wanted democracy to take root in the
country and whomever was picked by the political parties should be elected.
Relations soured further when Zardari's administration this January sacked
retired Major General Mehmood Durrani as national security advisor after he
stated that the sole survivor of the militants who attacked Mumbai last
November, Ajmal Qasab, was a Pakistani national. The military was also upset by
a subsequent proposal (by the US) to place General Jehangir Karamat in that
position.
During one meeting on that issue, the army insisted that the position be kept
vacant, but Zardari angrily lambasted Kiani, reminding him that he was the
supreme commander of the armed forces by virtue of his designation as
president.
Kiani bit his lip, and subsequently visited the US, where he forged a good
relationship with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen. In the
US perception, Kiani is an intelligent, progressive and astute commander who
genuinely sees the Taliban as the enemy of Pakistan. In the past, elements in
the military have had close ties to the Taliban - some still do.
On March 17, when Zardari's government was under siege from opposition rallies
over a judicial crisis, the Pakistani intelligence sharpened differences
between Zardari's government and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. This allowed
Kiani to intervene and force Zardari to restore judges dismissed last year by
Musharraf.
Zardari and the security apparatus clashed again when the director general of
the Inter-Services Intelligence, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha,
challenged Zardari's close friend and advisor Dr Asim Hussain over alleged
corruption. Zardari promptly told Shuja Pasha to "mind your own business".
These rifts soon affected the "war on terror". Although both Zardari's
administration and the military establishment have a clear conviction to defeat
the Taliban, both parties want the credit exclusively.
Under special powers given to the military, under American pressure, the army
has waged a relentless and ruthless war on the Taliban, the likes of which has
never before been witnessed. As brutally as the Taliban did in the past, the
army abducts and beheads the Taliban.
This brought tremendous applause from Washington and Kiani emerged as a hero,
and the military's star was on the rise again. Pundits in Islamabad agree that
whether or not Kiani stages a coup, he will definitely stay on as army chief.
And recently, Kiani did manage to get rid of Asim Hussain, and Zardari could do
nothing about it.
The speculation now is that the military might decide around December this year
or early next year that Zardari's time as head of state is over.
In New York this week, Zardari, in front of world leaders, has the opportunity
to regain some lost ground against the military.
For example, Washington has pressed for a ground assault against militants in
the South Waziristan tribal area, stronghold of the slain Baitullah Mehsud. The
army, for tactical reasons, is unwilling to send in troops as it believes the
casualties would be too high, and with no guarantee of success. The government
in Islamabad has put its full weight in favor of immediate military operations.
Zardari argues that by not conducting operations, the militants will be able to
regroup and fight back. This is already happening.
In New York, Zardari will argue that any lapse in Pakistan, al-Qaeda's
international headquarters and the strategic backyard of the Taliban, would be
disastrous. The US will be listening, and also hoping that its main ally in the
region can sort out its internal divisions, otherwise the entire American
political and military initiative undertaken by the Obama administration will
be jeopardy.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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