NEW DELHI - The results of the recently held state assembly elections in
Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Delhi
have delivered an unambiguous message to the ruling United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) government and the country's largest opposition party, the right-wing
Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).
By-elections are important because they highlight local issues by reflecting
the quality of governance in a state. The Vidhan Sabha - also known as the
Legislative Assembly - is the lower house of the Indian state legislature
formed for a five-year term after which all seats are up for election.
After its ignominious defeat at the hands of the Congress in the
May general elections, the BJP turned in a surprisingly good performance in the
assembly polls, wresting nine of the 14 seats on offer. Most significantly, it
bagged five of the seven seats in Gujarat where it fared abysmally in the Lok
Sabha (Lower House) polls. This takes its tally in the 182-member Gujarat
assembly to 121, three more than the seats it won in the December 2007 assembly
elections, while the Congress strength has plummeted from 59 in 2007, to 55.
The party also cornered one assembly constituency in Uttarakhand, a state where
it had lost all five of its Lok Sabha seats in addition to the seventh seat
from Madhya Pradesh. There was also a big gain in Delhi, where two BJP
contestants delivered a shock to charismatic vote-catcher Chief Minister Sheila
Dixit by trouncing her candidates.
The BJP also secured a majority on its own in the Uttarakhand Assembly, taking
its tally to 36 in the 70-member House. In Madhya Pradesh, the ruling BJP won
one seat while in Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim, the ruling Congress and Sikkim
Democratic Front won the Tekkali and Namchi-Singhithang seats respectively .
Although the by-election results will not alter political equations in Delhi,
they have immense symbolic and psychological value. They have acted as a
psychological blow for the Congress, which had been basking in the afterglow of
a spectacular national poll this year. This time, the party scraped by with
just two seats in Gujarat, lost a precious seat to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh
and Uttarakhand and managed to retain a solo seat in its traditional bastion of
Andhra Pradesh.
The by-election results have thus triggered heated rounds of self-analysis
across the Congress rank and file. They have also spurred an intra-party
blame-game with state leaders holding poor candidate selection and the lack of
an effective strategy responsible for the Congress debacle.
Apart from encouraging introspection, the results will also hopefully temper
the party's cockiness - especially its "we can do without allies" stance - and
smugness over trouncing the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress leaders have
been reminded that in a democracy - when faced with the realities of a
fragmented polity - one can never predict popular mood. This will thus be the
biggest lesson for Congress after its Lok Sabha win.
For the BJP - besieged by dissidents and still reeling under a shocking general
defeat - the results have acted as the proverbial shot in the arm. The
underlying message for the party is that while it may be rudderless in New
Delhi, there is hope for it yet. Its local units are functioning effectively
and have even received the people's mandate. This verdict will not only help in
altering people's perceptions about the BJP's potential but also provide
demoralized party men with much-needed succor.
The electoral win may help the BJP notch up a few more political alliances.
From having a dozen-plus allies until last year, the party's isolation was
nearly complete with most of its "friends" deserting it. Consequently, the BJP
is left with barely four partners in its kitty - the Akali Dal in Punajb, the
Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the Asom Gana
Parishad in Assam.
The BJP can use these positive results to buy time and fend off the internal
rebellion that had threatened stalwarts like Lal Krishna Advani, Rajnath Singh
and Narender Modi. All three were under tremendous pressure to prove their
vote-garnering ability.
It would be hyperbolic to see the assembly results as a BJP "resurgence", but
senior party leaders can definitely leverage this psychological boost into
stronger positions within the organization. Rajnath Singh has already claimed
that the by-elections have proved "that the party was not losing ground in
states ruled by it".
However, the biggest beneficiary of these assembly elections has been Gujarat
chief minister Narendra Modi, who had to bear the brunt of criticism for the
BJP's defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. His victory, after his lackluster
performance in the Lok Sabha polls where the BJP managed only 15 of the 26
seats in Gujarat, has been most disconcerting for the Congress.
More so because the state is on Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi's
revivalist agenda. Gandhi had recently toured parts of Gujarat before the youth
Congress elections. The bypoll results have thus served as an important
barometer of BJP's and Modi's popularity in the state.
While the BJP can leverage its performance in the assembly election to boost
party morale, the Congress will do well to remember that Lok Sabha and assembly
polls are two different ballgames though the underlying democratic norm of
voter confidence holds true in both. The competing parties will keep this
valuable lesson in mind for the upcoming Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal
Pradesh assembly elections next month.
Neeta Lal is a widely published writer/commentator who contributes to
many reputed national and international print and Internet publications.
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