US orchestrates Pakistan-India talks
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
NEW YORK - The foreign ministers of Pakistan and India, meeting on the
sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York at the
weekend, did not agree on the resumption of formal talks between the countries.
However, their meeting - the first high-level contact between the countries
since July - sets the stage for Washington-mediated backchannel talks for which
Pakistan has already appointed a senior envoy, Riaz Mohammad Khan.
The central issues in this dialogue will be the regional "war on terror" and
the establishment of a "fair bargain" between India and Pakistan over their
respective interests in Afghanistan.
Indian External Affairs Minister S M Krishna and Pakistani
Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi met for over 100 minutes, while their
foreign secretaries had met earlier for even longer. The countries - which have
fought several wars and which still differ over divided Kashmir - revived a
peace initiative in 2004, but it stalled after Pakistan-based militants carried
out a deadly raid on the Indian city of Mumbai in November last year.
Speaking after the meeting, Krishna said he rejected a Pakistani proposal to
conduct informal talks while they waited for official dialogue to begin.
Qureshi described the talks as "frank, positive and honest", saying he had not
"minced any words" and that "negotiations are the only way for peaceful
resolution of [outstanding] issues between the two countries".
Qureshi continued, "Now the situation in Pakistan is ... against the militants
and in favor of peace and dialogue with India. We expect our Indian
counterparts to take advantage of this situation and they should also mold
public opinion in favor of dialogue."
Despite Krishna ruling out informal talks, the intervention of Washington is
making this happen, with Pakistan already assigning Khan as a special envoy. He
is a former foreign secretary and a current Pakistan Scholar of the Woodrow
Wilson Center in Washington.
Asia Times Online has learned that American officials will directly mediate and
oversee the process of backchannel negotiations.
Like the billions of dollars annually the United States is giving to Pakistan
in non-military and military aid and loans, the negotiations are primarily
meant to provide support in the fight against terror.
In a recent report by General Stanley A McChrystal, parts of which were leaked
to the press, the top US commander in Afghanistan said that India's political
and economic influence in Afghanistan was increasing, including significant
development projects and financial investment.
The report said the Afghan government was perceived by Islamabad to be
pro-Indian. "While Indian activities largely benefit the Afghan people,
increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional
tensions and encourage Pakistani counter-measures in Afghanistan or India."
A diplomat involved in the backchannel negotiations told Asia Times Online on
the condition of anonymity, "The US mediation is aimed to settle Pakistan
grievances over Indian interests in Afghanistan so that both countries can work
together for the mutual cause of defeating terrorism in the region."
The groundwork is already being laid for the talks, which will include
scholars, journalists and academics from Pakistan, India and the US to support
diplomats from those countries, as well as from Afghanistan.
The initial model for reconciliation between India and Pakistan has been drawn
from that of post-World War II United States and Soviet relations, in which
those two countries agreed not to meddle in Finland and Yugoslavia.
Under a similar model, India would reduce its presence in the southern Afghan
provinces bordering Pakistan. In return, India could consolidate its activities
around Mazar-e-Sharif, the capital of the northern province of Balkh, where
Pakistan would not interfere.
However, in this process, which is expected to begin after Afghan President
Hamid Karzai is confirmed for a second term in the coming months, the problem
remains the Taliban.
Players involved in the backchannel process told Asia Times Online that if the
US withdrew from Afghanistan and handed over power to the Taliban, regional
politics would return to square one. The old alliance of Russia, Tajikistan,
Iran and India would form against Pakistan and its Taliban allies, and the
elimination of militancy in areas like Kashmir would remain a dream.
"This is the big challenge in the backchannel talks, to find a force in the
Pashtun regions of Afghanistan that would be acceptable to the Western powers,
as well as to forces like India, Russia and Pakistan," said a diplomatic
source.
The administration of US President Barack Obama places much stock in Pakistan's
undivided support in the battle against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. By
facilitating better relations between Islamabad and Delhi, it is helping make
this happen.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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