Pakistan's military stays a march ahead
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - In an attempt to lend popular support to the United States-led "war
on terror", London and Washington orchestrated the victory of secular and
liberal political forces in Pakistan. A deal between then-president General
Pervez Musharraf and former premier Benazir Bhutto was agreed on which resulted
in the promulgation of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO).
Two years later, blowback from this deal threatens to throw the civilian
government into chaos, at the very time it is fighting to establish a new
operational control over the country's nuclear arsenal, and while a major
offensive is being waged against militants in the tribal areas.
The NRO, issued on October 5, 2007, granted amnesty to politicians, political
workers and bureaucrats who were accused of corruption, embezzlement,
money-laundering, murder and
terrorism between January 1, 1986 and October 12, 1999. Two of the main
beneficiaries were Bhutto and her husband, the current president, Asif Ali
Zardari. Bhutto, who had been living in exile, then returned to the country as
presumptive prime minister, but she was assassinated in December 2007.
Crucially, the NRO expires on November 28, exposing the hundreds of politicians
and bureaucrats who took advantage of it to legal action. The Ministry of Law
has issued a list of those affected, and it runs from the president to senior
members of the cabinet and diplomats.
The original instigators of the deal, Western capitals, are silent spectators
now while Pakistan's military establishment (mis)reads the situation in the
perspective of a withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan. It is preparing
a contingency plan under which all the major players in the Taliban-led
insurgency will be invited for talks.
The army has already approached powerful commanders in the Lashkar-e-Zil
(Shadow Army) section of the Afghan resistance. The message is that in the
event of a withdrawal of foreign troops, the Pakistan military should be viewed
as a friend, as it is in no way opposed to the Muslim resistance.
The message was sent to al-Qaeda through commander Ilyas Kashmiri, and to
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar through his commanders, Abdul Ghafour, Sirajuddin Haqqani
and Hakeemullah Mehsud. The message referenced a recent statement by British
Prime Minister Gordon Brown, "I have offered London as a venue in January. I
want that conference to chart a comprehensive political framework within which
the military strategy can be accomplished. It should identify a process for
transferring district by district to full Afghan control and set a timetable
for transfer starting in 2010."
Militant sources who spoke to Asia Times Online interpreted Brown's speech as
an indication that international support for the "war on terror" is waning and
that it would not be possible for the US to operate alone.
A perception of this wavering has also influenced the Pakistani military. An
armed forces spokesperson claimed recently that the army had reached the
headquarters of the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan after a month-long
campaign, and taken control of all key positions. The next step, under pressure
from the US, was to have been to move into neighboring North Waziristan, the
purported headquarters of al-Qaeda and the largest Taliban-led group, the
Haqqani network.
However, the military, given the signals coming out of Britain, Italy, France
and Canada, and the dithering of US President Barack Obama over sending more
troops to Afghanistan, is not prepared at this point to extend its operations.
Shivers in the corridors of power
On the domestic front, where the Pakistan army remains a major player, the
political situation has suddenly deteriorated with the publication of the names
of the people who will be affected when the NRO expires. According to some
reports, in several cases arrest warrants have already been issued. There is
speculation that several cabinet ministers will soon resign.
A former chief justice of the Supreme Court, Saeeduzzam Siddiqui, says that
even the immunity of the president could be challenged in court as no one is
above the law. "It [presidential immunity] is a colonial law which aimed to
protect the British governor-general and governors," Siddiqui told a television
channel. Zardari's name is top of the list, and if his immunity is successfully
challenged, the whole government could fall.
The deteriorating situation has emboldened the military to step into a
controversy over the country's nuclear arsenal, said to number between 80 and
100 warheads.
Earlier, Asia Times Online wrote that Zardari is already seriously at odds with
the military establishment over dealing with the Taliban-led insurgency and
there is a strong likelihood that his government will face a make-or-break test
within weeks in the form of mass street protests. (See
Nuclear fallout rocks Pakistan November 20, 2009)
Pakistan has reacted strongly to an article in The New Yorker by investigative
reporter Seymour Hersh on November 16, "Defending the arsenal", in which he
claimed that Pakistan was discussing "understandings" with the US that could
even see specialists take sophisticated nuclear triggers out of the country to
prevent them from falling into the wrong hands.
Obama's administration is clearly deeply concerned over the safety of
Pakistan's weapons, especially after militants last month entered the Pakistani
army headquarters in Rawalpindi and subjected it to a bloody 22-hour siege.
General Tariq Majid, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, said the
claims were "absurd and plain mischievous". This might be the case, but within
Pakistan the issue of the arsenal has turned into a major political row. In an
obvious attempt to address international concerns, the chairman of the National
Assembly's standing committee on defense, Azra Fazal Pechuho, rushed a report
of her 17-member committee into the assembly on November 11 seeking immediate
legal endorsement to the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) ordinance of 2007,
which sets out a multi-layered structure for the control of the nuclear
arsenal.
According to this report, the president would be chairman of the authority and
the prime minister would be the deputy chairman. Other members would be the
ministers for foreign affairs, defense, finance and interior, the chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, three services chiefs and the director
general of the Strategic Planning Division. The operational control of the
nuclear weapons is currently solely in the hands of the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of the Staff Committee, General Majid.
The Nuclear Command Authority bill seeks to bring into law an ordinance from
the time of former president Musharraf, to strengthen control over the nuclear
weapons. However, the bill was deferred by the speaker, Fehmida Mirza, on a
request from Parliamentary Affairs Minister Babar Awani, who gave no reason for
the move. Asia Times Online also wrote that obstacles created by former premier
Nawaz Sharif led to the deferment. Sharif, now leader of the opposition,
apparently sees Zardari as unreliable, and wants the authority to be headed by
the prime minister. He also urged that the leader of the opposition be a part
of the NCA.
It has emerged that Sharif's concerns were not the only reason for problems -
the military establishment has its own reservations on the Nuclear Command
Authority and these have contributed to the delay.
When the ordinance was promulgated, Musharraf was president as well as chief of
army staff, so the military had a strong representation in the authority. Now,
Zardari is believed to be too close to Washington, as is retired Lieutenant
General Khalid Kidwai, the director general of the Strategic and Planning
Division. The military wants the ordinance amended so that no foreign interests
can interfere with the authority.
An amended ordinance to this effect, that is, consolidating the military's role
in protecting the nuclear weapons, is likely to be presented to parliament next
week.
In every facet now, the military is positioning itself for a stronger and more
assertive role.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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